Game Time: 10:00 PM ET, Saturday, November 6th, 2021

Venue: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada

Where to Watch: FS2

Kickoff Time: 10:05

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Spread: Nevada -11.5; Over/Under: 54.5 points

Circa:  Spread: Nevada -11.5; Over/Under:  55 points

VegasInsider:  Spread:  Nevada -10.5; Over/Under: 55 points

 

SJSU: 3-2 conf, 5-4 overall

Nevada: 3-1 conf, 6-2 overall

This MWC conference matchup is not out of the ordinary.  San Jose State and Nevada play each other most years, It’s how they each found legitimacy between the brutal losses to bigger Pac-12 schools.  San Jose State is this year’s underdog. It has been the other way and flip flopped year over year depending on who had a good squad (or which squads are good) in what year…  Is 10.5 pts - 11.5 pts a good spread?... no.   Let’s look at the numbers.

 

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San Jose State has lost 4 games this season.  USC Trojans 30-7, Western Michigan 23-3, the Colorado State Rams 32-14, and the San Diego State Aztecs 19-13 in overtime.  Not great teams… not great losses.

Nevada has lost 2 games this season.  Kansas State 38-17 and the Fresno State Bulldogs 34-32 (close).  Winning six is a big deal so far for the MWC.    Plus Fresno State is good, they have a nig time passing game.  That’s a GOOD close loss.

 

The Spartans offense has the #102 offense in the FBS.  They have scored 24 touchdowns on 351 ypg.  They have the 83rd ranked passing offense in the FBS, but what we know about numbers means the rushing offense is bad.  They have rushed for 12 td on 134 ypg.  San Jose State’s games are about waiting for the QB (who got switched halfway through) to hit a big pass for a big gain and it usually doesn’t come.

 

Nevada has the 25th ranked offense in the FBS.  They have scored 32 touchdowns on 456.5 yards per game.  They are actually 3rd in passing offense with 25 passing TDs and 384.1 ypg.  If you are paying attention you would see that Nevada gets more passing yards than SJSU gets total yards… this makes an 11 pt spread dumb.  They will win by 3 full scored on this number alone.

San Jose State has the 47th ranked defense in the FBS.  They have given up a short 22 tds on 353 yards per game.  They are tough on D… a lot of the toughness comes from drag out smashmouth run stoppage.  They won’t see this approach against Nevada who will airmail scores from above like a daredevil helicopter postman.

Nevada is 61st in the FBS on defense.  They have given up 25 tds on 377.2 yards per game… but then they played Fresno State to a close finish… and that is a great offense.  Nevada is better than a slightly above average FBS defense.  The Wolf Pack’s offense will stop SJSUs ground game.  They will certainly not need more on rush defense then they already have.

Our prediction for Saturday, November 6th, is… Nevada 35 - SJSU 18

San Jose State players shouldn’t feel bad about this loss… the Nevada players just have it going this season.

 

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San Jose State is 10-5 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.

San Jose State is 13-5 ATS against conference opponents the last 3 seasons.

Nevada is 5-1 as a favorite of 10.5 - 21 pts over the last three seasons.

Nevada is 9-3 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons.

San Jose State Spartans:

QB Nick Nash, RB Tyler Nevens, TE Derrick Deese, WR Charles Ross, WR Isaiah Hamilton, WR Jermaine Braddock, LT Jack Snyder, LG Trevor Robbins, C Kyle Hoppe, Rg Tyler Stevens, RT Jaime Navarro

Nevada Wolf Pack:

QB Carson Strong, RB Toa Taua, TE Cole Turner, WR Justin Lockhart, WR Romeo Doubs, WR Melquan Stovall, LT Jacob Garner, LG Jermaine Ledbetter, OC Tyler Orsini, RG Drew Cannon, RT Aaron Frost

Stat Leaders

SJSU

Passing Yards: Nick Starkel 992

Rushing Yards: Tyler Nevens 583

Receiving Yards: Derrick Deese Jr 634

Tackles: Kyle Harmon 90

Interceptions: Jay Lenard 1 (scouts tell me Jay will shut you down before he hits you real hard)

Nevada

Passing Yards: Carson Strong 2,883

Rushing Yards: Toa Taua 470

Receiving Yards: Romeo Doubs 648

Tackles: Daiyan Henley 65

Interceptions: Daiyan Henley 4 (the Nevada defense has a 1 man wrecking crew in Daiyan, pay attention)

SJSU:  Brent Brennan.  In his 5th season.

Nevada: Jay Norvell

Scattered Showers.  54* Humidity 51%, wind 14 mph.  No one has the advantage in wet weather… it will only amplify the lack of a run game for SJSU.