by Rod Pearson
Friday, Nov 01, 2024
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Monday, November 4, 2024
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Buccaneers +8.5, Chiefs -8.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Buccaneers +8.5, Chiefs -8.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Buccaneers +9, Chiefs -9; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Season Record
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-4 (2nd place, NFC South)
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-0 (1st place, AFC West)
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Recent Form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lost their last game at home against the Atlanta Falcons 31-26.
Kansas City Chiefs: won their last game on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders 27-20.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Analysis
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 4-4 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Atlanta Falcons 31-26. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 37/50 passes for 330 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 44. Cade Otton led the receivers with 81 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 2 TDs. Christian Izien led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while C. J. Brewer led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Chiefs are entering this game with a 7-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 4-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders 27-20. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 27/38 passes for 262 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing yards with 59 and 1 TD. Travis Kelce led the receivers with 90 receiving yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD. Nick Bolton led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Drue Tranquill, Leo Chenal, Tershawn Wharton, George Karlaftis, and Mike Pennel each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Buccaneers vs Chiefs Prediction
The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs have looked great in their games this season with their 7-0 record overall which has them leading the AFC West with the best record in the entire NFL. They are the only undefeated team left in the NFL this season and they have one of the best defenses in the NFL too. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers haven't looked great in their games this season with their 4-4 record overall, but that record still has them in 2nd place of the NFC South and right in the division race. Their offense has looked great all season as they have been putting up a ton of points in their games, but their defense has also been giving up a ton of points and it has been a big problem. They are coming off another loss in their last one at home to the Falcons and they are missing 2 of their best players on offense too. The Chiefs haven't looked great on offense this season with Mahomes making a ton of mistakes, but they will have no problem moving the ball at home against this defense. The Bucs are already missing key players on offense though and now they have to face one of the best defenses in the NFL so as good as they have looked lately, they will struggle a lot more to put up points in this one. The Chiefs defense will keep this offense at bay and that will allow the Chiefs to pull away more throughout the game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game.
Buccaneers Chiefs Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Monday, November 4, 2024 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 29 Buccaneers 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-12 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 1-5 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 rushing yards/game or less. 5-10 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 26-19 UNDER in all games. 13-7 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 6-1 UNDER after a 2 game home stand.
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-4 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 9-1 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 12-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 29-19 UNDER in all games. 17-5 UNDER in home games. 9-2 UNDER off a win against a division rival.
Key Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: L. David (LB) Injured - Ankle. S. Shepard (WR) Injured - Hamstring. W. Gholston (DL) Injured - Knee. M. Evans (WR) Injured - Hamstring. B. Bredeson (G) Injured - Shoulder. G. Gaines (DL) Injured - Calf. E. Deckers (LS) Injured - Hamstring. B. Irving (RB) Injured - Toe. T. Smith (SAF) Injured - Concussion.
Kansas City Chiefs: K. Hunt (RB) Injured - Quad. P. Mahomes (QB) Injured - Ankle. J. Smith-Schuster (WR) Injured - Hamstring. D. Nnadi (DT) Injured - Triceps. M. Danna (DE) Injured - Pectoral. N. Johnson (SAF) Injured - Concussion. D. Tranquill (LB) Injured - Chest. T. McDuffie (CB) Injured - Knee. E. Driskell (OT) Injured - Illness.
Notable Quotes
“It just looked like a mosh pit back there. ... Kind of one of those things (where) you get your hopes up, but then you realize it didn't work out. But for our guys to fight, to get into that situation, you really can't ask for much else.” - Baker Mayfield after their loss against the Falcons in their last game.
“It's easy in that situation to let them kind of get into the end zone because it's not really on them. It was on the offense that put them in position, but they stood their ground. The defense made a big-time stop and we were able to carry momentum into a win.” - Patrick Mahomes after their win against the Raiders in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Palmer, Trey
WR McMillan, Jalen
WR Shepard, Sterling
TE Otton, Cade
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB White, Rachaad
Kansas City Chiefs
WR Hopkins, Deandre
WR Watson, Justin
WR Worthy, Xavier
TE Kelce, Travis
QB Mahomes, Patrick
RB Hunt, Kareem
Statistical Leaders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: B. Mayfield (2189)
Rushing: B. Irving (395)
Receiving: C. Godwin (576)
Touchdowns: M. Evans (6)
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing: P. Mahomes (1651)
Rushing: K. Hunt (308)
Receiving: T. Kelce (335)
Touchdowns: X. Worthy (5)
Coaches:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (3rd season)
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (12th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
