Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Preview and Odds - 12/10/2023

by Rod Pearson

Monday, Dec 04, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 10, 2023
Venue:  Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch:  CBS


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Bucs +2.5, Falcons -2.5; Over/Under:  39 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Bucs +2.5, Falcons -2.5; Over/Under:  39 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bucs +2.5, Falcons -2.5; Over/Under:  39 points

Season Record

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  5-7 (2nd place, NFC South)
Atlanta Falcons:  6-6 (1st place, NFC South)

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Recent Form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  won their last game at home against the Carolina Panthers 21-18.
Atlanta Falcons:  won their last game on the road against the New York Jets 13-8.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis


The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 5-7 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Carolina Panthers 21-18. Baker Mayfield was the starting QB and he completed 14/29 passes for 202 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Rachaad White led the team in rushing yards with 84 and 1 TD. Mike Evans led the receivers with 162 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Antoine Winfield Jr. led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Antoine Winfield Jr., J.J. Russell, and YaYa Diaby each led the defense in sacks with 1. Antoine Winfield Jr. came away with the only interception for them in that game.
 
 
 
The Falcons are entering this game with a 6-6 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 13-8. Desmond Ridder was the starting QB and he completed 12/27 passes for 121 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 53. Kyle Pitts led the receivers with 51 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jessie Bates III led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Bud Dupree led the defense in sacks with 2. Jessie Bates III came away with the only interception for them in that game.


Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction

The current betting odds have the Buccaneers listed as a 2.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Buccaneers haven't looked great this season with their 5-7 record overall but even with that losing record, they are still right in the hunt for the NFC South. The Falcons haven't been any better this season with their 6-6 record overall but they lead the division with that record right now. This is a huge game for both though since the Saints lost to the Lions last week. The Falcons have a chance to take a 2 game lead over the Bucs in the division with a win in this game, but the Bucs haven't looked as bad lately and they will be fighting for the win in this game since it will put them right at the same record as the division leading Falcons. The offense has looked a lot better for the Bucs in recent weeks while the Falcons offense has been stalling lately with Desmond Ridder, just scraping by in another game as they beat the Jets 13-8 last week. The Bucs have a much better offense though and the Falcons aren't going to hold them to 8 points like they did with the Jets. The Falcons have also won a few closer games this season by 1 or 2 points so there is a good chance that they win this game by less than 3 points too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game. 

Buccaneers Falcons Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 10, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Buccaneers 21 Falcons 20.
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NFL Betting Trends


Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog. 5-1 ATS after a win by 3 or less points. 8-4 UNDER in all games. 15-8 UNDER in road games. 12-6 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs. 

Atlanta Falcons: 4-8 ATS in all games. 3-9 ATS as a home favorite. 6-15 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 28-18 UNDER in all games. 14-7 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 12-6 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins.

Key Injuries


Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  J. Dean (CB) day-to-day - Foot. L. David (LB) day-to-day - Groin. D. White (LB) day-to-day - Foot. S. Dennis (LB) day-to-day - Illness. M. Greene (DL) Out indefinitely - Calf. R. Jarrett (WR) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. R. Jensen (C) I-R - Knee. R. Gage (WR) I-R - Knee.

Atlanta Falcons:  M. Hollins (WR) day-to-day - Ankle. M. Hughes (CB) day-to-day - Hand. A. Terrell (CB) day-to-day - Head. L. London (DL) Out indefinitely - Knee. G. Jarrett (DL) I-R - Knee. J. Ali (WR) Out indefinitely - Ankle. T. Andersen (LB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. M. Hennessy (OL) I-R - Knee. A. Ogundeji (LB) I-R - Ankle. F. Franks (TE) I-R - Lower Body. E. Greenidge (OL) I-R - Leg. I. Enechukwu (DL) I-R - Undisclosed. A. Williams (RB) I-R - Knee.

Notable Quotes


“I don't know how much more you can say. He's been like this for 10 years now — 60 catches 10 years in a row, 1,000 yards 10 years in a row.” - Todd Bowles after his team’s win against the Panthers in their last game. 


“You’re in a playoff chase, you’re trying to win a division. Sometimes it can get ugly in the elements. Whatever happens, you adjust and at the end of the day, you've just got to find a way to win.” - Arthur Smith after his team’s win against the Jets in their last game. 


Starting Lineups


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Evans, Mike 
WR Godwin, Chris 
WR Palmer, Trey
TE Otton, Cade 
QB Mayfield, Baker 
RB White, Rachaad

Atlanta Falcons
WR London, Drake 
WR Jefferson, Van 
TE Pitts, Kyle
TE Smith, Jonnu 
QB Ridder, Desmond   
RB Robinson, Bijan 
FB Smith, Keith

Statistical Leaders


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: B. Mayfield (2790)
Rushing: R. White (643)
Receiving: M. Evans (1012)
Touchdowns: M. Evans (10)

Atlanta Falcons
Passing: D. Ridder (2029)
Rushing: B. Robinson (756)
Receiving: D. London (573)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (6)

Coaches:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (2nd season)
Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith (3rd season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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