by James Q
Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Picks - 12/05/2021
Game Time: 1:05 PM ET, Sunday, December 5th, 2021
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks
Circa: Point Spread: Tampa -11 : O/U 48.5
Caesars: Spread: Tampa -11 : O/U 48.5
BetMGM: Spread: Tampa -10.5; : O/U 48.5
Season Record
Bucs: 8-3 (NFC South)
Falcons: 5-6 (NFC South)
A matchup of conference and division rivals. A contest between quarterbacks in the last of Matt Ryan and the near to last of Tom Brady. The latest odds have the Bucs winning by more than a touchdown and a field goal… the prognosticators are wrong. Nov and Oct are gone… We have shifted into the final ⅓ of the regular season on the NFL schedule… it’s time to make money off these muffed NFL predictions.
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Bucs vs Falcons Preview and Analysis
RECENT FORM
The Bucs are 8-3 on the season, but 5-6 ATS. They have logged 6 Overs and 5 Unders. They are better at home than on the road… on the road they are 3-3. They beat the Indianapolis Colts 38-31 at Raymond James Stadium. They may feel on cruise control and that the Falcons are a safe team to look past… They shouldn’t… This is a real NFL game and a big spread.
The Falcons are 5-6 on the season AND 5-6 ATS. They have notched 5 Overs and 6 Unders. They are a disastrous 0-4 at home… That’s exactly when the mofus should strike… the sickness of too many in a row that gamblers fall victim to.
Offensive Analysis
Tampa is 1st in the NFL in points per game with 31.5, 3rd in yards with 401.7. It breaks down to 1st in passing yards and 23rd in rushing yards. The rushing game isn’t a weakness so much as it is a release valve. QB Tom Brady lulls the defense into deep coverage before handing the ball off for an easy 1st down.
The Falcons offense is struggling. Matty Ice has been cold. They are 28th in points per game with 18.1, 27th in yards per game with 310.5. That breaks down to a lousy 19th in passing yards and 30th in rushing yards.
Defensive Analysis
The Bucs are 8th on defense. They allow 328.5 yards per game. They have a weak secondary who allow 247.5 yards per game passing for a 20th ranking…. But they stop the run at only 81 yards per game for 1st in the NFL. They are 17th in defending against points by allowing 23 per game. Lots of field goals get kicked against that run defense.
Atlanta’s defense is sad also. They are ranked 22nd while allowing 361.8 ypg, 27.5 ppg and only producing 11 takeaways on the season for a 25th ranking. They need the offense to come through no matter what.
Bucs vs Falcons Prediction
Our prediction for Sunday, December 5th is… Bucs 27 - Falcons 14
Yup… The Bucs should cover. They are a super bowl contending team and the Falcons lost to the Dallas Cowboys 43-3 and the New England Patriots 25-0. We can’t pretend that super rookie Kyle Pitts will be abe to throw himself the ball.
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NFL Betting Trends
The Bucs are 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The Bucs are 5-2 ATS in December games over the last 3 seasons.
Atlanta is 6-13 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons.
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS against conference opponents this season.
Starting Lineups
Bucs: QB Tom Brady, RB Leonard Fournette, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin, WR Antonio Brown, TE Rob Gronkowski, LT Donovan Smith, LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen, RG Alex Cappa, RT Tristan Wirfs
Falcons: QB Matt Ryan, Rb Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Russell Gage, WR Tajae Sharpe, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Kyle Pitts, FB Keith Smith, LT Jake Matthews, LG Jalen Mayfield, C Matt Hennessy, RG Chris Lindstrom, RT Kaleb McGary
Statistical Leaders
Bucs
Passing Yards: Tom Brady 3,403
Rushing Yards: Leonard Fournette 621
Receiving Yards: Chris Godwin 806
Tackles: Devin White 90
Interceptions: Mike Edwards 3
Falcons:
Passing Yards: Matt Ryan 2,617
Rushing Yards: C Patterson 411
Receiving Yards: Kyle Pitts 661
Tackles: Foyesade Oluokun 119
Interceptions: Jaylinn Hawkins 2
COACHES
Bucs: Bruce Arians.
Falcons: Arthur Smith
Weather Forecast
Partly cloudy. 67* Humidity 56%. Wind 8 mph.
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
