by Chuck Sommers
Monday, May 02, 2022
Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Where to watch: ROOTNW, AT&T SportsNet-SW
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Astros -130, Mariners +110
BetMGM: Astros -135, Mariners +110
Caesars: Astros -125, Mariners +105
Season record
Mariners: 12-10
Astros: 11-11
We're fresh into this baseball season and of course it's AAA Sports jumping out to an 11-5-0 start in Major League Baseball over the course of the last week. We've seen some exciting games and some awesome moments, but what will happen as April continues for the better? Catch AAA's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Mariners - Astros preview and analysis
The Julio Rodriguez Show is here, and the Seattle Mariners have never been more inclined to let it fly than right now. Rodriguez, the top prospect in Seattle, blasted a 450-foot bomb to left center field for his first homer in the major leagues and propelled Seattle to a 7-3 win over the once-red-hot Miami Marlins.
It was a much-needed win for the Mariners to avoid the sweep to Miami, but now they hit the road for a three-game set against the Houston Astros beginning Monday at Minute Maid Park in what the Mariners can only hope is the moment that jumpstarts Rodriguez’s major league run.
Rodriguez turned a 2-1 pitch into a three-run homer that jumped Seattle’s lead to 5-0 in the sixth inning. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara just did a small pirouette, looked up and looked back down knowing that ball wasn’t coming back. Seattle intentionally walked Abraham Toro to bring up Rodriguez.
He took that personally.
“That was a first -- and that’s what they got,” Rodríguez said.
“It was ‘OK, you want to challenge me, I’m going to give you the challenge.’ That is what I was feeling. ‘You want it? Let’s go.’ … I was really excited, honestly. It felt really good to get my first homer in a game like that.”
It was a moment the Mariners have waited from the No. 3 prospect in baseball, and if this is what brings the Mariners’ offense alive given how they’re only off to a 12-10 start, that’s got to be a good sign of things to come.
“That’s kind of the Julio breakout game,” manager Scott Servais said. “We have been waiting for that first home run to come and it couldn’t have come at a better time. He killed it. That was a bomb. He continues to trend in the right direction. He tells me all the time that he’s ‘trending.’ We’ll keep riding that trend.”
And if there was a time to feast on the inconsistent Astros, it might be now. The bats are off to a slow start this season, and that trend continued after losing 3-2 to the Toronto Blue Jays and dropping two of three over the weekend to the star-studded AL East contenders.
Framber Valdez threw 6.1 innings, but the Astros had only two runs on eight hits, with three of them coming from Kyle Tucker and two more coming from Aledmys Diaz. Meanwhile, Yordan Alvarez went 0-for-4 while leaving three on base, Michael Brantley went 0-for-4, Chas McCormick went 1-for-4, and Yuli Gurriel went 0-for-4.
Literally nothing could go right for Houston, now at 11-11 through the first month of the season.
“It’s two of the best teams in baseball competing against each other,” said third baseman Alex Bregman, who came into Sunday’s contest in the ninth as a pinch-hitter. “It’s a high level of baseball being played. And it’s fun competing against such a great team like them. ... Definitely wouldn’t be surprised to play against them again this year.”
If there’s any silver lining here, Alvarez took a no-hitter into the sixth before things went awry. We’ll see what happens if fortune changes course.
Prediction
I don’t know if I believe in May momentum, but I think it works for individuals in need of getting hot at the right time. For the Mariners to take that leap this year, they need Rodriguez to keep mashing taters for very far distances. It’ll take time, but getting that monkey off the back tends to help. Wouldn’t shock me if it were to happen in this scenario. Mariners win 7-4
Betting trends
Mariners are 54-39 when the line is between +125 and -125 the past three years.
Mariners are 71-51 against division opponents the past three seasons.
Astros are 122-76 the past three seasons as a favorite.
Astros are 78-47 at home the past three seasons.
Projected lineup
Mariners:
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Ty France (R) 1B
Jesse Winker (L) LF
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
J.P. Crawford (L) SS
Abraham Toro (S) DH
Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
Jarred Kelenic (L) RF
Tom Murphy (R) C
SP - Marco Gonzales
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Ty France (R) 1B
Jesse Winker (L) LF
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
J.P. Crawford (L) SS
Abraham Toro (S) DH
Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
Jarred Kelenic (L) RF
Tom Murphy (R) C
SP - Marco Gonzales
Astros:
Chas McCormick (R) CF
Michael Brantley (L) DH
Aledmys Diaz (R) 3B
Yordan Alvarez (L) LF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Niko Goodrum (S) 2B
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Martin Maldonado (R) C
SP - Jake Odorizzi
Chas McCormick (R) CF
Michael Brantley (L) DH
Aledmys Diaz (R) 3B
Yordan Alvarez (L) LF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Niko Goodrum (S) 2B
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Martin Maldonado (R) C
SP - Jake Odorizzi
Statistical leaders
Mariners:
Batting average: J.P. Crawford -- .372
Hits: Two tied -- 29
Home runs: Ty France -- 5
RBI: Ty France -- 21
Wins: Logan Gilbert -- 4
Saves: Three tied -- 1
ERA: Logan Gilbert -- 0.64
Astros:
Batting average: Chas McCormick -- .288
Hits: Two tied -- 20
Home runs: Yordan Alvarez -- 6
RBI: Kyle Tucker -- 15
Wins: Two tied -- 2
Saves: Ryan Pressly -- 3
ERA: Justin Verlander -- 1.73
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert MLB picks today. And if you enjoyed this Seattle Mariners - Houston Astros preview, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and predictions.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
