St Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 06/28/2025

by Rod Pearson

Friday, Jun 27, 2025
Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, June 28, 2025
Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Where to Watch:  FDSMW, CLEGUARDIANS.tv 


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Cardinals -101, Guardians -121; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Cardinals +100, Guardians -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Cardinals +100, Guardians -120; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Season Record

St Louis Cardinals:  44-38 (3rd place, NL Central)
Cleveland Guardians:  40-39 (2nd place, AL Central)

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Recent Form
St Louis Cardinals:  7-3 last 10
Cleveland Guardians:  5-5 last 10



St Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Guardians Preview and Analysis


The Cardinals are entering this series off a loss and split their 4-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 44-38 record overall and have a road record of 18-21. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Guardians on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .717 OPS. Sonny Gray is their starting pitcher on Friday while Miles Mikolas is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-5 with a 4.31 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 1 BB with 6 SO on 4 hits through 5 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.

The Guardians are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 40-39 record overall and have a home record of 20-17. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Cardinals on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 25th in the MLB with a .671 OPS. Luis Ortiz is their starting pitcher on Friday while Slade Cecconi is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts on 6 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Athletics.


Cardinals vs Guardians Prediction

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cardinals have looked good in their games this season with their 44-38 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They haven't been a great road team though with their 18-21 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians have looked good in their games this season with their 40-39 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL Central. They have looked better in their own ballpark too with their 20-17 home record this season. The Guardians just lost a tough series at home against the Blue Jays while the Cardinals have been really hot lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 games, but the Cardinals have been a really different team on the road this year and the Guardians can take advantage of this pitching matchup. The Guardians are going with Cecconi in this one and he has looked good this year. He is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs, and now the team is gaining momentum with him as they have won 2 games in a row with him starting. Mikolas is on the mound for the Cardinals in this one and he has been a really up and down starter this year. He is 4-5 with a 4.31 ERA and has had some bad starts this season. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and the team has now lost 3 games in a row with him starting too. This is a game where the Guardians can definitely catch the Cardinals for a win at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game. 

Cardinals Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, June 28, 2025 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Guardians 5 Cardinals 2.
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MLB Betting Trends


St Louis Cardinals: 197-208 (-23.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 90-107 (-12.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 142-148 (-12.4 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 50-26 UNDER on the road in day games.

Cleveland Guardians: 115-88 (+8.7 units) on the moneyline in home games. 113-102 (+10.4 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 149-135 (+7.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 26-16 UNDER against NL Central opponents.

Key Injuries


St Louis Cardinals:  J. Walker (RF) Ten Day IL - Appendicitis. I. Herrera (C) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. Z. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

Cleveland Guardians:  J. Ramirez (3B) Day To Day - Forearm. A. Walters (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Lively (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. W. Brennan (RF) Ten Day IL - Forearm. P. Sewald (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. S. Bieber (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. E. Sabrowski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Stephan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Means (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. S. Hentges (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.


Notable Quotes


“You look at our lineup and guys that are feeling pretty good about their swings, they're left-handed, and then we face two lefties on the back end of this four-game set, so that has something to do with it. You look at Herrera being out, a guy that we like against lefties as well, so [it's] a combination of things. But, I mean, their starter yesterday did a really nice job, and their starter today also did a nice job.” - Oliver Marmol after his team’s loss against the Cubs in their game on Thursday. 


“We knew they were gonna hit Hosey. We knew it was coming, which is part of the game. All I said was, ‘Hit him in the hip.’ [I] played this game a long time, been around this game a long time. [If] you're gonna hit somebody on purpose, you hit them in the hip, not the arm.” - Stephen Vogt after his team’s loss against the Blue Jays in their game on Thursday.


Starting Lineups


St Louis Cardinals
Brendan Donovan (L) LF
Masyn Winn (R) SS
Alec Burleson (L) RF
Willson Contreras (R) 1B
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Thomas Saggese (R) 2B
Nolan Gorman (L) DH
Pedro Pagés (R) C
Garrett Hampson (R) CF

Cleveland Guardians
Steven Kwan (L) LF
Kyle Manzardo (L) 1B
José Ramírez (S) 3B
Carlos Santana (S) DH
Lane Thomas (R) RF
Daniel Schneemann (L) 2B
Bo Naylor (L) C
Gabriel Arias (R) SS
Angel Martínez (S) CF

Statistical Leaders


St Louis Cardinals
Batting Average:  José Fermín (1.000)
Hits:  Brendan Donovan (87)
Home Runs:  Lars Nootbaar (11)
RBI:  Willson Contreras (50)
Stolen Bases:  Victor Scott (22)
Wins:  Sonny Gray (7)
Saves:  Ryan Helsley (15)
ERA:  Andre Granillo (1.35)

Cleveland Guardians
Batting Average:  José Ramírez (.317)
Hits:  José Ramírez (92)
Home Runs:  José Ramírez (13)
RBI:  José Ramírez (38)
Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (21)
Wins:  Gavin Williams (5)
Saves:  Emmanuel Clase (18)
ERA:  Nic Enright (2.08)

Managers:
St Louis Cardinals: Oliver Marmol (4th season)
Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (2nd season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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