by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 11, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 16, 2025
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Buccaneers +5.5, Bills -5.5; Over/Under: 48.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Buccaneers +5.5, Bills -5.5; Over/Under: 48.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Buccaneers +5.5, Bills -5.5; Over/Under: 48 points
Season Record
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-3 (1st place, NFC South)
Buffalo Bills: 6-3 (2nd place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lost their last game at home against the New England Patriots 28-23.
Buffalo Bills: lost their last game on the road against the Miami Dolphins 30-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Analysis
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 6-3 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-2 in their home games, 4-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the New England Patriots 28-23. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 28/43 passes for 273 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Sean Tucker led the team in rushing yards with 53. Emeka Egbuka led the receivers with 115 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Lavonte David led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Elijah Roberts led the defense in sacks with 1. Tykee Smith came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Bills are entering this game with a 6-3 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Miami Dolphins 30-13. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 28/40 passes for 306 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 53. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 58 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Cole Bishop led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Cole Bishop and Maxwell Hairston each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Buccaneers vs Bills Prediction
The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 5.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers have looked good in their games this season with their 6-3 record overall which has them right at the top of the NFC South. They are off a bad 28-23 loss at home to the Patriots in their last one, but they continue to find ways to win games with all of the injuries they have and they will be looking to bounce back big in this one. Meanwhile, the Bills have looked good in their games this season with their 6-3 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC East. They came out of their bye week really strong and beat up on the Panthers, but now they are off a 30-13 loss to the Dolphins in their last one and they were never really in that game. That was a bad divisional loss to take with the Patriots now taking over the division and the Bills just haven't looked quite right in their games this season, even when they win. They are always going to have a good offense with Josh Allen, but they don't have a ton of talent on the offense surrounding him and it is starting to show. They also have some big issues on defense this season and even with all of the injuries, Baker Mayfield will find a way to keep this a close game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game.
Buccaneers Bills Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 16, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bills 24 Buccaneers 21.
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NFL Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 13-4 ATS as a road underdog. 9-0 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 4-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. 9-2 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more. 8-4 OVER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more.
Buffalo Bills: 0-3 ATS against NFC South division opponents. 3-10 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 7-2 OVER as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 10-5 OVER after playing a division game.
Key Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: H. Reddick (LB) Injured - Ankle. C. Godwin Jr. (WR) Injured - Fibula. V. Vea (DL) Injured - Back. B. Bredeson (OG) Injured - Hamstring. A. Winfield Jr. (S) Injured - Foot. M. Watts (LB) Injured - Hand. B. Irving (RB) Injured - Foot.
Buffalo Bills: J. Bosa (DL) Injured - Wrist. J. Phillips (DL) Injured - Wrist. S. Thompson (LB) Injured - Hamstring. P. Mathis (DL) Injured - Shoulder. T. Johnson (CB) Injured - Groin. T. Bernard (LB) Injured - Ankle. C. Lewis (CB) Injured - Calf. A. Epenesa (DL) Injured - Concussion. J. Palmer (WR) Injured - Knee. K. Shakir (WR) Injured - Ankle. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Groin. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Hamstring. C. Benford (CB) Injured - Groin. T. Sanders (DL) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
"There were four and in obvious situations that we didn't make. Obviously, we didn't play it well enough. We definitely didn't coach it well enough – I definitely didn't coach it well enough. It starts with me, and those things can't happen if you're playing against a good team like that, or any team in this league. We gave them up and it was inexcusable on our part. Bad on the coaching, bad on the players." - Todd Bowles after his team’s loss against the Patriots in their last game.
“They wanted it obviously a little bit more than us. I’ve got to be better. We’ve got to be better in the protection game, in the pass game, in the run game, all of it. Anytime you turn it over three times ... that’s a recipe for disaster.” - Josh Allen after their loss against the Dolphins in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Egbuka, Emeka
WR Shepard, Sterling
WR Johnson, Tez
TE Otton, Cade
QB Mayfield, Baker
RB White, Rachaad
Buffalo Bills
WR Shavers, Tyrell
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Statistical Leaders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: Baker Mayfield (2,192)
Rushing: Rachaad White (325)
Receiving: Emeka Egbuka (677)
Touchdowns: Emeka Egbuka (6)
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen (2,139)
Rushing: James Cook (920)
Receiving: Khalil Shakir (457)
Touchdowns: James Cook (7)
Coaches:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (4th season)
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
