Super Bowl Betting Trends - 1981 to 2022

by Al McMordie

Monday, Feb 06, 2023
Super Bowl LVII is a fascinating match-up between coach Andy Reid's current team (Kansas City Chiefs) and his former team (Philadelphia Eagles). 

The Eagles have been installed as a 1.5-point favorite, with a total of 50.5 (all odds from BetMGM).

Let's take a look at some historical trends.

Dating back to 1981, there have been 42 Super Bowls.

The underdogs have gone 23-17-2 ATS, including 2-3 at less than 3 points.

And there have been 23 Overs against 19 Unders, including 3-2 Over in games with totals in the 49 to 52-point range.

There have been 27 meetings between teams that played earlier in the current season, or in the previous season.

The revenge-minded team (here, Philadelphia) has gone 15-12 SU and 16-10-1 ATS.  When the revenger did not cover the spread in the previous meeting, it has gone 8-11 SU and 9-9-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.  But if it covered the spread in the previous meeting, it's gone 7-1 SU/ATS in the Super Bowl (Philly did not cover the point spread in last season's loss to Kansas City).

With regard to rematches from the current or former season, the Super Bowls have gone Under six of 12 times when the previous meeting went Over the total.  When the previous match-up went Under the total, the Super Bowl has gone Over the total in eight of 15.

There have been 19 games that involved two teams that earned a Bye to start the Playoffs.  Eleven of those 19 games have gone Over the total.  The favorite covered the spread 50% of the time in those games (9-9-1 ATS), including 5-2 ATS when favored by 3 points or less.

The team which averaged more points on offense has gone 19-23 SU and 15-25-2 ATS, while the team which gave up less points on defense has gone 28-14 SU and 22-18-2 ATS.  With respect to Super Bowl 57, the Eagles have given up less points on defense than have the Chiefs, while the two teams have scored exactly the same number of points on the season.

The team with the better win percentage has gone 18-18 SU and 13-21-2 ATS, including 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS when it was off an ATS loss.

The team with the better ATS win percentage (here, Philadelphia) has gone 24-14 SU and 23-13-2 ATS, including 10-3 SU/ATS when the Super Bowl was competitively-priced with a point spread of 3 points or less.

I am wrapping up my 11th straight winning NFL season, and have released a Totals play in this game, as I look to stay red-hot (currently 21-1-2 my last 24 selections, as of this writing).  Don't miss my NFL Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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