It’s hard to win weekly in the NFL. On any given day one team is capable of beating another regardless of their won/loss records.
This week, I took a look at NFL teams competing in their 11th game of the season. In particular, I focused on those squads that won 70 or 80 percent of their battles. Out of curiosity, I wanted to see if those quality teams continued their successful run or if they would suffer a letdown. Here’s the best of what I discovered:
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any game 11 NFL team that holds an 8-2 SU or 7-3 SU record coming off a straight up win provided they are battling a division opponent that checks in off a straight up loss.
41-Year ATS Record = 29-9-3 ATS for 76.3 percent
This Week’s Play = HOUSTON TEXANS
Here we have a real simple system that just cashes tickets. Tennessee holds an 8-2 SU mark and enters this AFC South battle off a home win over New Orleans and catches Houston off a week of rest and an ugly 17-9 loss at Miami. That means the Titans qualify for this negative situation. There is one additional parameter that can be added to this system that makes it even more profitable. As long as our “play against” side is not laying -14 or more, this situation crumbles to a woeful 6-28-3 ATS!
Hopefully, off a bye week, the Texans will show up and find a way to fall under this hefty number. Good luck with Houston on Sunday.