Stanley Cup Playoffs: Handicapping the Conn Smythe Award

With the Conference Finals now set, the Conn Smythe Trophy race is starting to take shape. At this point in the playoffs, the award usually comes down to either a superstar carrying his team offensively or a goaltender stealing multiple series along the way.

Here are my four favorite Conn Smythe Award predictions heading into the Conference Finals.

1. Nathan MacKinnon (+170 at BetMGM)

MacKinnon has looked like the most dominant player for much of these playoffs.

Colorado remains the favorite to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup, and everything continues to run through MacKinnon. He’s producing at an elite level while also controlling the pace of games almost every shift he’s on the ice. If the Avalanche reach the Stanley Cup Final, he's the clear Conn Smythe frontrunner and we're probably no longer being offered a plus-money return.

The number is already short, but sometimes the safest play is still the right one. Voters of course view MacKinnon as one of the defining stars in the league, and another Cup run would only strengthen that narrative.

2. Frederik Andersen (+400 at BetMGM)

Andersen still stands out as arguably the best value play on the board.

Carolina’s defensive structure naturally creates a path for a goaltender to win this award, especially in tight playoff games where every save becomes magnified. Andersen has already been outstanding throughout the postseason - undefeated, in fact - and now sits two rounds away from potentially becoming the biggest story of Carolina’s playoff run. 

The Hurricanes also don’t have one overwhelming offensive superstar dominating headlines, even though Logan Stankoven has been the breakout star of these playoffs, which makes it easier for a goalie to take control of the Conn Smythe conversation.

3. Jack Eichel (+2500 at BetMGM)

While the Golden Knights face long odds trying to 'upset' the mighty Avalanche, Eichel is still one of my favorite true longshots remaining in the field.

Vegas has the depth to at the very least contend with the Avs and should this series go deep, who knows what can happen. Mitch Marner is currently the team's Conn Smythe favorite but I don't think there's a lot separating he and Eichel. There's an opportunity for Eichel to climb the odds board if he can deliver a few signature performances over the next two rounds. 

This is the kind of bet that looks great if the Knights stage the upset in the Western Conference Final. Eichel has the talent to take over offensively, and if Vegas reaches the Stanley Cup Final with him leading the way, these odds obviously won't last.

4. Nick Suzuki (+3000 at BetMGM)

Suzuki sets up as a low-risk, high-reward Conn Smythe play.

The Canadiens weren’t expected to get this far, but Montreal continues finding ways to survive - winning each of its first two series' on the road in Game 7. Captain Suzuki is the emotional and offensive leader of the team, delivering big moments while logging huge minutes in pressure situations.

What makes this intriguing is the narrative potential. Suzuki provides the heartbeat for the Habs and if Montreal reaches the Stanley Cup Final, he would further solidify his place in team lore. 

The Canadiens are still considerable underdogs, but at +3000, the upside is obvious if this run continues.

Final Thoughts

MacKinnon remains the most likely winner overall, but Andersen offers the best combination of realistic path and betting value. Eichel and Suzuki are the bigger swings, but both have the kind of upside that can reshape this market should an upset or two occur over the next couple of weeks.