by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Wednesday, Nov 24, 2021
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 28, 2021
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Where to Watch: Fox
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Buccaneers -3, Colts +3; Over/Under: 52 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.5, Colts +3.5; Over/Under: 51.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Buccaneers -3, Colts +3; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Season Record
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-3 (1st place, NFC South)
Indianapolis Colts: 6-5 (2nd place, AFC South)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Indianapolis Colts Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: won at home on Nov. 22 against the New York Giants 30-10.
Indianapolis Colts: won on the road on Nov. 21 against the Buffalo Bills 41-15.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis
The Buccaneers are coming into this game with a 7-3 record overall and they are 2-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They have lost 2 of their last 3 games but are coming into this one off of a win in their last game which snapped a 2 game losing streak that they were on. Tom Brady played well in that game as he completed 30/46 passes for 307 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Leonard Fournette led the team in rushing with 35 yards on 10 carries while Ronald Jones Jr. had 33 yards and 1 touchdown on 8 carries. Mike Evans led the receivers with 73 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while Rob Gronkowski also had 6 receptions for 71 yards. Chris Godwin caught the other touchdown pass in that one. Sean Murphy-Bunting led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles. Anthony Nelson and Cam Gill both recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while Mike Edwards and Steve McLendon both came up with interceptions with 1 each in that one. They have scored 309 points in their 10 games this season averaging 30.9 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 222 points against them allowing 22.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 406 YPG while their defense is allowing 322.1 YPG.
Indianapolis Colts Analysis
The Colts are coming into this game with a 6-5 record overall and they are 3-3 in their home games this regular season where they will be in this game. They have won 5 of their last 6 games and are coming into this one on a three-game winning streak after another win in their last game. Carson Wentz was alright in that game but he did not need to do much as he completed 11/20 passes for 106 yards and 1 touchdown while his team still beat the Bills 41-15. Jonathan Taylor had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 185 yards and 4 touchdowns on 32 carries. Jack Doyle led the receivers with 30 yards on 3 receptions while Taylor caught the 1 touchdown pass in that one. Bobby Okereke led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Kwity Paye recorded the only sack in that game for them while George Odum, Zaire Franklin, and Kenny Moore II all came up with 1 interception each in that one. They have scored 309 points in their 11 games this season averaging 28.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 245 points against them allowing 22.3 PPG. Their offense is averaging 364 YPG while their defense is allowing 358.5 YPG.
Buccaneers vs Colts Prediction
The Colts are coming into this matchup as a 3 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts have been playing much better recently since their awful start to the season winning 5 of their last 6 games. The Bucs have not been playing well in recent games and their offense has been struggling to score with Tom Brady leading them. The Colts just beat one of the best teams in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills, in their last game and they did it on the road in Buffalo winning by 26 points. The Colts are playing very well right now and are too hot to step in front of. The Bucs have not been playing well and they have been awful on the road this season. In 5 road games this season, they have all 3 of their losses on the season and in the 2 games they won they struggled only beating the Patriots by 2 points and the Eagles by 6. The best bet to place in this game is on the Colts to cover the spread here at home as they have a good chance of pulling off an upset in this game.
Buccaneers Colts Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 28, 2021 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Colts 38 Buccaneers 30.
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NFL Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 87-95 O/U in games where the line is +3 to -3. 224-259 O/U in all games. 91-120 O/U as a favorite. 27-35 O/U as a road favorite. 116-127 O/U in road games. 170-205 O/U when playing with 6 or less days rest.
Indianapolis Colts: 25-38 O/U as a home underdog. 21-32 O/U as a home underdog of 7 points or less. 105-139 O/U in home games. 53-65 O/U in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 120-147 O/U in dome games. 152-170 O/U in games played on turf.
Key Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: S. Miller (WR) Prob Sun - Toe injury. V. Vea (DL) Ques Sun - Knee injury. A. Brown (WR) Ques Sun - Ankle injury.
Indianapolis Colts: Q. Nelson (C) Ques Sun - Ankle injury. K. Willis (S) Out indefinitely - Calf injury. T. Lewis (DT) I-R - Knee injury.
Notable Quotes
"We're at a decent point but we can play a lot better than we've played. Hoping our best football is ahead of us." - Tom Brady after their win against the Giants in their last game.
"It meant a lot. I mean, that's something that we're going to have to do if we want to get to where we want to go at the end of the year. We're going to have to be able to put games away in the fourth quarter, we're going to have to put points up." - Jonathan Taylor on scoring 5 TDs in their win against the Bills in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Evans, Mike
WR Godwin, Chris
TE Howard, OJ
TE GRONKOWSKI, ROB
QB BRADY, TOM
RB Jones II, Ronald
Indianapolis Colts
WR Strachan, Mike
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR HILTON, TY
TE DOYLE, JACK
TE Alie-Cox, Mo
QB Wentz, Carson
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Statistical Leaders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: T. Brady (3177)
Rushing: L. Fournette (521)
Receiving: C. Godwin (782)
Touchdowns: M. Evans (10)
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: C. Wentz (2484)
Rushing: J. Taylor (1122)
Receiving: M. Pittman Jr. (752)
Touchdowns: J. Taylor (15)
Coaches:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bruce Arians (3rd season)
Indianapolis Colts: Frank Reich (4th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
