by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Nov 19, 2021
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Cincinnati -10.5
BetMGM: Cincinnati -10.5
Caesars: Cincinnati -11
Season record
SMU: 8-2 (4-2 AAC)
No. 5 Cincinnati: 10-0 (6-0 AAC)
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SMU - Cincinnati preview and analysis
Last week
SMU: won 55-28 vs. Central Florida
Cincinnati: won 45-28 at South Florida
Remember a while ago that this was supposed to be the marquee matchup in the American Athletic Conference?
So much for that.
But the Cincinnati Bearcats’ run to the College Football Playoff continues on Saturday when they can clinch a spot in the AAC title game with a win over the SMU Mustangs at Nippert Stadium.
It’s Senior Day for Cincinnati and there may not be a more hyped crowd that has been to that stadium this season. The Bearcats are sitting at No. 5 in the College Football Playoff ranking and, barring anything drastic, may still need some help in order to get that opportunity.
But what will help is winning their final three games including a potential AAC championship matchup with the one-loss Houston Cougars. Cincinnati is coming off a 45-28 victory over the South Florida Bulls in Tampa last week in which Desmond Ridder threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns.
Overall, it was a dominant game from the Bearcats. They led 31-7 three minutes into the third quarter after Ridder hit Josh Whyle for a 21-yard touchdown pass. Cincinnati, despite turning it over three times, benefited with four USF turnovers and outgained the Bulls 506-346.
Cincinnati combined for 202 rushing yards and four touchdowns led by Ryan Montgomery’s 72 yards on six carries. He had a 55-yard touchdown run to add to that game. Ridder had a solid day on the ground, as well, running for 65 yards and a touchdown.
This is an experienced Cincy group that has 32 seniors that will be honored. The Bearcats’ 41 fourth-year seniors are 41-6, while the fifth-year guys are 45-14. It’s a program that knows how to play in big-time games under coach Luke Fickell, and it understands the magnitude of this game against the high-scoring SMU offense.
After losing their first two games of the season to the aforementioned Cougars and the Memphis Tigers two weeks ago, the Mustangs rebounded for a 55-28 victory over the Central Florida Knights. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns and helped an offense that put up 631 yards on the UFC defense.
This game was a 21-14 play through one quarter, but it quickly turned into a dominant SMU showing. The Mustangs defense held UCF to 333 yards led by DeVere Levelston’s career-high three sacks, as well as Elijah Chatman’s two sacks.
Prediction
The one thing that can’t be argued about Cincinnati is its ability to win with either offense or defense. The defense hasn’t gotten as much shine as it should for why they’re 10-0. But the one concern I have is SMU’s offense will be the toughest challenge the Cincy defense has faced. It’s a one-dimensional group led by Mordecai’s cannon for an arm, but he’s going to be pressured greatly by that Bearcats front. Cincinnati is 4-1 all-time against SMU and won 42-13 last year. The Mustangs keep it close and cover, but the Bearcats pull out the win. Cincinnati by 6
Betting trends
SMU is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 road games.
SMU is 3-10 ATS on the road when the total is equal or greater than 63.
SMU is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 off a conference win.
Cincinnati is 5-5 ATS this season.
Cincinnati is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 following a win streak of eight or more.
Statistical leaders
SMU:
Passing: Tanner Mordecai -- 3,264 yards, 37 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Tre Siggers -- 663 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Danny Gray -- 803 yards, 9 TD
Cincinnati:
Passing: Desmond Ridder -- 2,425 yards, 22 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Jerome Ford -- 888 yards, 15 TD
Receiving: Alec Pierce -- 627 yards, 4 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
