SMU Mustangs vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/07/2026

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Monday, September 7, 2026

Venue:  Doak S. Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SMU -3, FSU +3; Over/Under:  53.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SMU -3, FSU +3; Over/Under:  53.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SMU -3, FSU +3; Over/Under:  53.5 points

SMU Mustangs:  0-0 (0-0) (ACC)

Florida State Seminoles:  1-0 (0-0) (2nd place, ACC)

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SMU Mustangs:  N/A

Florida State Seminoles:  won their last game at home against the New Mexico State Aggies 34-17.

SMU finished last season with a 9-4 record overall and they had a 6-2 record in their conference games too.  They were 5-1 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they were also 1-0 in their neutral site games last season, but they will be on the road for this season opener. Last season, their offense was averaging 32.2 points scored per game while their defense was allowing an average of 20.5 points per game. Their offense also averaged 417 yards per game while their defense was allowing an average of 395.1 yards per game. Kevin Jennings led the team in passing yards with 3,641, TJ Harden led the team in rushing yards with 787, and Jordan Hudson led the team in receiving yards with 766.

 

 

 

Florida State is entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against New Mexico State 34-17. Ashton Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 17/27 passes for 202 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Ousmane Kromah led the team in rushing yards with 115 and 1 TD. Samuel Singleton Jr. led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Ashlynd Barker led the defense in that game with 8 tackles while Mikai Gbayor, Rylan Kennedy, and Jalen Anderson each led the defense in sacks with 1. Quindarrius Jones came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have SMU listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU had a good season going 9-4 and they ended the year with a win in their bowl game, but they definitely took a step back last season considering they were in the CFP the year before. They will be looking to get back there this season and they are in a more wide open ACC with Miami being the only true challenge in the conference. They are returning Kevin Jennings for another year at QB though and the offense has been really good with him leading the charge. They have reloaded the roster all over too, so they are going to be an improved team and will be a threat to go to the ACC Championship again. Meanwhile, Florida State had a bad season going 5-7 and failed to even become bowl eligible. They looked like they were going to turn things around last season when they opened the season with a big win over Alabama, but the wheels fell off for them shortly after as they were never really that good. They are already 1-0 to start this season after a win against New Mexico State in week 0, but it has been all downhill for this program since that undefeated season a few years ago and now Norvell could find himself on the hot seat this year. They didn't look all that impressive in their 1st game against a lesser opponent and that defense still gave up 17 points at home to a bad offense. They also had trouble pulling away early on in that game and that will be a big issue against SMU who can put them away early with that offense if they get rolling. This is a big game for the conference too, so look for SMU to open up their season with a statement win on the road in the conference and show that they are back this season as a real threat in the league. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game. 

SMU Florida State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Monday, September 7, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is SMU 31 Florida State 21.

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SMU Mustangs: 11-6 ATS against conference opponents. 11-7 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 25-18 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 10-3 UNDER in games played on a grass field.

Florida State Seminoles: 6-16 ATS against FBS division opponents. 2-9 ATS as an underdog. 4-12 ATS against conference opponents. 15-7 UNDER against FBS division opponents. 9-1 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 

SMU Mustangs:  L. Rhodes (RB) Out - Knee. K. Jennings (QB) Questionable - Finger. C. Rhodes (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Uter (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed.

Florida State Seminoles:  D. Carter (WR) Out - Back.

"No pain, and we are working him back in this week and expect him to have a full two weeks to get ready for game one and be 100%.” - Rhett Lashlee on the injury to Kevin Jennings.  

“I think the team did well, I think the offense did well. Obviously, there’s some plays that we want to have back. But I think that we responded very well to some negative plays, putting points on the board.” - Ashton Daniels after their win against NMSU in their last game. 

WR Cooper, Jalen

WR Smith, Yannick

WR Knight, Yamir 

TE Melin Ohrstrom, Theo

QB Jennings, Kevin

RB Raphael, Kendrick

WR Robinson, Duce

WR Danzy, Micahi

WR Boggs, Jayvan

TE Riles, Desirrio

QB Daniels, Ashton

RB Kromah, Ousmane

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

Passing: Ashton Daniels (202)

Rushing: Ousmane Kromah (115)

Receiving: Samuel Singleton Jr. (54)

Touchdowns: Samuel Singleton Jr. (2)

Coaches:

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (5th season)

Florida State Seminoles: Mike Norvell (7th season)