by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Tuesday, Oct 05, 2021
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 9, 2021
Venue: Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: USA -3.5, Texas State +3.5; Over/Under: 53 points
Bet365: Point Spread: USA -3.5, Texas State +3.5; Over/Under: 53 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: USA -3.5, Texas State +3.5; Over/Under: 53 points
Season Record
South Alabama Jaguars: 3-1 (4th place, Sun Belt Group B)
Texas State Bobcats: 1-3 (3rd place, Sun Belt Group B)
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South Alabama Jaguars vs Texas State Bobcats Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
South Alabama Jaguars: lost at home on Oct. 2 against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 20-18.
Texas State Bobcats: lost on the road on Sep. 25 against the Eastern Michigan Eagles 59-21.
South Alabama Jaguars Analysis
South Alabama is coming into this game with a 3-1 record overall and they are 1-0 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 2nd conference matchup of the year and they have already fallen behind with a 0-1 record in their conference games this season. Their season started off great going on a 3 game winning streak picking up wins against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, the Bowling Green Falcons, and the Alcorn State Braves but that streak was snapped in their last game with a loss to ULL. Jake Bentley played alright in their last game as he completed 19/29 passes for 243 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions. Bryan Hill led the team in rushing with 81 yards and 2 touchdowns but they did not have much of a running game in that one without him. Jalen Tolbert led the receivers 143 yards on 6 receptions as he had a very nice day for the receiving corps. Darrell Luter Jr. and Jamal Brooks both led the defense with 4 solo tackles each. Wy'Kevious Thomas had the only sack for the defense in that game and no one was able to come away with an interception. They have scored 99 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed 67 points against them. Their offense is averaging 365.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 289 YPG.
Texas State Bobcats Analysis
Texas State is coming into this FBS college football game with a 1-3 record overall and they are 0-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their first conference matchup of the year on their college football schedule. Their 1 win came against the FIU Panthers while their 3 losses came against the Baylor Bears, the Incarnate Word Cardinals, and against EMU in their last game. They had a bye week last week so they have had an extra week to prepare for this game. Brady McBride played alright in their last game as he completed 16/25 passes for 187 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brock Sturges led the team in rushing with 68 yards on 14 carries while Calvin Hill had 57 rushing yards on 10 carries. Trevis Graham Jr. led the receivers with 69 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions while Javen Banks also had 4 receptions for 38 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Overall, it was a pretty quiet day for the receiving corps and the offense as a whole. Zion Childress led the defense with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted one in that game. Issiah Nixon and Samuel Obiang both had 1 sack each in that one but no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception. They have scored 98 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 147 points against them. Their offense is averaging 332.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 435.8 YPG.
South Alabama vs Texas State Prediction
South Alabama has been a much better team in their football games this season than Texas State has been. Texas State has played in some close games this year but they have faced some very weak competition and they even came up short to Incarnate Word, a team from the FCS. South Alabama had a great 3-0 start and will want to bounce back after losing in their last game, especially in a conference game. They will be looking to get that game back here against a bad Texas State team with a bad defense. The best bet to place in this game is South Alabama to cover the spread here as they will win this game by a large margin, they are just the better team overall.
South Alabama Texas State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 9, 2021 (7:00 pm ET start time) is South Alabama 31 Texas State 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
South Alabama Jaguars: 46-65 O/U in all games. 16-22 O/U as a favorite. 23-32 O/U in road games.
Texas State Bobcats: 50-58 O/U in all games. 35-48 O/U as an underdog. 11-24 O/U when the total is between 49.5 and 56.
Key Injuries
South Alabama Jaguars: P. Rosette (S) Out for season - Knee injury.
Texas State Bobcats: R. Groves (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. W. Jones (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot injury.
Players to Watch
South Alabama Jaguars: Jalen Tolbert is one player to watch here. He leads his team in receiving yards this season. He is coming off of a big game where he had over 100 yards receiving and will be looking to carry that over into this game. He is a key piece in this offense so look for him to get some balls thrown his way in this game.
Texas State Bobcats: Brady McBride is one player to watch here. His team is coming off of a bye week so they have had extra time to prepare for this game. He should be ready and he will have a challenge ahead of him here so look for him to make the big plays and lead this offense down the field for some scores.
Notable Quotes
“We’re optimistic we can get him back practicing at some point. “But at what point that’s going to be, we don’t expect him for the season.” - Kane Wommack on getting Maurice Strong back from injury.
“It was a really good time to self-reflect and do some self-scout stuff, get some development work in with some of the younger guys and, the main thing, get healthy. We got 15 kids back in practice on Thursday and then moving into today we had 15 guys back this past week. A lot of good energy right now and we’re ready to move on to our conference play … We’ve got two months ahead of us. Eight games to play and we know it’s a tough conference.” - Jake Spavital on his team getting their bye week this last week.
Starting Lineups
South Alabama Jaguars
WR Tolbert, Jalen
WR Jalen Wayne
WR Caullin Lacy
TE Crum, Brandon
TE Sefcik, Lincoln
QB Bentley, Jake
RB Walker, Kareem
Texas State Bobcats
WR Marcell Barbee
WR Banks, Javen
WR Speights, Chandler
WR Drue Jackson
TE Caillouet, Seth
QB McBride, Brady
RB Hill, Calvin
Statistical Leaders
South Alabama Jaguars
Passing: J. Bentley (927)
Rushing: K. Walker (208)
Receiving: J. Tolbert (460)
Touchdowns: K. Walker (4)
Sacks: S. Jennings (2)
Tackles: T. Young (11)
Texas State Bobcats
Passing: B. McBride (786)
Rushing: C. Hill (238)
Receiving: M. Barbee (209)
Touchdowns: J. Jeter (3)
Sacks: I. Nixon (3)
Tackles: Z. Childress (16)
Coaches:
South Alabama Jaguars: Kane Wommack (1st season)
Texas State Bobcats: Jake Spavital (3rd season)
Weather Forecast
92 degrees F sunny, 57% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 10 mph wind speeds S.
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
