Soccer: A Look At Europe's Big 4 Leagues

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Feb 22, 2022
I’m back with a look at Europe’s “Big 4” soccer leagues and what you should be looking for when wagering on the English Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A. 

Premier League

As it has been known for some time now, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are destined to finish as the top three. Liverpool has closed the gap on Man City to six points and they have a match in hand. Both GD (goal differential) and xPts (expected points) say it will be a tight race for the title with Chelsea (by their own manager’s admission) likely ending up off the pace. None of this information is at all Earth-shattering.

But the big question is still who will finish fourth and grab the last Champions League spot for next season? It’s a five-horse race with Manchester United, West Ham, Arsenal, Wolverhampton and Tottenham all vying. I believe there’s a gap between those first three sides and the last two with Wolverhampton in particular lagging behind in xPts. Tottenham has a GD of 0 and that’s after the stunner against Man City on Saturday. Right now, I’d bet on Arsenal to finish fourth, just in front of Man U. The Gunners have THREE matches in hand over United, which is key. Remember that West Ham made the jump from 16th to 6th place last season, thus I still think there’s some regression there.

Brighton, Southampton, Leicester City, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace are all solid mid-table sides that shouldn’t have to worry about relegation. I do think CP is much better than its current position while Leicester and Villa deserve to be lower. 

The relegation battle has gotten a lot more interesting over the last few weeks. The X-factor is Burnley having played only 22 matches (most everyone else has played 24) and whether or not they can accrue enough points to get out of the drop zone. I do think Norwich City, whose -38 GD is by far the worst in the EPL, is destined to be sent back to the second tier. Newcastle seems to have spent enough where you think they may be safe. If so, expect Watford (like Norwich) to be one and done in the top flight. Leeds United is the team that could fall hard as well, especially if Burnley pulls itself out of the hole.

La Liga 

This is the league where I have the most questions about the top. Real Madrid has certainly looked like the best team thus far and would be my pick to finish first. Certainly, they are the lone guarantee for the top four at this point. Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Villarreal (who are 4th-6th respectively) are coming for the other spots though. I consider all three to be better than Sevilla and Real Betis, though Sevilla may have built up a big enough cushion where they are likely to remain top four. 

Beyond the top six, Real Sociedad (-1 GD) seems to have really fallen off while Athletic Bilbao could still contend for the Europa League. After that, the middle of the table is occupied by the likes of Celta Vigo, Osusana, Rayo Vallecano, Valencia and Espanyol. None of these teams should have to worry about relegation.

The relegation battle here is very wide open. Last year, none of the bottom three in xPts (Granada, Cadiz, Elche) ended up relegated due to some good luck. Those three same sides are again the bottom three in xPts in 2021/22! But again, of the three, only Cadiz (18th) is currently in the drop zone. Elche is 14th (nine points clear) while Granada is on shakier ground in 17th (only four points clear). I don’t think Cadiz (who is currently last in xPts) can escape relegation again. What’s really interesting is Levante, who is last in the league with 15 points and needs at least nine more to guarantee safety, is ahead of EIGHT teams in xPts! Can they prove the metrics right and escape relegation? If so, Alaves and Granada are most likely to join Cadiz in the Segunda Division next season.

Bundesliga

Over in Germany is where I am most confident in who will finish in the top four: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig. Out of that quartet, it is third place Leverkusen that I am least certain about. They are only sixth in xPts.

It should be a very interesting battle for the rest of the European spots between Hoffenheim, Freiburg, FC Union Berlin, FC Koln and Mainz. All of those sides are currently separated by just three points, plus Hoffenheim and Freiburg are actually tied with Leipzig for fourth. But GD shows there’s a gap between the top four and everyone else. Hoffenheim and Freiburg (+10 each) have the best GD of the rest, but the former is actually last in xPts among this group. The reverse is true for FC Union Berlin, who has the worst GD of the bunch, but running fourth in the league in xPts. I can’t call who will finish fifth or sixth right now (maybe Freiburg and Mainz?)

I’m just going to skip over the middle of the table and move to the bottom where the relegation battle has gotten interesting. Greuther Furth remains a solid choice to be one of the two sides automatically relegated at season’s end. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Arminia Bielefeld actually has the fewest xPts in the league, but has moved to 14th place and their -7 GD is better than all the teams they are competing against. I think Hertha Berlin (-26 GD) is in serious trouble and will finish second from the bottom. Augsburg and Stuttgart will be vying to avoid the relegation playoff (whomever finishes third worst). 

Serie A

This is the one league where I am confident we are going to see a change at the very top. Look for either Inter (the current Scudetto holders) or Napoli to unseat AC Milan for first. Juventus should be the ones to round out the top four, leaving Atalanta on the outside looking in for the Champions League next season. Roma should finish sixth and get the Europa League qualifying spot.

The reason I like Roma more than Lazio is that no team has exceeded its xG (expected goal) total in all of Europe more than Lazio has. There’s got to be some regression forthcoming.

Looking at the middle of the table, Sampdoria and Udinese should move up a few spots, passing Empoli and Bologna (and Spezia in the case of Udinese).  

The relegation battle in Italy seems a lot more cut and dry. Salernitana and Genoa both look doomed to be in Serie B next season. I think Cagliari fights its way out of the drop zone, which would leave Venezia as the most likely third candidate for relegation. 


All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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