Game Time: 7:30 PM  ET, Saturday, November, 20th, 2021

Venue:  Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee

Where to Watch: ESPNU

 

DraftKings:  Spread: Tenn -28; Over/Under: 62 points

Circa:  Spread: Tenn -28; Over/Under:  61 points

Caesars:  Spread: Tenn -28;  Over/Under:  62 points 

 

  

South Alabama: 2-5 conf, 5-5 overall (Sun Belt Conference)

Tennessee: 3-5 conf, 5-5 overall (SEC)

This is a matchup of similar records, but different worlds.  Tennessee tickets are going for cheap this season because they are big time SEC losers… South Alabama Tickets always go for cheap because they play in the Sun Belt Conference… sure they are big losers there, but they are also a cheap watch in winning seasons too.  A 28-point spread would translate into a moneyline that pays in the thousands!  Can South Alabama possibly cover this big spread?... That’s the question everyone with a spare yard wants to know.

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Recent Form

USA is 5-5 on the season, but 4-6 ATS.  They have logged 5 Overs and 5 Unders.  They are a blistering 1-4 in road games.  Appalachian State beat USA down last game 31-7. Texas State beat the Jaguars close 33-31 in overtime.  The jaguars are a team that hasn’t played anyone big and isn’t getting many wins.

Tenn is 5-5 on the season, but 4-6 ATS… practically the same.  They have logged 7 Overs and 3 Unders.  They are a mediocre 3-3 at home.  The Volunteers got smacked by the Georgia Bulldogs 41-17 last week.  They also took a 52-24 loss right on the chin to the Alabama Crimson Tide. They lost to the Florida Gators… They lost to Pittsburgh… They lost to Ole Miss.  Those are all big programs… Two of them are the top two teams in the country.  College Football odds are rarely this simple.  Tennessee will win and win easily, but is it worth a wager with a 28 pt spread?

 

South Alabama is ranked 86th in the FBS on offense.  They gain 377.5 ypg and have scored 33 touchdowns on the season. Their numbers dipped in September as they entered conference play.  Cedric Tillman’s team-high 46 receptions and 6 TDs have carried them through the yardage requirement to even be in the top 100.  They haven’t done these numbers against the big boys..  They never played Ohio State, Michigan, or even Texas A&M… but they still move the ball.

Tennessee is ranked 23rd in the FBS on offense.  They have gained 450.3 ypg and scored 45 TDs so far.  QB Hendon Hooker has 22 touchdown passes and only 3 interceptions this season.  They may have lost some games, but they don’t suffer on offense.

Defensive Analysis

Defense is a real strength of South Alabama.  They are ranked 16th in the FBS. They have given up a stingy 320.4 ypg and 30 TDs.  Of course Clemson and Oregon were not on the schedule.  They have held small schools from small conferences to low numbers, that won’t bother Tennessee.

Tennessee is ranked 97th in the FBS on defense.  That’s sad.  They have given up 424.5 ypg and have allowed 38 TDs… They also played Alabama and Georgia that posted a big chunk of those numbers.  This is an SEC team… they aren’t measured by how they do against Sun Belt conference teams alone or they would be the #1 team in college football.  They have this, you know it.

Our prediction for Saturday, November 20th is….   Tennessee 42 - South Alabama 12

 

Tennessee will cover the 28 point spread.  The difference in conference is that great.  The backups at Tennessee could start at South Alabama… and thanks to the transfer portal have that chance if they can’t crack the Tenn rotation.

 

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South Alabama is 5-10 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.
South Alabama is 9-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in home games this season.
Tennessee is 2-5 in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

South Alabama: QB Desmond Trotter, RB Terrion Avery, WR Jalen Tolbert, Wr Jalen Wayne, WR Caulin Lacy, LT Ja’Chai Baker, Lg Kent Foster, OC Trey Simpson, RG Anterrious Gray, RT Antawn Lewis, Te Brandon Crum, TE Lincoln Sefcik

Tennessee: QB Hendon Hooker, RB Tiyon Evans, WR JaVonta Payton, WR Cedric Tillman, WR Velus Jones, JR, LT Darnell Wright, LG Jerome Carvin, OC Cooper Mays, RG Javontez Spraggins, RT Cade Mays, TE Jacob Warren

South Alabama

Passing Yards: Jake Bentley 2,122

Rushing Yards: Terrion Avery 498

Receiving Yards: Jalen Tolbert 1,140

Tackles: A.J. DeShazor JR 55

Interceptions: Darrell Luter JR 4

Tennessee

Passing Yards: Hendon Hooker 2,138

Rushing Yards: Tiyon Evans 525

Receiving Yards: Cedric Tillman 725

Tackles: Jeremy Banks 89

Interceptions: Jaylen McCollough 3

COACHES

South Alabama: Kane Wommack.  Coach Wommack is a brand new head coach in the college coaching game… he so far is 5-5 on his career.  He has been a LB coach and Defensive Coordinator and working his way up since 2010.  I’m sure he is a nice guy… hell he was a college Tight End and Fullback… those guys are the best!  Right now the defensive coordinator job at most SEC teams would be a step up… now he has to coach against an SEC head coach.

 

Tennessee: Josh Heupel.  Coach Heupel is a new coach at Tennessee.  He was previously at UCF and before that the Offensive Coordinator of Missouri.  He was a peripheral /practice squad player in the NFL for the Dolphins and the Packers 20 years ago.  Tennessee is saving millions of dollars with an inexperienced coach… How long will the boosters put up with it though?