SMU Mustangs vs TCU Horned Frogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/23/2023

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 23, 2023

Venue:  Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SMU +6.5, TCU -6.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SMU +7, TCU -7; Over/Under:  63 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SMU +6.5, TCU -6.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points

SMU Mustangs:  2-1 (0-0) (2nd place, AAC)

TCU Horned Frogs:  2-1 (1-0) (1st place, Big 12)

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SMU Mustangs:  won their last game at home against the Prairie View A&M Panthers 69-0.

TCU Horned Frogs:  won their last game on the road against the Houston Cougars 36-13.

SMU is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Prairie View A&M 69-0. Preston Stone was the starting QB and he completed 15/20 passes for 300 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Camar Wheaton led the team in rushing yards with 75 and 1 TD. Roderick Daniels Jr. led the receivers with 96 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Kori Roberson and Alex Kilgore each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Kori Roberson, Elijah Roberts, and Nelson Paul each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

TCU is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Houston 36-13. Chandler Morris was the starting QB and he completed 24/37 passes for 314 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Emani Bailey led the team in rushing yards with 126 and 1 TD. John Paul Richardson led the receivers with 60 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Johnny Hodges and Namdi Obiazor each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Paul Oyewale led the defense in sacks with 1. Bud Clark and Zach Marcheselli each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have TCU listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. TCU has looked good this season with their 2-1 record. They lost their season opener at home to Deion Sanders and Colorado but they have bounced back nicely with 2 big wins, including a big conference win against Houston on the road last week. They are going to have all the momentum from that game and it will carry over into this game against another heated rival. SMU is also 2-1 this season and have looked like a really improved team but the only team they have faced really is Oklahoma and they failed to even cover the double digit spread in that game. SMU is on the road in this game too and TCU is out to prove a point to everyone they play after getting embarrassed in the National Championship last year. TCU will be ready for this final game to put this old rivalry to bed. The best way to place a bet here is on TCU to cover the spread in this game. 

SMU TCU Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 23, 2023 (12:00 pm ET start time) is TCU 41 SMU 31.

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SMU Mustangs: 11-23 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. 18-29 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63. 8-2 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 27-13 OVER after playing 2 straight non-conference games. 

TCU Horned Frogs: 32-24 ATS off a double digit road win. 29-18 ATS after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. 7-2 OVER against American Athletic conference opponents. 8-4 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders. 13-6 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.

SMU Mustangs:  L. Johnson Jr. (RB) Ques Sat - Ankle. V. Gardner (RB) Out indefinitely - Suspension. J. Knighton (RB) Out indefinitely - Suspension.

TCU Horned Frogs:  D. Wright (WR) Ques Sat - Undisclosed.

"There is a different intensity to it. You can feel it in warm ups when you have an interstate rivalry or whatever it may be. You've got to go out and play the game with with passion not emotion and that's hard to do." - Rhett Lashlee on his team’s upcoming game against TCU this week. 

“We’ve just got to execute better. We’ve been a little unsettled. We took a step in the right direction in getting more settled, but we’re still making a lot of mistakes.” - Sonny Dykes after his team’s win against Houston in their last game. 

WR Kerley, Jordan 

WR Dixon, Moochie  

WR Bailey, Jake 

TE Maryland, RJ 

QB Stone, Preston 

RB Johnson Jr., LJ  

WR Williams, Savion 

WR Wright, Dylan  

WR Richardson, JP 

TE Wiley, Jared 

QB Morris, Chandler 

RB Bailey, Emani 

Passing: P. Stone (798)

Rushing: L. Johnson Jr. (153)

Receiving: J. Bailey (136)

Touchdowns: J. Hudson (2)

Passing: C. Morris (856)

Rushing: E. Bailey (357)

Receiving: J. Richardson (147)

Touchdowns: T. Sanders (4)

Coaches:

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (2nd season)

TCU Horned Frogs: Sonny Dykes (2nd season)