by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Friday, Nov 05, 2021
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, November 6, 2021
Venue: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: USA +4, Troy -4; Over/Under: 48 points
Bet365: Point Spread: USA +4, Troy -4; Over/Under: 47.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: USA +3.5, Troy -3.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
South Alabama Jaguars: 5-3 (3rd place, Sun Belt Group B)
Troy Trojans: 4-4 (4th place, Sun Belt Group A)
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South Alabama Jaguars vs Troy Trojans Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
South Alabama Jaguars: won at home on Oct. 30 against the Arkansas State Red Wolves 31-13.
Troy Trojans: lost on the road on Oct. 28 against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 35-28.
South Alabama Jaguars Analysis
South Alabama is coming into this game with a 5-3 record overall and they are 1-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 6th conference matchup this year and they are currently 2-3 in their conference games this season. They have won 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of a win against Arkansas State in their last game. Jake Bentley played well in that game as he completed 29/39 passes for 251 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Terrion Avery had a nice day on the ground in that one as he led the team in rushing yards with 113 yards on 22 carries. Jalen Tolbert led the receivers with 94 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 receptions while Brandon Crum and Avery caught the other touchdown passes with 1 each. Quetin Wilfawn led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted ones. Charles Coleman III led the defense in sacks in that game with 1.5 while Darrell Luter Jr. had 2 interceptions for them and Devin Rockette had 1 interception as well in that one. They have scored 233 points in their 8 games this season averaging 29.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 168 points against them allowing 21 PPG. Their offense is averaging 396.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 321 YPG.
Troy Trojans Analysis
Troy is coming into this game with a 4-4 record overall and they are 2-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 5th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 2-2 in their conference games this season. They have won 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of a loss against CCU which snapped the 2 game winning streak they were on prior to that. Gunnar Watson played well in their last game as he completed 17/30 passes for 225 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kimani Vidal had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 142 yards and 1 touchdown on 22 carries. Tez Johnson led the receivers with 88 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions while Jabre Barber and Deyunkrea Lewis both caught the other touchdown passes in that one with 1 each. Carlton Martial led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 9 assisted ones. KJ Robertson and Javon Solomon both combined for the only sack in that one while Reddy Steward came away with the only interception for them. They have scored 205 points in their 8 games this season averaging 25.6 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 172 points against them allowing 21.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 356.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 314 YPG.
South Alabama vs Troy Prediction
Troy is coming into this game as a 4 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Troy has been playing well recently with 1 hiccup in their last game but they were up against the best team in the conference in CCU and they played so well in that game that they were in it the whole time with a chance to win that game, only losing by 7 points in the end. South Alabama has had an up and down season, especially in their conference games they have some questionable losses to teams a lot worse than them. They cannot be trusted to keep this game close on the road here. The best bet to place in this game is on Troy to cover the spread here.
South Alabama Troy Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 6, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Troy 31 South Alabama 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
South Alabama Jaguars: 9-16 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 53-65 ATS in all games. 35-40 ATS as an underdog. 22-24 ATS as a road underdog. 26-31 ATS in road games. 31-43 ATS against conference opponents.
Troy Trojans: 119-115 ATS in all games. 67-64 ATS against conference opponents. 105-94 O/U in all games. 36-31 O/U as a home favorite. 44-40 O/U in home games. 50-31 O/U after playing 2 straight conference games.
Key Injuries
South Alabama Jaguars: S. Jennings (LB) Ques Sat - Ankle injury. J. McCullouch (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. C. Thompson (S) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Troy Trojans: R. Todd (WR) Out indefinitely - Suspension.
Notable Quotes
“Guys are starting to make those little strides in the right direction. I think we will be healthier than we were a week ago, particularly with the offensive line and a couple of those guys on defense we’re getting back.” - Kane Wommack on his team before their game against Troy.
“You get the same Carlton each and every week. The guy is just always around the football. He’s one of the best players I’ve ever had the opportunity to coach. He’ll be one of the best ones that’s ever played here when it’s all said and done. … He’s the leader on that side of the ball. I’m just glad he’s on our team.” - Chip Lindsey on Carlton Martial.
Starting Lineups
South Alabama Jaguars
WR Tolbert, Jalen
WR Jalen Wayne
WR Caullin Lacy
TE Crum, Brandon
TE Sefcik, Lincoln
QB Bentley, Jake
RB Avery, Terrion
Troy Trojans
WR Stoudemire, Deshon
WR Whittemore, Luke
WR Barber, Jabre
WR Johnson, Tez
TE Lewis, Deyunkrea
QB Watson, Gunnar
RB Vidal, Kimani
Statistical Leaders
South Alabama Jaguars
Passing: J. Bentley (2076)
Rushing: T. Avery (409)
Receiving: J. Tolbert (967)
Touchdowns: J. Tolbert (6)
Troy Trojans
Passing: T. Powell (1144)
Rushing: K. Vidal (585)
Receiving: T. Johnson (504)
Touchdowns: K. Vidal (5)
Coaches:
South Alabama Jaguars: Kane Wommack (1st season)
Troy Trojans: Chip Lindsey (3rd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
