SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/19/2026

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 19, 2026

Venue:  L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SMU +1.5, Louisville -1.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SMU +1.5, Louisville -1.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SMU +1.5, Louisville -1.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

SMU Mustangs:  2-0 (1-0) (1st place, ACC)

Louisville Cardinals:  1-1 (0-0) (10th place, ACC)

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SMU Mustangs:  won their last game at home against the UC Davis Aggies 56-10.

Louisville Cardinals:  won their last game at home against the Villanova Wildcats 59-13.

SMU is entering this game with a 2-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against UC Davis 56-10. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 14/16 passes for 337 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Derrick McFall led the team in rushing yards with 46. Yamir Knight led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jaden Milliner-Jones and Sael Reyes each led the defense in that game with 4 tackles while Jimmy Wyrick and Amontre Harris each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jarvis Lee came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Louisville is entering this game with a 1-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Villanova 59-13. Lincoln Kienholz was the starting QB and he completed 16/21 passes for 332 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Marquise Davis led the team in rushing yards with 86 and 2 TDs. Lawayne McCoy led the receivers with 102 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Kaleb Beasley led the defense in that game with 7 tackles while Tyler Thompson led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Louisville listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Louisville hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 1-1 record overall so far. They have looked good on their home field though with their 1-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, SMU has looked good in their games this season with their 2-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record. They have been a good road team too with their 1-0 road record this year. SMU is coming off a big win over a team from the FCS and weren't really challenged in that game. They did have a challenge in week 1 though, going on the road and beating a conference opponent 27-24, but Florida State hasn't been a good program the last 2 years and SMU still barely scraped by in that one. Louisville is coming off a win over Villanova who is also in the FCS and they lost their only game against a power 4 opponent so far, but that game was at a neutral site and they were definitely challenged in it. They lost that game to Ole Miss 41-38 who is ranked top 10 in the nation and coming off a great season going to the CFP. Louisville couldn't come away with the win, but they lost a really tight game and the offense looked great with the 38 points they put up. SMU looked great on offense last week too, but they made a lot of mistakes against Florida State in week 1 and put themselves in a position to lose that game. This is going to be the best team they have faced so far and even though they already have a conference game and a road game under their belt, Louisville has a really talented offense that can expose SMU's defense. This is a game where both offenses are going to shine, but Louisville has the potential to be in the ACC Championship and they should be able to edge out SMU at home. The best way to place a bet here is on Louisville to cover the spread in this game. 

SMU Louisville Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Louisville 34 SMU 31.

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SMU Mustangs: 0-4 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. 4-7 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 7-1 OVER off a home win by 17 points or more.

Louisville Cardinals: 3-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 5-2 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. 7-3 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 14-6 OVER in games played on turf.

SMU Mustangs:  M. Uter (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Rhodes (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Rhodes (RB) Out - Knee.

Louisville Cardinals:  K. Brown (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. O'neal (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Quisenberry (WR) Out - Lower Body. K. Hughes (WR) Out - Lower Body.

“The heat for sure. It's the first time in my career that's been presented to us. I'm sure they want to get back as quick as they can. A lot of our younger guys on both teams still got to play a lot.” - Rhett Lashlee after his team’s win against UC Davis in their last game. 

“The more he runs and gets in the flow and gets hit, he gets better. I thought after (the first two incompletions) he was really sharp.” - Jeff Brohm after his team’s win against Villanova in their last game. 

WR Cooper, Jalen

WR Smith, Yannick

WR Knight, Yamir 

TE Melin Ohrstrom, Theo

QB Jennings, Kevin

RB Raphael, Kendrick

WR Hurry, TreyShun

WR McCoy, Lawayne

WR Richardson, Tre

TE Skinner, Jaleel

QB Kienholz, Lincoln

RB Brown, Isaac

Passing: Kevin Jennings (767)

Rushing: Kendrick Raphael (78)

Receiving: Yannick Smith (151)

Touchdowns: Yannick Smith (2)

Passing: Lincoln Kienholz (639)

Rushing: Lincoln Kienholz (111)

Receiving: Tre Richardson (181)

Touchdowns: Lincoln Kienholz (3)

Coaches:

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (5th season)

Louisville Cardinals: Jeff Brohm (4th season)