SMU Mustangs vs California Golden Bears Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 11/29/2025

Game Time: 8:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 29, 2025

Venue:  California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SMU -13.5, Cal +13.5; Over/Under:  52.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SMU -13.5, Cal +13.5; Over/Under:  53 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SMU -13.5, Cal +13.5; Over/Under:  52.5 points

SMU Mustangs:  8-3 (6-1) (3rd place, ACC)

California Golden Bears:  6-5 (3-4) (11th place, ACC)

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SMU Mustangs:  won their last game at home against the Louisville Cardinals 38-6.

California Golden Bears:  lost their last game on the road against the Stanford Cardinal 31-10.

SMU is entering this game with an 8-3 record overall and they have a 6-1 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Louisville 38-6. Kevin Jennings was the starting QB and he completed 29/37 passes for 303 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. T.J. Harden led the team in rushing yards with 90. Jordan Hudson led the receivers with 96 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Ahmaad Moses led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Brandon Miyazono and Isaiah Smith each led the defense in sacks with 1. Tyren Polley came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

California is entering this game with a 6-5 record overall and they have a 3-4 record in their conference games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Stanford 31-10. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was the starting QB and he completed 33/49 passes for 269 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Kendrick Raphael led the team in rushing yards with 47. Trond Grizzell led the receivers with 104 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Hezekiah Masses led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Aidan Keanaaina and TJ Bush Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have SMU listed as a 13.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU has looked really good in their games this season with their 8-3 record overall and their 6-1 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. They haven't looked as good in their road games this year with their 3-2 road record, but they are currently ranked inside the top 25 and have a chance to make the ACC Championship. Meanwhile, California has looked good in their games this season with their 6-5 record overall, but their 3-4 conference record has them in the bottom half of the ACC. They have looked better on their home field with their 3-2 home record, but lately they haven't looked good. They are off a 31-10 loss to Stanford in their last one and that game was the final straw for their head coach. They fired Wilcox after the loss and they really have nothing left to play for since they are already bowl eligible. SMU has a lot more to play for here with a trip to the ACC Championship on the line, and they have a ton of momentum on their side. They have taken down some good teams in the ACC this season and they are off another great win in their last one, beating Louisville 38-6. Their offense has been rolling all year as they put up a ton of points in every game, and their defense has looked better lately too. SMU has everything to play for here while the motivation for Cal after losing to Stanford last week is questionable. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game. 

SMU California Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 29, 2025 (8:00 pm ET start time) is SMU 42 California 24.

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SMU Mustangs: 7-3 ATS in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 17-8 ATS against conference opponents. 7-4 ATS off a home win against a conference rival. 7-4 OVER off a home win against a conference rival. 7-1 OVER on the road vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game.

California Golden Bears: 3-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 9-15 ATS against conference opponents. 0-3 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. 9-5 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.

SMU Mustangs:  K. Ferm (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Spencer (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Gentry (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Jefferson (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Woods (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Washington (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Robertson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Medlock (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

California Golden Bears:  L. Robinson (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Tounkara (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Bryant (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Burrell (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Marshall (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Bjerke (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. McCulloch (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Parker (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Johnson Jr. (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Crosby (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Sidney (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Hamper (WR) Out - Undisclosed.

“Out there having fun, showing love to my guys. It's senior day for them, had to show love and give him a touchdown instead of running one in.” - Kevin Jennings after their win against Louisville in their last game.

“There were plenty of opportunities to move the ball and score touchdowns and keep them off the field. We didn’t do it. We just shot ourselves in the foot way too many times.” - Justin Wilcox after Cal’s loss against Stanford in their last game. 

WR Brinson, Romello

WR Hudson, Jordan

WR Maryland, RJ

TE Hibner, Matthew

QB Jennings, Kevin

RB Harden, TJ

WR King, Jordan

WR Grizzell, Trond

WR De Jesus, Jacob

TE Mini, Mason

QB Sagapolutele, Jaron-Keawe

RB Raphael, Kendrick

Passing: Kevin Jennings (3,113)

Rushing: T.J. Harden (703)

Receiving: Jordan Hudson (691)

Touchdowns: T.J. Harden (7)

Passing: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (2,787)

Rushing: Kendrick Raphael (742)

Receiving: Jacob De Jesus (795)

Touchdowns: Kendrick Raphael (12)

Coaches:

SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (4th season)

California Golden Bears: Nick Rolovich (Interim)