Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Angles/Systems

by Kyle Hunter

Wednesday, Mar 22, 2023
We’re into the weekend of the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 in the NCAA Tournament. The venues have changed, and if you are looking for numbers regarding the venues and totals I recently wrote an article here at the Big Al site which gives detailed information about that. I know many people like to consider systems/angles that have worked in the past for specific rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Let’s take a look at a few that have worked well in the past. Keep in mind that these shouldn’t be just blindly bet across the board as much as it should be one factor in your overall handicap of the game.

Sweet 16 Angles

*Games With a Spread of 7.5 or larger in the Round of the Sweet 16 have gone under the total to the tune of 23-8-2 in the last 33 contests. If they had a closing total of 135 or higher, under is 18-4 in these contests. 

*Sweet 16: Teams with an ATS win percentage on the year of 50% or lower against a team with an ATS win percentage of 51% or higher are 41-25 ATS in the last 66 contests. If you are fading teams with a cover rate of higher than 60% this angle jumps to 17-4 ATS.

Elite 8 Angles

*Underdogs receiving 50% of the spread bets in the game or lower have gone 27-13-2 ATS in the Elite 8 round dating back to 2011. The public favorites have done poorly, and the underdogs who are unloved have been covering the number in a big way.

*Totals of less than 145 points on the closing number have gone over the total at a clip of 31-18 in the Elite 8 dating back to 2006. Totals of 137.5 or lower have gone 20-11 to the over in the Elite 8.

Before you bet on these big games Thursday-Sunday consider these angles as part of your handicap and see if it can help get you an edge. Every little edge you can find is helpful especially when the lines are as sharp as they this time of the season. Best of luck in the weekend ahead! 

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