by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 14, 2022Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Tulane -3
FanDuel: Tulane -3
BetMGM: Tulane -3.5
Caesars: Tulane -3
Season record
SMU: 6-4 (4-2 AAC)
No. 17 Tulane: 8-2 (5-1 AAC)
The college football fun never stops and we're inching closer to conference championship season. A lot of big games are still to be determined in who will play whom and where, and our top-notch handicappers have been at the forefront for the last month or so providing you with the winners you need to head into December with some confidence in your pocket. How can you be so sure? Of course you have to look at the likes of Kyle Hunter going 20-8-0 over the last 30 days, as well as Will Rogers at 22-14-0 over the last month. What about Vegas Writer? He's sitting at 12-6-1 over the last 30 days since joining our team of champion handicappers that has been killing it everywhere this year. You see the success rate. You need to be on board to join our guys who can get you where you need to go for the homestretch of the college football season. Make sure you're keeping tabs here at bigal.com to find out what our champion handicappers are thinking in all sports!
SMU - Tulane preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
SMU: won 3 straight; won 41-23 at South Florida
No. 17 Tulane: lost 38-31 vs. No. 22 UCF
The fun ride that we knew it for the Tulane Green Wave came to an end on Saturday. The last-ditch effort and comeback that the Green Wave nearly pulled off against Central Florida went for naught, and Tulane now finds itself on the outside looking in for a New Year’s Six Bowl without some help. Tulane will try and get back on track on Friday against the SMU Mustangs, winners of three straight and suddenly not out of this by a long shot.
But the talk will be about how close Tulane came to pulling off its best win of the year but falling short to a very good UCF program, losing 38-31 on Saturday in New Orleans. For the first time, Tulane met its match in the form of UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, who threw for 132 yards and a touchdown while also running for 176 and two scores in the victory.
Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt threw for 3 touchdowns, but had just 236 yards on 23 of 39 passing. Tyjae Spears ran for 130 yards on just 8 carries, but the offense was just too little, too late for the No. 17-ranked Green Wave. That number will likely go down once the new College Football Playoff rankings come out this week.
''I'm disappointed. We didn't play our best game,'' Tulane coach Willie Fritz said. ''When you play a quality team like UCF, you have to play well.''
You can’t get too mad at Tulane considering it was a moment where the Green Wave weren’t ready for the moment. It was probably the first big game its played as a serious national contender and it was against a program, and a coach in Gus Malzahan, that has been in that moment before. It’s how the Green Wave respond that’s going to be imperative for this, and it starts against a red-hot SMU club.
The Mustangs have won three in a row and have gotten back to the high-powered offensive ways and are winning games again. A win, with some help, could put SMU back in the conference title discussion. SMU is coming off a 41-23 win over South Florida over the weekend that saw Tanner Mordecai throw for 280 yards and 3 touchdowns on 19 of 27 completions.
Camar Wheaton added two touchdowns on the ground while running for 112 on the ground on 14 carries. When SMU is having both facets of their offense going, it’s tending to be a good night for the Mustangs. And you can tell they’re back after they hung 77 on the Houston Cougars a couple of weeks ago. Can it happen again, in New Orleans, against a team that should absolutely be getting back to its tough ways?
Prediction
I don’t think that’s the case. SMU is playing well, but it’s bound to run into a wall with how inconsistent it’s been over the year. I can’t think that it’s taking this second half – with conference title prospects nearly all but lost – for SMU to put it together. I’ve believed in Tulane all year long and it’s not about to stop. Tulane by 8
Betting trends
SMU is 20-37 ATS when line is +3 and -3 since 1992.
SMU is 2-10 ATS on the road after winning 4 of 5 since 1992.
SMU is 21-37 ATS after gaining 475 total yards in last game since 1992.
Tulane is 17-6 ATS at home after covering 4 or 5 out of its last 6 in 1992.
Tulane is 14-5 ATS after a conference game the last 3 years.
Statistical leaders
SMU:
Passing: Tanner Mordecai -- 2,780 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Tyler Lavine -- 405 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Rashee Rice -- 1,167 yards, 9 TD
Tulane:
Passing: Michael Pratt -- 2,079 yards, 17 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Tyjae Spears -- 875 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Jha'Quan Jackson -- 421 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
