by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 21, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 26, 2023
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bucs +2.5, Colts -2.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bucs +2.5, Colts -2.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bucs +2.5, Colts -2.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6 (3rd place, NFC South)
Indianapolis Colts: 5-5 (3rd place, AFC South)
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Recent Form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lost their last game on the road against the San Francisco 49ers 27-14.
Indianapolis Colts: won their last game at a neutral site in Germany against the New England Patriots 10-6.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Indianapolis Colts Preview and Analysis
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 4-6 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the San Francisco 49ers 27-14. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 29/45 passes for 246 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Rachaad White led the team in rushing yards with 30 and 1 TD. Cade Otton led the receivers with 49 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Antoine Winfield Jr. led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while YaYa Diaby led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Colts are entering this game with a 5-5 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-4 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New England Patriots 10-6. Gardner Minshew was the starting QB and he completed 18/28 passes for 194 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jonathan Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 69 and 1 TD. Michael Pittman Jr. led the receivers with 84 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Zaire Franklin led the defense in that game with 12 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Dayo Odeyingbo led the defense in sacks with 3. Julian Blackmon and Rodney Thomas II each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
Buccaneers vs Colts Prediction
The current betting odds have the Colts listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Colts haven't looked great this season with their 5-5 record overall and their injured starting QB Anthony Richardson, but they are still finding ways to win with Gardner Minshew. They will have some momentum here from their win over the Patriots in Germany in their last game and they are also coming out of their bye week for this home game. The Buccaneers haven't looked great this season with their 4-6 record overall after a hotter start to the season and even though their offense is playing a lot better lately, now their defense has been letting them down in games. They have also struggled in their road games with their 2-3 road record and the offense was having a lot of problems with drops last week too. The Buccaneers are also playing their 2nd road game in a row while the Colts are at home and well rested coming out of their bye week. This is a better spot for the Colts to pick up another home win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Colts to cover the spread in this game.
Buccaneers Colts Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 26, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Colts 22 Buccaneers 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-11 ATS off 2 or more consecutive unders. 9-16 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 8-2 UNDER in all games. 15-7 UNDER in road games. 16-8 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Indianapolis Colts: 78-49 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 17-8 ATS after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. 12-5 UNDER as a favorite. 19-10 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 12-5 UNDER after playing a game where 19 total points or less were scored.
Key Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: J. Dean (CB) day-to-day - Foot. C. Davis III (CB) day-to-day - Hip. L. David (LB) day-to-day - Groin. R. Neal (S) day-to-day - Hand. M. Feiler (G) day-to-day - Knee. R. Jensen (C) I-R - Knee. R. Gage (WR) I-R - Knee.
Indianapolis Colts: J. Brents (CB) Ques Week 12 - Quadricep. D. Ogletree (TE) Ques Week 12 - Foot. K. Paye (DE) Ques Week 12 - Hamstring. T. Lewis (DE) Ques Week 12 - Calf. A. Richardson (QB) I-R - Shoulder. G. Stewart (DT) Elig Week 14 - Suspension. E. Hull (RB) I-R - Knee. D. Flowers (CB) I-R - Achilles. J. Woods (TE) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. D. Pinter (G) I-R - Ankle. T. Leo (DE) I-R - Undisclosed. G. Avery (DE) I-R - Knee. A. Dulin (WR) I-R - Knee. J. Witt (T) I-R - Hip. D. Scott (S) I-R - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“He beat us. Credit to him. He’s a great receiver, we know that. I feel like we play man coverage very well. That time they beat us, and you know, we got beat.” - Todd Bowles after his team’s loss against the 49ers in their last game.
“Our defense stepped up. We moved the ball offensively, but we didn’t finish our drives like we normally do, but it was good to get the win." - Shane Steichen after his team’s win against the Patriots in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Evans, Mike
WR Godwin, Chris
WR Palmer, Trey
TE Otton, Cade
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB White, Rachaad
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Downs, Josh
TE Granson, Kylen
QB Minshew, Gardner
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Statistical Leaders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: B. Mayfield (2389)
Rushing: R. White (459)
Receiving: M. Evans (780)
Touchdowns: M. Evans (7)
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: G. Minshew (1721)
Rushing: Z. Moss (617)
Receiving: M. Pittman Jr. (677)
Touchdowns: Z. Moss (6)
Coaches:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (2nd season)
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
