San Jose State Spartans vs. San Diego State Aztecs Prediction & Game Preview - 2/25/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Friday, Feb 25, 2022
Time: 11 p.m. ET
Venue: Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA
Where to watch: N/A

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: San Diego State -22
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: San Diego State -22

Season record
San Jose State: 8-19 (1-14 Mountain West)
San Diego State: 17-7 (9-4 Mountain West)

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San Jose State - San Diego State preview and analysis


San Jose State analysis


I think for the sake of everybody involved in this game on Friday, we should be quick to pour one out for the San Jose State Spartans. Because it's already been a bad enough season for San Jose State this season, but add the fact that they have to go against the San Diego State Aztecs, one of the best defensive teams in the country, and try and even put up somewhat of remotely good effort just does not sound appealing to me.

But if there is anything to at least feel good about for San Jose State, it's that they're coming into this game with an actual victory on the record. The Spartans are coming off a 16 point victory against New Mexico back on February 20th which ended a God-awful long losing streak.

How bad is the bed for San Jose State as of late? Well, let me tell you. When San Jose State defeated Bethesda university on January 8th, they were 7-5 on the season. since then, San Jose State proceeded to go on a 14 game losing streak all in conference play. Yes, you read that correctly. San Jose State played 14 consecutive conference games after getting off to a decent start and lost every single one of them.

The win against New Mexico on Sunday was their first conference win of the entire season, and now the Spartans have to go against San Diego State, Air Force, and Utah State to wrap up the season. Two of them are on the road. I do not envy this program that has had to deal with so much horrible play in basketball for the last number of years but it's crazy.

Omari Moore finished with 18 points on 7 of 14 shooting, and the Spartans shot almost 53% from the field in this victory. Not to mention their defense held in Mexico to just 34.5% shooting, which seems like more than one victory needed on this occasion. It's just not a good team, and anybody who has had to follow this basketball program for the last number of years has probably had to indulge in more liquor than I think anybody could have ever anticipated.

San Diego State analysis


Well there's one thing we did correctly with San Diego State the other day, it's at least we took the under. The bad news if you are an Aztec supporter or alumni, is that they lost to the Boise State Broncos, putting any hopes of a regular-season conference championship down the drain.

After losing 58-57 to Boise State on Tuesday, the Aztecs have fallen seemingly out of favor behind the top teams in the Mountain West. Nathan Mensah had 13 points and 11 rebounds. which should normally be considered a victory any other day of the week. But how this team somehow lost this game by shooting 45% from the floor and only forcing Boise State to make 34% of its shots is truly mind-boggling.

San Diego State is exactly the team that we expect them to be. They're going to be the tough defensive team that's going to make life hell for every single opponent it faces, but the problem will always remain that someone needs to take over and win a game. There's no reason why San Diego State should lose to a team that had dressed 7 total players.

Yes, Boise State played only seven players and still won the game. None of it makes sense, and none of it ever will. It's just something that San Diego State has had to accept for the longest time, and now it is more evident than ever.

I want to believe in San Diego State just for the simple fact that I think it's a program that can actually get the job done. If anything they can get the job done on the one-sided floor that ultimately matters at the end. But somebody has got to figure out a way to score in that team because if they don't, it's going to be absolutely demoralizing once the conference tournament ends.

Prediction


That being said, don't overthink this game. San Jose State has seen the over cash and its last four games as a road underdog, and if that sort of trend plays out, that is more problematic for San Jose State then San Diego State. The Aztecs already have trouble scoring the basketball, but if they continue to face bad teams that don't know how to stop or play defense, that is going to play right into the hands of the Aztecs. Considering the over has also cashed in San Jose State last four road games, nothing seems like it's going to go right for the Spartans. Give me the Aztecs in a rout.

Betting trends


San Jose State is 30-38 ATS in the past three seasons as an underdog.

San Diego State is 38-30 ATS as a favorite.

Projected starting lineup


San Jose State:
PG: Alvaro Cardenas-Torre
SG: Omari Moore
SF: MJ Amey Jr.
PF: Trey Anderson
C: Tibet Gorener

San Diego State:
PG: LaMont Butler
SG: Trey Pulliam
SF: Matt Bradley
PF: Keshad Johnson
C: Nathan Mensah

Statistical leaders

San Jose State:
Points: Omari Moore -- 13.0
Rebounds: Omari Moore -- 5.3
Assists: Omari Moore -- 4.8

San Diego State:
Points: Matt Bradley -- 16.8
Rebounds: Nathan Mensah -- 6.9
Assists: Trey Pulliam -- 3.5

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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