Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/30/2024

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Venue:  Fenway Park, Boston, MA

Where to Watch:  NESN

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -130, Red Sox +110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -130, Red Sox +110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -130, Red Sox +110; Over/Under:  9.5 runs

Seattle Mariners:  56-51 (2nd place, AL West)

Boston Red Sox:  55-49 (3rd place, AL East)

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Seattle Mariners:  4-6 last 10

Boston Red Sox:  3-7 last 10

The Mariners are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Chicago White Sox 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-51 record overall and have a road record of 25-28. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Tuesday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 28th in the MLB with a .668 OPS. Logan Gilbert is their starting pitcher on Monday while Luis Castillo is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 2 BB with 7 Ks on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Los Angeles Angels.

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the New York Yankees 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-49 record overall and have a home record of 25-27. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Tuesday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Monday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .760 OPS. Nick Pivetta is their starting pitcher on Monday while James Paxton is making his start in this game on Tuesday. He is 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 4 BB with 7 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5 innings played against the Boston Red Sox.

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 56-51 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AL West and now chasing down the Astros in 1st place after leading the division for most of the season. They haven't looked good in their road games this year with their 25-28 road record. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked good in their games this season with their 55-49 record overall which has them in 3rd place of the AL East and fighting for a Wild Card spot. They have been worse at home this season with their 25-27 home record though. Both of these teams have struggled lately, the Mariners being 4-6 in their last 10 games while the Red Sox are only 3-7, but the Mariners will have some momentum here form a sweep of the White Sox over the weekend while the Red Sox lost 2 of 3 at home to the Yankees. The Mariners are going to have Castillo on the mound here and he has looked good in his starts lately. He is 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA this season and the team hasn't been finding a lot of success lately, losing 2 games in a row with him starting, but he is due for a win here since he hasn't been pitching that badly. He gave up no runs in his last start and has been giving his team opportunities to win games, but their offense has let him down. The Mariners offense will be better in this one with Paxton on the mound for the Red Sox. Paxton is 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA and has looked good in his starts all year, the team winning 3 games in a row with him too, but that was when he was on the Dodgers with a much stronger offense too. This will be his 1st start for the Red Sox since getting traded and he hasn't been keeping teams off the board. He gave up 3 earned runs in his last start and has been giving up a lot more runs in the month of July. The Dodgers were finding success with Paxton, but he was giving up a lot of runs in those games still. The Red Sox have a good offense but they haven't been as good as the Dodgers and won't be able to hit Paxton out of a bad game every time. The Red Sox have also been worse at home this season so this could be a game their offense struggles in with Castillo pitching well, and the Mariners will be able to put some runs up here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game.

Mariners Red Sox Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, July 30, 2024 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Mariners 5 Red Sox 3.

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Seattle Mariners: 7-4 (+3.40 units) on the runline in their last 11 away games. 6-4 (+3.75 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 10 away games. 16-7 to the over in their last 23 away games.

Boston Red Sox: 26-27 (-7.50 units) on the moneyline in their last 53 home games. 41-54 (-20.90 units) on the runline in their last 95 games. 31-17 to the over in their last 48 games. 

Seattle Mariners:  J. Polanco (2B) Ques Mon - Knee. B. Woo (SP) Ques Mon - Hamstring. J. Crawford (SS) Out indefinitely - Finger. J. Rodriguez (RF) Out indefinitely - Leg. D. Canzone (LF) Late July - Groin. J. Farmelo (CF) out for season - Knee. S. Haggerty (2B) out for season - Achilles. M. Brash (SP) out of season - Elbow. J. Kowar (SP) out for season - Elbow.

Boston Red Sox:  J. Polanco (2B) Ques Mon - Knee. B. Woo (SP) Ques Mon - Hamstring. J. Crawford (SS) Out indefinitely - Finger. J. Rodriguez (RF) Out indefinitely - Leg. D. Canzone (LF) Late July - Groin. J. Farmelo (CF) out for season - Knee. S. Haggerty (2B) out for season - Achilles. M. Brash (SP) out of season - Elbow. J. Kowar (SP) out for season - Elbow.

“We needed to bounce back after a rough series at home against the Angels. Certainly the White Sox have been struggling throughout the year, but you still got to go out and do it and it's hard to sweep people, certainly on the road.” - Scott Servais after his team’s win against the White Sox in their game on Sunday.

"I don't think a stretch of nine games dictates who we are." - Alex Cora after his team’s loss against the Yankees in their game on Sunday.

V Robles (R) CF

R Arozarena (R) LF

C Raleigh (S) C

J Polanco (S) 2B

M Garver (R) DH

D Moore (R) 3B

M Haniger (R) RF

T Locklear (R) 1B

L Rivas (S) SS

J Duran (L) CF

R Refsnyder (R) LF

C Wong (R) C

R Devers (L) 3B

T O'Neill (R) RF

R Gonzalez (R) 1B

D Jansen (R) DH

C Rafaela (R) SS

J Westbrook (R) 2B

Batting Average:  Samad Taylor (.400)

Hits:  Julio Rodríguez (101)

Home Runs:  Cal Raleigh (22)

RBI:  Cal Raleigh (66)

Stolen Bases:  Julio Rodríguez (19)

Wins:  Luis Castillo (8)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (18)

ERA:  Yimi García (0.00)

Batting Average:  Danny Jansen (.667)

Hits:  Jarren Duran (127)

Home Runs:  Rafael Devers (23)

RBI:  Rafael Devers (64)

Stolen Bases:  David Hamilton (26)

Wins:  Brayan Bello (10)

Saves:  Kenley Jansen (20)

ERA:  Garrett Whitlock (1.96)

Managers:

Seattle Mariners: Scott Servais (9th season)

Boston Red Sox: Álex Cora (4th season)