Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Preview and Odds - 12/28/2025

Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 28, 2025

Venue:  Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Buccaneers -5.5, Dolphins +5.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Buccaneers -5.5, Dolphins +5.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Buccaneers -5.5, Dolphins +5.5; Over/Under:  46.5 points

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  7-8 (2nd place, NFC South)

Miami Dolphins:  6-9 (3rd place, AFC East)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  lost their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 23-20.

Miami Dolphins:  lost their last game at home against the Cincinnati Bengals 45-21.

The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 7-8 record overall and they have a 2-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-4 in their home games, 4-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Carolina Panthers 23-20. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 18/26 passes for 145 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 71. Emeka Egbuka led the receivers with 40 receiving yards on 1 reception. Lavonte David led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Lavonte David and SirVocea Dennis each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Dolphins are entering this game with a 6-9 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-4 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Cincinnati Bengals 45-21. Quinn Ewers was the starting QB and he completed 20/30 passes for 260 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 81 and 1 TD. Jaylen Waddle led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jordyn Brooks led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 9 assisted tackles while Zach Sieler led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers haven't looked great in their games this season with their 7-8 record overall, but that record has them right near the top of the NFC South with a chance to win the division. They haven't been a great road team with their 4-4 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Dolphins haven't looked good in their games this season with their 6-9 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC East. They haven't looked great on their home field though with their 3-4 home record this season. The Dolphins had a terrible start to the season and started to go on a run which kept their playoff hopes alive, but those were killed in Pittsburgh with a loss to the Steelers and now they are waving the white flag on the season. Tua has been benched for the rest of the year and they are off a 45-21 loss at home to the Bengals in their last one with Quinn Ewers making his NFL debut. The offense wasn't terrible, but they were playing against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the Dolphins defense also gave up in that game. They gave up 45 points and that is going to be a big issue here since the Bucs still have a ton of talent on offense, even though they haven't looked great lately. The Bucs still have everything to play for though and they will be looking to bounce back after a bad loss to the Panthers in a game they should have won. The Buccaneers are going to be desperate for a win here, and they are running into the Dolphins at the right time with nothing left to play for. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game. 

Buccaneers Dolphins Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 28, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 27 Dolphins 13.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-4 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 5-9 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 5-10 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more. 11-2 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 9-5 OVER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game.

Miami Dolphins: 8-4 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 6-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses. 7-4 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. 13-5 OVER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 17-7 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  None.

Miami Dolphins:  None.

“The biggest thing is our confidence is good and our camaraderie is good. But that’s not enough right now. It’s the execution that we’re lacking and missing a few things here and there. Hopefully, in two weeks we get a chance to see them again and play for something." - Todd Bowles after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their last game. 

“I was calm and I was ready for the opportunity at hand. Felt like I had a great grasp of the game plan and felt like I had the confidence of the guys around me. I was fired up to get back out there on the field.” - Quinn Ewers after their loss against the Bengals in their last game. 

WR Evans, Mike

WR Egbuka, Emeka

WR Godwin Jr., Chris

TE Otton, Cade

QB Mayfield, Baker

RB Irving, Bucky

WR Waddle, Jaylen

WR Wilson Jr., Cedrick

WR Washington, Malik

TE Waller, Darren

QB Ewers, Quinn

RB Achane, De'Von

FB Ingold, Alec

Passing: Baker Mayfield (3,144)

Rushing: Rachaad White (539)

Receiving: Emeka Egbuka (910)

Touchdowns: Sean Tucker (8)

Passing: Tua Tagovailoa (2,660)

Rushing: De'Von Achane (1,267)

Receiving: Jaylen Waddle (910)

Touchdowns: De'Von Achane (12)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (4th season)

Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (4th season)