by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Sep 24, 2021
Game time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Where to watch: Bally Sports Midwest, Marquee Sports Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Cardinals -165, Cubs +145
BetMGM: Cardinals -161, Cubs +135
Caesars: Cardinals -160, Cubs +150
Season record
Cardinals: 85-69 (2nd place, NL Central)
Cubs: 67-87 (4th place, NL Central)
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Cardinals - Cubs preview and analysis
Recent form
Cardinals: won 14 straight
Cubs: lost 4 straight
Have we reached the point where it’s blasphemous to bet against the St. Louis Cardinals right now?
I mean, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll push this winning streak to 22 games to end the regular season, but would we really be shocked?
But the Cardinals are playing scorching baseball at the right time, and they’ll look to extend their winning streak to 15 games when they face the Chicago Cubs as their four-game series continues Saturday.
The Cardinals pushed the streak to two touchdowns with a doubleheader victory on Friday, winning 8-5 and then 12-4, both in seven innings. This came after St. Louis flew in from Milwaukee after sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers in a four-game set, capped off with an 8-5 win on Thursday.
Albeit the Cardinals have made things interesting in the National League Central, it appears that race is too little, too late with the Brewers winning 5-1 over the New York Mets on Friday to snap their five-game losing streak. Milwaukee’s magic number for clinching the NL Central is down to two.
But this amazing run has put the Cardinals on the brink of clinching a wild card spot, something that seemed near impossible to grab a month ago. For the longest time it was the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres dictating the second wild card positioning, but it looks inevitable that the Cardinals will be making the trip to Los Angeles or San Francisco for the one-game playoff.
But you don’t have to look far at just why the Cardinals have put themselves in this position. Entering Friday’s doubleheader, the Cardinals were hitting a combined .281 and 18 home runs during the winning streak, driving in 74 runs (now 94 after Friday). They’ve dominated at the plate, and three players now have 30 homers on this team -- third baseman Nolan Arenado, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, and outfielder Tyler O’Neill.
“That’s a heck of an accomplishment,” said manager Mike Shildt. “Those three guys, there's a reason why we're doing what we're doing -- a lot of reasons, actually -- but those three are big ones.”
They’ll look to continue things against the Cubs in this third matchup of the weekend. Chicago isn’t going to finish in last place in the division, which should be good news after going full firesale mode at the trade deadline.
But Chicago is 20 games below .500 coming into Saturday and it’s not looking to be any better going against the hottest team in baseball right now. Adrian Sampson will take the mound for the Cubs as they try to snap their four-game losing streak and put some sort of dent in the -138 run differential they have right now.
"The fans have come to expect a contending team for the last seven years," Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said. "In a good way, we've raised those expectations. And I understand that that's what fans want to see. Obviously, that's my goal this offseason."
Prediction
Until otherwise, don’t bet against the Cardinals. The bats are connecting, the pitching is on point, and it just seems impossible for St. Louis to fall apart any time soon. Give me the Cardinals in another dominant display at the plate. Cardinals win 10-4
Betting trends
The Cardinals are 16-6 (+14.2 net games on the money line) in September.
St. Louis is 15-7 as a road favorite this season.
The Cubs are 6-15 as a road underdog of +125 or more.
Players to watch
Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill hit his fifth home run during this win streak, but the 26-year-old’s breakout season has been defined in this stretch. He’s batting .304 with 14 RBI with a slugging percentage of .609.
Cubs: Patrick Wisdom is batting .242 in his last nine games with two home runs and nine RBI.
Projected lineup
Cardinals:
Tommy Edman (S) 2B
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Tyler O’Neill (R) LF
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Dylan Carlson (S) RF
Edmundo Sosa (R) SS
Harrison Bader (R) CF
Andrew Knizner (R) C
Jon Lester (L) P
Cubs:
Willson Contreras (R) C
Frank Schwindel (R) 1B
Ian Happ (S) RF
Patrick Wisdom (R) LF
Matt Duffy (R) 3B
Nico Hoerner (R) SS
David Bote (R) 2B
Trayce Thompson (R) CF
Andrew Sampson (R) P
Statistical leaders
Cardinals:
Batting average: Paul Goldschmidt (.296)
Hits: Paul Goldschmidt (172)
Home runs: Nolan Arenado (33)
RBI: Nolan Arenado (103)
Stolen bases: Tommy Edman (28)
Wins: Adam Wainwright (16)
Saves: Alex Reyes (29)
ERA: Adam Wainwright (3.05)
Cubs:
Batting average: Ian Happ (.225)
Hits: Ian Happ (98)
Home runs: Patrick Wisdom (28)
RBI: Patrick Wisdom (61)
Stolen bases: Rafael Ortega (9)
Wins: Kyle Hendricks (14)
Saves: Rowan Wick (4)
ERA: Kyle Hendricks (4.81)
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
