by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Oct 28, 2022
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UCLA -16.5
FanDuel: UCLA -16.5
BetMGM: UCLA -16.5
Caesars: UCLA -16.5
Season record
Stanford: 3-4 (1-4 Pac-12)
No. 12 UCLA: 6-1 (3-1 Pac-12)
We’re quickly approaching the fun time of the year where conference title games are made and upsets are the norm in college football. After minimal change in the top-25 polls this week, what in the world can we expect this time around? One thing you can be sure of is Kyle Hunter and his 22-9-0 mark in college football over the last month. Sean Murphy has also seen a profitable month at 28-15-0 over the last 30 days. What does the world have in store this time around with what should be another exciting week of college football? Follow our best bets page and make sure to be in tune with what our champion handicappers have to say this week!
Stanford - UCLA preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Stanford: won 15-14 vs. Arizona State
UCLA: lost 45-30 at No. 10 Oregon
The UCLA Bruins might not be the best team in the Pac-12 anymore, but they’re at least considered a threat in the conference. But at least for now, the Bruins have been taken down a peg from where they were. UCLA is coming off a 45-30 loss to No. 10 Oregon in Eugene last week, the first loss of the year for the L.A.-based program. This is a program that went from being considered a fraud to getting home wins over Washington and Utah. Oregon, however, was just another beast.
The UCLA Bruins might not be the best team in the Pac-12 anymore, but they’re at least considered a threat in the conference. But at least for now, the Bruins have been taken down a peg from where they were. UCLA is coming off a 45-30 loss to No. 10 Oregon in Eugene last week, the first loss of the year for the L.A.-based program. This is a program that went from being considered a fraud to getting home wins over Washington and Utah. Oregon, however, was just another beast.
UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns, but didn’t come close to matching the production of Oregon QB Bo Nix (283 yards, 5 TDs). UCLA got some balance in the running game from Zach Charbonnet who went for 151 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, but the UCLA defense just had no answer for Oregon. Ducks receiver Troy Franklin torched the UCLA secondary for 132 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 catches, and Oregon’s offense erupted for 545 total yards.
"I came back with expectations being very high for myself as well as this team," Thompson-Robinson said. "When you don't meet those expectations, obviously it hurts. I think it will fuel us stronger than ever."
The Bruins had 186 rushing yards compared to Oregon’s 262, but UCLA didn’t get any help from anyone outside of Charbonnet. Oregon, meanwhile, had help from Noah Whittington and Nix in the ground game. It was the one rare time that the Bruins got punked in every offensive facet when they shouldn’t have.
The Stanford Cardinal have found ways, somehow, to win the past couple of weeks. The offense may not be there, but the Cardinal have held Notre Dame and Arizona State to 14 points in consecutive weeks to result in wins. They just have scored 16 and 15 points, respectively. The Cardinal are coming into this game at 3-4 after those two wins that may define this season and save their season for bowl eligibility.
The star of the 15-14 win over the Sun Devils was Joshua Karty making five field goals and propelling a come-from-behind win over Arizona State at home. Three of Karty’s field goals were from at least 40 yards, which in this time period is considered heroic. Stanford QB Tanner McKee threw for 320 yards and an interception, but no help from the running game as Stanford had just 398 yards of total offense.
"We're finding our groove," Stanford head coach David Shaw said. "This is how hard we play and how hard we push to finish in those games. The ball bounced our way a couple times, which is great -- the ball bounced against us a couple times too throughout the season."
Prediction
Stanford has looked outmatched against ranked opponents, to no one’s surprise, and this one against UCLA shouldn’t be any different. DTR has been one of the best quarterbacks in the conference all year long, but met his match at the wrong time in Nix. McKee hasn’t been able to match that production when called upon and he’ll need to if Stanford has any chance at pulling off this upset. Being 16.5-point underdogs doesn’t help the situation. UCLA should handle this game with ease and if it doesn’t, maybe they really are the frauds we all thought they were. UCLA by 21
Betting trends
Stanford is 6-12 ATS as an underdog the past three years.
Stanford is 6-7 ATS on the road in its past 13 attempts.
UCLA is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as a favorite.
UCLA is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 as a home favorite.
UCLA is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 conference games.
Statistical leaders
Stanford:
Passing: Tanner McKee -- 1,857 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Casey Filkins -- 478 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Michael Wilson -- 418 yards, 4 TD
UCLA:
Passing: Dorian Thompson-Robinson -- 1,772 yards, 17 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Zach Charbonnet -- 766 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Jake Bobo -- 486 yards, 6 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Stanford Cardinal - UCLA Bruins prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
