San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/23/2021

by James Q

San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/23/2021

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Thursday, September 23rd, 2021 
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California
Where to Watch: NBCS BA, Bally Sports San Diego, Bally Deportes San Diego

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline: Giants -105. Padres -115;  Over/Under: 8 runs 
BetMGM:  Moneyline: Giants -105. Padres -115; Over/Under: 8 runs 
PointsBet:  Moneyline: Giants -105. Padres -115; Over/Under: 8 runs

Season Record

Giants:  98-53 (1st NL West)
Padres:  76-74 (3rd NL West)

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Giants vs Padres Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Giants are 7-3 over their last ten games.  Logging 7 Overs and 3 Unders (no, they don’t align with wins and losses… that would make parlays too easy).  They went 2-0 against the Chicago Cubs, 2-2 against the San Diego Padres in a thrilling four-game series, 2-1 against the Atlanta Braves a pitching duel that saw 2 of the Unders in the three-game series, and now 1-0 against the San Diego padres to open this series.

The National League West has been torture for the Padres.  They have a good team.  They hit well, they field well, they have solid pitching… but they keep getting smacked by the reality that they are in a division with two of the league's four Super Teams.  If they were in the NL Central, or the AL West or somewhere where their level of talent could flourish they would be approaching 90 wins.  The Padres are 2-8 over their last ten games.  They have been swooning since being left in the mathematical dust.  They recorded 8 Overs and 2 Unders in the stretch. They went 0-2 against the Dodgers, 2-2 against the San Francisco Giants, got swept 0-3 by the St Louis Cardinals, then opened this matchup with the Giants 0-1.

Offensive Analysis
The Giants are an unfeeling, unblinking, winning machine.  The Los Angeles Dodgers have been right on their heels all June, July and August, resulting in what feels like a never-ending one-game lead. They can’t afford to look a game ahead lest they stumble.  They are 7th in runs scored 4.91 per game, 6th in team batting average .249, 5th in OBP .329.

The Padres are 12th in team batting average .242, 14th in runs scored 4.35 per game, 10th in OBP .322.  These numbers have dipped considerably in September.  They have lost four straight games and against the Giants that number could stretch.  The last outing against the Giants Wednesday night was close, a 6-5 finish… they don’t put you in the win column for close.

Defensive Analysis
The Giants will start Logan Webb on the mound.  Logan makes this pitching matchup look tilted in the Giants favor… but aren’t they all usually?  Logan is 10-3, 2.79 ERA, 141 SO in 132.1 IP, 1.10 WHIP.  Logan is a 24 year old ACE with a strong bullpen behind him.  

The Padres starting pitcher will be Yu Darvish 8-10, 4.13 ERA, 186 strikeouts in 157 innings of work 1.06 WHIP.  We all know Yu he’s played all over.  The 35 year old from Osaka Japan has been with the Texas Rangers, LA Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, and now the Padres.  He is getting long in the tooth but still has an impressive whip.


Giants vs Padres Prediction

Our prediction for Thursday, September 23rd is…  Giants 7 - Padres 4


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MLB Betting Trends

The Giants O/U is 32-40-4 in road games.
The Giants are 38-17 moneyline in day games.
The Padres O/U is 38-36-2 in home games.
The Padres are 22-25 moneyline in day games.

Key Injuries

Giants: J. Queto SP (elbow) Out til October. *  A. Dickerson (leg)  Out indefinitely.
Padres:  T. Wingenter RP  (Elbow) Out.   *   J. Ona RF  (elbow) Out


Players to Watch

Giants:  Brandon Belt… Brandon leads the Giants in home runs.  Dropping a lot of ball into the bay.  As the season slims down with fewer and fewer games to play, the power hitters become much more important.  A game winning home run is really a Dodger killing home run.  A 3 RBI home run will buy your bullpen some rest.  Swing away BB swing away.

Padres:  Fernando Tatis Jr.  The SS leads the Padres in home runs 39 and OPS .983.  He is the show in San Diego.  A young guy that can hit and seems to have MVPs in his future.  He can alter any game by having a good day at the plate.


Notable Quotes

“LaMonte was in battle mode,...He’s been so big in those situations. He got a ball that he was able to fight off and kept us alive and put us in a good position.”  - Giants Manager Gabe Kapler, after a win Tuesday.

Starting Lineups

T. La Stella, 2B
B. Belt, 1B
B. Posey, C
L. Wade Jr., RF
K. Bryant, LF
B. Crawford, SS
E. Longoria, 3B
M. Yastrzemski, CF

F. Tatis Jr., SS
J. Cronenworth, 1B
M. Machado, 3B
A. Frazier, 2B
T. Pham, LF
J. Profar, RF
A. Nola, C
T. Grisham, CF

Statistical Leaders

Batting Average:  Jose Quintana
Wins:  Kevin Gausman
Home Runs:  Brandon Belt
WHIP:  Curt Casell

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis JR
OPS:  Fernando Tatis JR
Wins:  Joe Musgrove 


Padres:  Jayce Tingler
Giants:  Gabe Kapler


Weather Forecast 

 Sunny, 79*  wind at 12 mph.  The perfect time of year to play or watch baseball in Southern California.  


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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