Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/31/2024

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  ROOT Sports NW

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -122, Red Sox +102; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -120, Red Sox +100; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -120, Red Sox +100; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Seattle Mariners:  56-52 (2nd place, AL West)

Boston Red Sox:  56-49 (3rd place, AL East)

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Seattle Mariners:  4-6 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  3-7 last 10

The Mariners are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-52 record overall and have a road record of 25-29. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Mariners lost the series opener of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .670 OPS. Luis Castillo is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while George Kirby is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 8-7 with a 3.03 ERA this season. His team lost 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 7 Ks on 6 hits through 7 IP against the Chicago White Sox.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-49 record overall and have a home record of 26-27. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Wednesday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Tuesday. The Red Sox won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .765 OPS. James Paxton is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Brayan Bello is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 10-5 with a 5.27 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 BB with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5 innings played against the New York Yankees.

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 56-52 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AL West and now chasing down the Astros in 1st place after leading the division for most of the season. They haven't looked good in their road games this year with their 25-29 road record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked good in their games this season with their 56-49 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the AL East and fighting for a Wild Card spot. They have been worse at home this season with their 26-27 home record though. Both of these teams have struggled lately, the Mariners being 4-6 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are only 3-7, but the Mariners will have some momentum here form a sweep of the White Sox over the weekend while the Red Sox lost 2 of 3 at home to the Yankees. The Mariners did lose the 1st game of this series on Monday, but they have a more favorable pitching matchup here which will give them the edge in this one. The Mariners are going with Kirby in this one and he has been really consistent all season. He is 8-7 with a 3.03 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs in his starts lately. The team hasn't really had much success with him lately, losing 4 of the last 5 games he started in, but he gave up no runs in his last start and has been pitching so well lately that he is due for a win in this one. The Red Sox are going with Bello on the mound and he leads the starting rotation in wins this season, but he is 10-5 with a 5.27 ERA since he hasn't really been keeping runs off the board. The team has won 4 of their last 5 games with him starting, but he gave up 3 earned runs in his last start and that has been on the lower end in his starts. The Mariners lost 14-7 on Monday but their offense is putting up runs so they aren't going to be shut down by Bello in this one, and Kirby has a much better chance of having a great outing here with the way he has looked all season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game.

Mariners Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, July 31, 2024 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Mariners 7 Red Sox 4.

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Seattle Mariners: 8-4 (+4.70 units) on the runline in their last 12 away games. 7-4 (+4.75 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 11 away games. 27-19 to the over in their last 46 away games. 

Boston Red Sox: 26-28 (-8.50 units) on the moneyline in their last 54 home games. 41-55 (-22.40 units) on the runline in their last 96 games. 39-27 to the over in their last 66 games.

Seattle Mariners:  R. Arozarena (LF) Ques Tues - Undisclosed. B. Woo (SP) Ques Tues - Hamstring. J. Crawford (SS) Out indefinitely - Finger. J. Rodriguez (RF) Out indefinitely - Leg. D. Canzone (LF) Late July - Groin. J. Farmelo (CF) out for season - Knee. S. Haggerty (2B) out for season - Achilles. M. Brash (SP) out of season - Elbow. J. Kowar (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  B. Mata (SP) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Slaten (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. C. Martin (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. L. Hendriks (RP) Early August - Elbow. G. Whitlock (RP) Out indefinitely - Oblique. C. Murphy (RP) out for season - Elbow. V. Grissom (2B) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. L. Giolito (SP) out for season - Elbow. T. Casas (3B) Out indefinitely - Ribs. T. Story (2B) out for season - Shoulder.

“We had two strikes on Abreu and couldn't get strike 3. To his credit, he had a really good at-bat to finish it off." - Scott Servais after his team’s loss against the Red Sox in their game on Monday.

“That changed the game, then Abreu puts on that at-bat. He beat him with the fastball his first at-bat. He went to the fastball a lot in that one, and Wily just stayed on him. ... That was an awesome at-bat.” - Alex Cora after his team’s win against the Mariners in their game on Monday.

V Robles (R) CF

R Arozarena (R) LF

C Raleigh (S) C

J Polanco (S) 2B

L Raley (L) RF

D Moore (R) SS

J Vosler (L) 1B

M Haniger (R) DH

J Rojas (L) 3B

J Duran (L) CF

W Abreu (L) RF

M Yoshida (L) DH

R Devers (L) 3B

T O'Neill (R) LF

Do Smith (L) 1B

C Wong (R) C

D Hamilton (L) 2B

C Rafaela (R) SS

Batting Average:  Randy Arozarena (.455)

Hits:  Julio Rodríguez (101)

Home Runs:  Cal Raleigh (23)

RBI:  Cal Raleigh (67)

Stolen Bases:  Dylan Moore (19)

Wins:  Luis Castillo (8)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (18)

ERA:  Yimi García (0.00)

Batting Average:  Danny Jansen (.667)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (129)

Home Runs:  Rafael Devers (23)

RBI:  Rafael Devers (64)

Stolen Bases:  David Hamilton (26)

Wins:  Brayan Bello (10)

Saves:  Kenley Jansen (20)

ERA:  Garrett Whitlock (1.96)

Managers:

Seattle Mariners: Scott Servais (9th season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (4th season)