by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 18, 2024
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 23, 2024
Venue: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Where to Watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: SMU -9.5, UVA +9.5; Over/Under: 58 points
Bet365: Point Spread: SMU -9.5, UVA +9.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: SMU -9.5, UVA +9.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Season Record
SMU Mustangs: 9-1 (6-0) (1st place, ACC)
Virginia Cavaliers: 5-5 (3-3) (11th place, ACC)
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Recent Form
SMU Mustangs: won their last game at home against the Boston College Eagles 38-28.
Virginia Cavaliers: lost their last game on the road against the Notre Dame Fighting irish 35-14.
SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers Preview and Analysis
SMU is entering this game with a 9-1 record overall and they have a 6-0 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 4-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Boston College 38-28. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 24/35 passes for 298 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Brashard Smith led the team in rushing yards with 120 and 1 TD. Jordan Hudson led the receivers with 99 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Kobe Wilson led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while Kobe Wilson, Mike Lockhart, and Jahfari Harvey each led the defense in sacks with 1. Isaiah Nwokobia came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Virginia is entering this game with a 5-5 record overall and they have a 3-3 record in their conference games too. They are 2-3 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Notre Dame 35-14. Anthony Colandrea was the starting QB and he completed 8/21 passes for 69 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions before getting replaced by Tony Muskett who completed 9/14 passes for 103 yards. Xavier Brown led the team in rushing yards with 52. Malachi Fields led the receivers with 81 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jonas Sanker led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Jonas Sanker led the defense in sacks with 1. Trey McDonald came away with the only interception for them in that one.
SMU vs Virginia Prediction
The current betting odds have SMU listed as a 9.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU has looked great in their games this season with their 9-1 record overall and their 6-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the ACC. They have been flying under the radar all year in their first season as an ACC team, but now with Miami losing a game, SMU is the only team that is still undefeated in ACC play. They have put themselves in a great position to make the ACC Championship now with the finish line right ahead so they are going to bring their best effort in these final games. Meanwhile, Virginia hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 5-5 record overall and their 3-3 conference record which has them lower in the ACC. They are coming off a big loss to Notre Dame in their last one and the wheels have been falling off this team lately. They have looked terrible over the last month with 4 losses in their last 5, and their offense hasn't looked good in these games either. SMU doesn't have a great defense, but their offense has been putting up a ton of points all season and Virginia won't be able to keep up with the points they can score. Virginia has also been giving up a lot more points on defense lately too. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game.
SMU Virginia Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 23, 2024 (12:00 pm ET start time) is SMU 42 Virginia 14.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
SMU Mustangs: 4-10 1H ATS off a home win. 2-7 1H ATS off a home win against a conference rival. 6-2 UNDER in games played on a grass field. 9-5 UNDER off a home win. 11-5 1H UNDER after playing a game at home.
Virginia Cavaliers: 14-6 ATS as an underdog. 8-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 14-6 ATS against conference opponents. 12-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 11-6 UNDER in home lined games. 7-2 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 6-3 UNDER versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less.
Key Injuries
SMU Mustangs: E. Roberts (DE) Questionable - Hand. J. Bailey (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Davis (CB) Questionable - Head. J. Knighton (RB) Out - Knee. R. Maryland (TE) Out - Knee. R. Brinson (WR) Questionable - Knee. Z. Minors (RB) Questionable - Lower Body. C. Wheaton (RB) Out - Knee.
Virginia Cavaliers: T. Harris (WR) Questionable - Knee. J. Hammond (DT) Out - Shoulder. J. Griese (RB) Questionable - Foot. K. Gay (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Ennis (TE) Out - Knee. E. Sipe (OL) Questionable - Foot. D. Metcalf (OL) Out - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“I think you saw tonight how (the players) are handling it. There’s a lot of pressure, more probably put on by themselves, and they just want to win, they want it. When the game was the tightest tonight, we played our best. And so I think that’s the best evidence I can tell you for how they’re handling it.” - Rhett Lashlee after his team’s win against BC in their last game.
“They’re not going to quit. They’re going to fight. That’s part of our DNA. You have to have the resilience to just keep battling regardless of circumstances. Proud of the effort to play all the way to the end. We have a lot of coaching to do, lot of teaching to do, lot of improving to do.” - Tony Elliott after his team’s loss against ND in their last game.
Starting Lineups
SMU Mustangs
WR Dixon, Moochie
WR Hudson, Jordan
WR Bailey, Jake
TE Maryland, RJ
QB Jennings, Kevin
RB Smith, Brashard
Virginia Cavaliers
WR Fields, Malachi
WR Harris, Trell
WR Tyree, Chris
TE Neville, Tyler
QB Colandrea, Anthony
RB Pace, Kobe
Statistical Leaders
SMU Mustangs
Passing: K. Jennings (2198)
Rushing: B. Smith (1026)
Receiving: K. Smith (415)
Touchdowns: B. Smith (14)
Virginia Cavaliers
Passing: A. Colandrea (2017)
Rushing: X. Brown (488)
Receiving: M. Fields (746)
Touchdowns: G. Brosterhous (4)
Coaches:
SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (3rd season)
Virginia Cavaliers: Tony Elliott (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
