SMU Mustangs vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/10/2026

Game Time: 2:00 pm ET, Saturday, January 10, 2026

Venue:  Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SMU +11.5, Duke -11.5; Over/Under:  157.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SMU +11.5, Duke -11.5; Over/Under:  157.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SMU +11.5, Duke -11.5; Over/Under:  157.5 points

SMU Mustangs:  12-3 (1-1) (7th place, ACC)

Duke Blue Devils:  14-1 (3-0) (1st place, ACC)

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SMU Mustangs:  3-2  last 5

Duke Blue Devils:  4-1  last 5

SMU is entering this game with a 12-3 record overall, a 1-1 record in conference games, and they are 1-2 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Clemson Tigers in their last game. Kevin Miller led the team in points in that game with 23 while Samet Yigitoglu was next on the team with 14. B.J. Edwards led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Samet Yigitoglu led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 37.3% from the field, 35.3% from 3-point range, and 89.7% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 90.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 76.7 PPG against them. SMU has an ATS record of 7-7-1 this season and their O/U record is 9-6.

Duke is entering this game with a 14-1 record overall, a 3-0 conference record, and they are 7-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Louisville Cardinals in their last game. Cameron Boozer led the team in points in that game with 27 while Isaiah Evans was next on the team with 23. Cameron Boozer led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Cameron Boozer and Maliq Brown each led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 50.9% from the field, 30.4% from 3-point range, and 67.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 87.1 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 66 PPG against them. Duke has an ATS record of 8-7 this season and their O/U record is 5-10.

The current betting odds have SMU listed as an 11.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU has looked good in their games this season with their 12-3 record overall and their 1-1 conference record which has them in the top half of the ACC. They haven't been a great road team though with their 1-2 road record this year. Meanwhile, Duke has looked great in their games this season with their 14-1 record overall and their 3-0 conference record which has them right at the top of the ACC. They have looked great on their home court too with their 7-0 home record this season. Duke was rolling to start the season, beating a lot of good ranked opponents and blowing out a lot of inferior teams too. They haven't looked as good in their games lately though, struggling to blow teams out now that conference play has started. They took their first loss of the season to Texas Tech, and they haven't really been winning many games by large margins since that loss. They have bounced back with 3 wins in a row now and they are still undefeated in the ACC, but they struggled to beat up on Georgia Tech and Florida State, winning in much tighter games. They are off a big road win over Louisville in their last one, but Louisville was also missing one of their best players. SMU is off a loss to Clemson in their last one so they will be looking to bounce back, and they did keep that game close with a 4 point loss in the end. They also have a nice home win over UNC this year and they have the talent to keep this a tighter game with Duke slowing down lately. Look for SMU to keep this game competitive. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game. 

SMU Duke Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, January 10, 2026 (2:00 pm ET start time) is Duke 78 SMU 72.

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SMU Mustangs: 5-12 ATS as an underdog. 3-6 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival. 3-11 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 8-4 UNDER as a road underdog or pick. 6-3 UNDER off a road loss against a conference rival.

Duke Blue Devils: 35-21 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points. 10-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). 22-11 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 20-10 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 29-18 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 45% of their shots or more.

SMU Mustangs:  None.

Duke Blue Devils:  I. Ufochukwu (C) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Wilkins (G-F) Out - Redshirt.

"We beat ourselves a lot, especially in the first half. We did some really uncharacteristic things. You can't allow physicality to force you to take bad shots. Our guys are experienced and they understand that they have to play better, and they will." - Andy Enfield after his team’s loss against Clemson in their last game. 

"Offensively, his efficiency, his ability to make others better. I think for him, he just understands what the game requires. Just his love for the game, his preparation and then his ability to feel what's required." - Jon Scheyer on his team this season.

B. Edwards 

K. Miller 

J. Pierre 

C. Washington 

S. Yigitoglu

C. Boozer 

I. Evans 

C. Foster 

P. Ngongba 

D. Sarr

PPG: Boopie Miller (20.6)

APG: Boopie Miller (7.1)

Reb/G: Samet Yigitoglu (8.8)

PPG: Cameron Boozer (23.3)

APG: Cameron Boozer (4.2)

Reb/G: Cameron Boozer (9.7)

Coaches:

SMU Mustangs: Andy Enfield (2nd season)

Duke Blue Devils: Jon Scheyer (4th season)