by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Oct 02, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL
Where to watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: UCF -3.5
FanDuel: UCF -3.5
BetMGM: UCF -3
Caesars: UCF -3.5
Season record
SMU: 2-2
UCF: 3-1
Another week, another crazy set of circumstances in college football! Georgia almost loss, Bryce Young left but Alabama still won, etc. All the craziness, all the drama through a month into the season. What in the world are we getting next? How about starting with a 6-1-0 run from Kyle Hunter this past weekend? Our top handicapper in the college football realm had himself a very good week. What will next week have in store with a lot of shakings in the top 25 to be expected? Make sure to follow all of our champion handicappers and their picks in our Best Bets section, where you can expect more of Kyle's and others' picks to get you on the right side of winning this week at bigal.com.
SMU - UCF preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
SMU: lost 42-34 vs. TCU
UCF: won 27-10 vs. Georgia Tech
Hurricane Ian has altered the sports landscape just a bit in the state of Florida. Such events have forced the game between the SMU Mustangs and Central Florida Knights to move their game to Wednesday in Orlando. Other than safety first and hoping everyone is alright, on the football field, it’s going to be one of those games where it’s a battle of two teams that should be much better than their records indicate and whomever sucks less is going to get their first victory in conference play this year. The AAC opener between the two teams will be a must-win for either group.
Hurricane Ian has altered the sports landscape just a bit in the state of Florida. Such events have forced the game between the SMU Mustangs and Central Florida Knights to move their game to Wednesday in Orlando. Other than safety first and hoping everyone is alright, on the football field, it’s going to be one of those games where it’s a battle of two teams that should be much better than their records indicate and whomever sucks less is going to get their first victory in conference play this year. The AAC opener between the two teams will be a must-win for either group.
SMU started the year with two wins against North Texas and Lamar, but followed that with losses to Maryland and 42-34 defeat to undefeated TCU. Both of those losses came by one score with the defense getting torched toward the end, as SMU’s defense tends to do. The Mustangs fell behind as much as 21 points at home in the first half. The Mustangs rallied but fell short by 8 points. Tanner Mordecai threw for 372 yards and two touchdowns, but also tossed two interceptions, but Tre Siggers ran for 60 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries. When’s the last time you saw a traditional running back have a game like that? Alas, the Mustangs are .500 and that’s not really a good thing for that program.
SMU’s offense has never been questioned, even with Sonny Dykes now gone and with the undefeated Horned Frogs. But it’s clear right now that the level of competition is going to hinder what SMU plans to do this season. They struggle against the run and clearly dual-threat quarterbacks do not make things any better. That doesn’t help with a UCF team coming to town that is averaging almost 500 yards per game.
UCF has had a strong bounceback effort since losing to Louisville a few weeks ago. But starting the year with four home games out of five has to be a good thing for them. The Knights are coming off a 27-10 win over Georgia Tech, which suddenly looks so much better after GT beat Pittsburgh this past weekend. But UCF has to feel good after John Rhys Plumlee went 8 of 16 for 49 yards and an interception, but ran for 100 yards and a touchdown.
“A win is a win, no matter what it looks like,” said Plumlee, who has produced two games of 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards this season. “What stood out today was our defense and special teams.”
But it’s UCF’s defense has been just as dominant. They give up just 316.5 yards per game and are holding passing offenses to just 169.8 yards per game. Facing an SMU offense that’s been nothing but airing things out seems like music to the ears of UCF. You have to think that has to be the best way to go when picking this game. UCF has won 17 of its last 22 straight up as a favorite and even 11-2 straight up in the last 13 as a home favorite.
Prediction
UCF is about 3-point favorites in this one across the board, and I think that’s one line to keep a favorite in check. SMU could match things, but I don’t trust the Mustangs right now. UCF by 10
Betting trends
SMU is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 as a road underdog of 3 points or less.
SMU is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games.
UCF is 8-14 ATS as a favorite over the past three seasons.
UCF is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 home games.
Statistical leaders
SMU:
Passing: Tanner Mordecai -- 1,385 yards, 12 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Tre Siggers -- 200 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Rashee Rice -- 565 yards, 4 TD
UCF:
Passing: John Rhys Plumlee -- 827 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: John Rhys Plumlee -- 404 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Javon Baker -- 257 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
