St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2025

Game Time: 2:20 pm ET, Friday, July 4, 2025

Venue:  Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL 

Where to Watch:  Apple TV+

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Cardinals +129, Cubs -158; Over/Under:  10 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Cardinals +130, Cubs -160; Over/Under:  10 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Cardinals +130, Cubs -160; Over/Under:  10 runs

St Louis Cardinals:  47-41 (3rd place, NL Central)

Chicago Cubs:  51-35 (1st place, NL Central)

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St Louis Cardinals:  5-5 last 10

Chicago Cubs:  5-5 last 10

The Cardinals are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-41 record overall and have a road record of 21-24. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .716 OPS. Sonny Gray was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Miles Mikolas is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 ER, 2 HR, and 1 BB with 5 SO on 7 hits through 4 IP against the Cleveland Guardians.

The Cubs lost their 3-game series against the Houston Astros 2-1. They enter this game with a 51-35 record overall and have a home record of 27-15. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Cardinals on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Cleveland Guardians still to be played on Thursday. The Cubs won the 1st game of that series on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .773 OPS. Rookie pitcher Cade Horton is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Colin Rea is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 5-3 with a 4.37 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 walks with 2 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Houston Astros.

The current betting odds have the Cubs listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cubs have looked great in their games this season with their 51-35 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL Central with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 27-15 home record. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have looked good in their games this season with their 47-41 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL Central. They haven't been a great road team though with their 21-24 road record this year. Both of these teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but the Cardinals have been starting to slump lately and the Cubs can take advantage of that with one of the best offenses in the MLB. Mikolas is on the mound for the Cardinals in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA and has been giving up quite a few runs lately, especially in his road starts. He is coming off a bad start in his last one in which he gave up 6 earned runs and the team has lost 3 of the last 4 games with him starting too. Rea is on the mound for the Cubs in this one and he hasn't looked great this year, but he hasn't been bad either and has looked a lot better lately. He is 5-3 with a 4.37 ERA, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and the team has had success with him lately, winning 4 of the last 5 games he started in. The Cubs also have the much better offense and they will be able to take advantage of this pitching matchup at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cubs to win this game. 

Cardinals Cubs Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 4, 2025 (2:20 pm ET start time) is Cubs 8 Cardinals 4.

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St Louis Cardinals: 200-211 (-23.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 60-71 (-20.2 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 144-150 (-12.5 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 16-5 OVER with double revenge - 2 straight losses against the opponent.

Chicago Cubs: 217-192 (+13.4 units) on the moneyline in all games. 116-87 (+13.7 units) on the moneyline in home games. 163-138 (+21.2 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 24-17 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record. 

St Louis Cardinals:  W. Contreras (1B) Day To Day - Hand. N. Arenado (3B) Day To Day - Finger. J. Walker (RF) Ten Day IL - Appendicitis. I. Herrera (C) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. Z. Thompson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat.

Chicago Cubs:  M. Amaya (C) Ten Day IL - Oblique. E. Morgan (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Assad (RP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Steele (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I felt like he did a really nice job all the way throughout, especially on five days' rest. For him to be able to go [nine innings last time out] and then give us what he did today, I mean, that’s giving us a real shot. We just had an inability to score runs.” - Oliver Marmol after his team’s loss against the Pirates in their game on Wednesday.

“That’s what’s cool. There is no one makeup or approach to the game that means you’re going to be a good player. You can do it in a very different way. Essentially, it means you have to authentically be yourself.” - Craig Counsell on Pete Crowe-Armstrong after his team’s win against the Guardians in their game on Wednesday.

Brendan Donovan (L) 2B

Masyn Winn (R) SS

Alec Burleson (L) 1B

Nolan Gorman (L) DH

Lars Nootbaar (L) LF

Thomas Saggese (R) 3B

José Fermín (R) RF

Pedro Pagés (R) C

Victor Scott II (L) CF

Ian Happ (S) LF

Kyle Tucker (L) RF

Seiya Suzuki (R) DH

Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) CF

Dansby Swanson (R) SS

Michael Busch (L) 1B

Carson Kelly (R) C

Nico Hoerner (R) 2B

Matt Shaw (R) 3B

Batting Average:  José Fermín (.500)

Hits:  Brendan Donovan (91)

Home Runs:  Lars Nootbaar (11)

RBI:  Willson Contreras (51)

Stolen Bases:  Victor Scott (22)

Wins:  Sonny Gray (8)

Saves:  Ryan Helsley (16)

ERA:  Andre Granillo (1.35)

Batting Average:  Kyle Tucker (.290)

Hits:  Kyle Tucker (93)

Home Runs:  Seiya Suzuki (23)

RBI:  Seiya Suzuki (73)

Stolen Bases:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (26)

Wins:  Matthew Boyd (8)

Saves:  Daniel Palencia (10)

ERA:  Drew Pomeranz (0.00)

Managers:

St Louis Cardinals: Oliver Marmol (4th season)

Chicago Cubs: Craig Counsell (2nd season)