Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers Picks and Preview - 09/18/2022

 

Game Time:  4:05  pm ET, Sunday, September 18th, 2021

Venue:  Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California

Where to Watch:  FOX

 

 

BetMGM:  Spread: 49ers -9.5; O/U 41.5

Caesars: Spread:  49ers -9.5; O/U 41.5

FanDuel: Spread: 49ers -9.5; O/U 41.5

 

Holy Point Spread Batman!  Did no one see Trey Lance’s first game with the 49ers this season?.. It was shockingly bad.  It led to a 49ers loss.  To make matters more perplexing, Geno Smith's Seahawks first game showed a team with a strong (although lesser thought of) quarterback who beat the Denver Broncos against former Seahawks Quarterback and legend Russell Wilson.  Vegas thinks a huge point spread will get you betting… They might be right.  They are also betting heavily on the roster around Trey Lance to cover this HUGE spread. 

 

 

Seahawks: 7-10 last season, 4th place NFC West /  1-0 this season.

49ers: 10-7 last season, 3rd place NFC West / 0-1 this season.

The NFC West is and will be a mystery this season.  It produced the Super Bowl winner last season in the Los Angeles Rams, it has the newest vastly overpaid young, athletic Quarterback on the Arizona Cardinals, It has question marks up and down every roster because of crazy offseason changes.  After Game 1 the Seahawks are the only NFC West team without a loss… and they won by the oddity of a weird Broncos field goal attempt.  So, last season’s last place team can say (for at least a week) that they are the only unbeaten team in the division.  Head scratching stuff is going on…. Get your bets right and this could be the division that consistently pays big against weird spreads.

The Seattle Seahawks team was supposed to be one of the worst in football… They may still be.  But they beat the Denver Broncos 17-16 in Game 1… they were the underdogs so they won outright.   Geno Smith looked great at the game’s start… He went 17 of 17 before his first incompletion.  He ultimately went 23-of-28 for 195 yards and two touchdowns.  He didn’t set any records, but he looked as prepared as a guy who has the starting job could get.  The Seahawks offensive line is not good… Geno offset that by getting rid of the ball quickly.  The WR core may be much deeper than we originally thought since the bright spots were Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson… who share the targets with much better known DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and RB Rashaad Penny.  A lot of people will tell you that this game was a fluke… and Vegas is saying it with the HUGE point spread… but a win is a win.  

The San Francisco 49ers have less answers than they thought after Game 1.  By making the drastic step toward cutting Jimmy G… announce Trey Lance as the new starter, and re-signing Jimmy G as the team’s backup… has created a very bizarre vortex.  The 49ers have a “win now” roster and the quarterback who took them to both two NFC Championship games and 1 Super Bowl in 4 seasons… is playing back-up to the QB with the current lowest completion percentage in the league.  Huh?... When will the barbarians charge the gate and demand a change of leadership?... When will the heads land on spikes?... When will the change be made?  Trey Lance and his “win now roster” lost to Justin Fields and his “we lose a lot” Chicago Bears 19-10.  That is wildly disheartening.  Because comparing Trey Lance and Justin Fields is truly an Apples to Apples comparison… both second year QB’s, both struggled in their rookie year… and now with Trey having the much better roster… Justin got the win.  

 

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RECENT FORM

The 49ers came out of Game 1 28th in the league in scoring with only 10 points, 20th in yards gained with only 331, and 30th in passing yards with only 155… They fared better in the rushing game where they are now 7th with 176 yards.

The Seahawks came out of Game 1 25th in points scored with 17, 29th in yards gained with 253,  27th in passing yards with 177, and 24th in rushing yards with 76.

 

The 49ers defense is so far the star of that show.  They finished Game1 1st in total yards defended by only allowing 204, and 1st in passing yards defended by only allowing 105, 15th in rushing yards defended by allowing 99, and 10th in defense of points by only allowing 19.

The Seahawks defense came out of Game 1 29th in yards defended by allowing 433 yards, 30th in pass defense by allowing 330, and 7th in points defended by only allowing 16… How did they even win this one?... It was the two takeaways that destroyed the Broncos offensive numbers.  Was that skill or luck?

Our prediction for Sunday, September 18th is… 49ers 21 - Seahawks 17

The bet has got to be on the Seahawks to cover that HUGE spread.  This game will be the actual verdict on Trey Lance… If he plays poorly again… to another soft defense and shaky quarterback on the other side… The shouts for pulling the plug will be in his own stadium.  That is a lot of pressure for a young kid who doesn’t technically have the experience both in the NFL AND in his college days to even have this job.  YOU GET 9 POINTS to cushion any scary moments.

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Seattle is 28-14 ATS versus San Fran since 1992.

Seattle is 12-7 ATS versus San Fran at San Fran since 1992.

Seattle is 3-0 ATS versus San Fran the last 3 seasons.

Pete Carroll is 22-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 - 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle.

 

Seahawks: J Adams (quad) Out ** DE A Robinson (knee) Out ** G D Lewis Quest ** T J Curhan Quest ** CB A Burns Quest

49ers: RB E Mitchell (knee) Out ** OL D Brunskill (hammy) Quest ** DB J Ward Out ** 

Seahawks: QB Geno Smith, RB Rashaad Penny, WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett, TE Noah Fant, TE Will Dissly, LT Charles Cross, LG Phil Haynes, C Austin Blythe, RG Gabe Jackson, RT Abraham Lucas.

49ers: QB Trey Lance, RB Elijah Mitchell, WR Deebo Samuel, WR Brandon Ayuk, WR Jauan Jennings, TE George Kittle, FB Kyle Juszczyk, LT Trent Williams, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Spencer Buford, RT Mike McGlinchey

Showers, 68*, Humidity 71%, Wind 14 mph, Precipitation chance of 60%... we have seen how well Trey Lance passes the ball in the rain… Haven’t we?