Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: American League Division Series, Game 1 Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/11/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Monday, Oct 10, 2022
American League Division Series: Game 1

Time: 3:37 p.m. ET
Venue: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Where to watch: TBS

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Astros -210, Mariners +180
FanDuel: Astros -210, Mariners +176
BetMGM: Astros -227, Mariners +185
Caesars: Astros -220, Mariners +180

Season record
Mariners: 90-72 (2nd place, AL West, won wild card series vs. Blue Jays 2-0)
Astros: 106-56 (clinched AL West, homefield throughout playoffs)

What a wild card round that was. Excitement, upsets, great pitching, all the fun things! What in the world can we expect in the division series? Matt Fargo has cashed in over the last 30 days with a 14-10-0 mark. You know the bets are about to get even more fun as we get deeper into October. Who do you have winning it all? Still unsure who you think will win? Look no further on our Best Bets page to find out who all our champion handicappers are picking en route to the World Series at bigal.com.

Mariners - Astros Game 1 preview and analysis


Sometimes, you just firmly believe that there are teams of destiny. Even though it may seem like their backs are against the wall in a lopsided playoff matchup, you just throw your hands in the air and accept the fact that maybe teams are just meant to go all the way with a little bit of luck and sheer determination. And if that doesn’t describe the Seattle Mariners to a T, I’m not sure what will because not only are the Mariners in the American League Division Series for the first time in 20 years, there is absolutely reason to believe that they can defeat the top-seeded Houston Astros in a best-of-5 series.

Crazy, I know, but it’s all about being that team of destiny. Look no further than what the Mariners just accomplished over the weekend in Toronto. Down 8-1 and then 9-5, the Mariners somehow roared all the way back in the final few innings, destroyed the collective soul of the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen, and outscored Toronto 9-1 in the latter half of Game 2 and win 10-9 to get to this point.

“I don’t think about winning one series,” outfielder Mitch Haniger said. “I think about winning the World Series a lot. Like, every day.”

The Mariners are one of the final eight. Why wouldn’t they feel like they could win it all? The way Game 2 of the Toronto series ended, you have to think they have a chance. Seattle gave up a four-spot in the bottom of the fifth to trail 8-1 heading into the sixth. A wild pitch scored Ty France, and then Carlos Santana took the next pitch deep to left for a 3-run shot. Toronto got one back in the seventh, but Cal Raleigh proved clutch again with an RBI single, and then a three-run, bases-clearing shallow double from J.P. Crawford – when Bo Bichette and George Springer collided – sent the Pacific Northwest into a frenzy.

Then it was up to Adam Frazier in the ninth, driving Raleigh home on a double to right to give Seattle the lead, and send Toronto into the house of frauds it really is.

"Those are the kind of moments you picture yourself in in the backyard when you're a kid," Frazier said.

But being the bottom-seeded wild card team has its disadvantages, and with Seattle taking on the Astros, it’s going to be as big of an uphill climb as one can be. Because if you looked up, you missed the incredible season the Astros had, and you missed the incredible run that Game 1 starter Justin Verlander put forth this season. The future Hall-of-Famer has revitalized his career in Houston, and is on his way to another Cy Young after an 18-4 year and a 1.75 ERA for the 106-win Astros that went a dominant 55-26 at home.

“I think I’m probably the least surprised person [that] I’m here,” said Verlander, who is making his first playoff start since Tommy John surgery that ended his 2021 season. “Everybody wants to ask me, ‘How amazed are you?’ For me, I’m not. I know how hard I worked, I know how good I felt, I know how good the rehab went, I know how good my body felt at the end of the season. To me, this was maybe not what was supposed to happen, but what I expected to happen.”

Verlander went 5-1 during the regular season against the Mariners with a 2.34 ERA. In short, he was dominant. And while the Mariners haven’t named a Game 1 starter yet, it’s going to be a tough test for Seattle to get through.

Prediction


The key for the Mariners is to at least get a split in Houston. Doing it against Verlander won’t be easy. Game 2? A likely better chance once Seattle knows what the rotation will be like. I still believe the Mariners are a team of destiny, but in Game 1, Verlander shows his stuff. Astros win 5-2

Betting trends


Mariners are 28-26 (+22.1 units on the ML) as a road dog between +150 and +200 the past three years.

Mariners are 142-117 (+37.9 units on the ML) against right-handed starters the past three years.

Mariners are 22-12 this season after a one-run victory.

Astros are 54-24 this season as a favorite of -110 or higher.

Astros are 42-13 in day games this season.

Projected lineup


Mariners:
Julio Rodriguez (R) CF
Ty France (R) 1B
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
Cal Raleigh (S) C
Mitch Haniger (R) RF
Adam Frazier (L) 2B
Carlos Santana (S) DH
Jarred Kelenic (L) LF
J.P. Crawford (L) SS

Astros:
Jose Altuve (R) 2B
Jeremy Pena (R) SS
Yordan Alvarez (L) DH
Alex Bregman (R) 3B
Kyle Tucker (L) RF
Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B
Trey Mancini (R) LF
Christian Vazquez (R) C
Chas McCormick (R) CF

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert MLB picks today. And if you enjoyed this Seattle Mariners - Houston Astros preview, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and predictions.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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