San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds and Preview - 09/21/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Tuesday, September 21, 2021
Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Giants -105, Padres -115; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  NL; Over/Under:  NL runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Giants +110, Padres -135; Over/Under: 7.5 runs

Season Record

San Francisco Giants:  97-53 (1st place, NL West)
San Diego Padres:  76-73 (3rd place, NL West)
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San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
San Francisco Giants:  7-3 last 10
San Diego Padres:  2-8 last 10

San Francisco Giants Analysis

The Giants are coming into this game after losing in their series finale on Sunday to the Atlanta Braves 3-0. They have still won 2 of their last 3 games as they won that series with the Braves from the games on Friday and Saturday. Monday will be a rest day for them so Tuesday will be the series opener between them and the Padres. Anthony DeSclafani got the nod for Sunday's game while Kevin Gausman will be the starting pitcher on the mound in this game on Tuesday. He is 14-6 with a 2.78 ERA this season and he leads the team in wins for a starting pitcher in the rotation. The team has won 2 of their last 3 games with him as the starter, he was credited with the result in each of those. In his last start, he allowed 4 ER, 1 of those being a HR, and 1 BB with 7 Ks on 8 hits through 5 IP against the San Diego Padres last Thursday. He has seen the Padres lineup 4 times this season and he is 2-1 against them while the team is 3-1 in the games he played in, there was 1 no-decision of those 4 starts. He has allowed just 1 run in each of his starts against the Padres except for his 1 start against them last week where he allowed 4. Their offense has scored 8 runs in their last 3 games averaging just under 3 runs scored per game in that span. They have also allowed their opponents to score 8 runs against them in that same span allowing just under 3 runs per game.

San Diego Padres Analysis

The Padres are coming into this game after losing their series finale on Sunday against the Cardinals 8-7. They are currently on a 3 game losing streak after getting swept by the Cardinals and have won just 2 of their last 10 games. They were swept by the LA Dodgers in that span as well while their only 2 wins came against the Giants. They will also have Monday off as a rest day so Tuesday will be the beginning of a three-game series against the Giants. Jake Arrieta was the starter for Sunday's game while Joe Musgrove will be throwing the first pitch for them in this game on Tuesday. He is 11-9 with a 2.99 ERA this season and he leads his team in wins for all of the starting pitchers in the rotation. The team has won 4 of his last 5 starts, he was credited with 3 of those wins. In his last outing, he allowed 3 ER, 2 of them being homers, and 3 BB with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6 innings of work against the Giants last Wednesday. He has seen the Giants lineup 3 times this season and he is 1-2 against them. The last time he faced them his team came away with the win but he allowed 3 or more runs in each of those 3 games not really playing at his best. The Padres’ offense has scored 11 runs in their last 3 games averaging almost 4 runs scored per game in that span. They have also allowed their opponents to score 19 runs against them in that same span allowing a little over 8 runs per game.


Giants vs Padres Prediction

Both of these teams have given themselves a chance in this game with their most winning pitchers on the bump for this one. The Padres are now 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot and they have the Philadelphia Phillies and the Cincinnati Reds ahead of them now all fighting for the 1 spot that the St. Louis Cardinals possess. The Giants are also still fighting until the finish line as they now have the Los Angeles Dodgers just 1 game behind them for the National League West division lead. Both teams will be fighting for this win but the Giants are just the better team here. The Giants have been better all year and in their recent games, as they keep winning the Padres just keep losing and at the worst time. The Padres will continue to spiral here as they are on course to miss the postseason this year. The best bet to place is on the Giants as they have been hitting Musgrove well all year and they have the advantage in every area in this game.
Giants Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Tuesday, September 21, 2021 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Giants 6 Padres 3.
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MLB Betting Trends

San Francisco Giants: 31-22 (+18.1 units) on the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher. 80-46 (+30 units) when the total is 7 to 8.5.
San Diego Padres: 65-48 (-19.4 units) on the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher. 76-73 (-30.9 units) on the money line in all games.

Key Injuries

San Francisco Giants:  J. McGee (RP) Out indefinitely - Oblique injury. A. Dickerson (LF) Out indefinitely - Leg injury. J. Quintana (RP) Out indefinitely - Personal. 
San Diego Padres:  M. Strahm (RP) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. T. Wingenter (RP) Mid Sept - Elbow injury. J. Ona (RF) Mid Sept - Elbow injury. J. Guerra (RP) out for season - Elbow injury.

Players to Watch

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford is one player to watch here. He leads his team in batting average, hits, and in RBI. The Giants still have the Dodgers chasing them for 1st place and closing the gap. Crawford will need to get some big hits here to help his team sustain that lead.
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado is one player to watch in this game. The Padres need to start winning games as they are slipping further and further away from the Wild Card spot. He leads his team in RBI so look for him to bring in some runs here and help his team to victory.

Notable Quotes

"I feel like we've been playing great baseball, and (the Dodgers) have been matching us. That's annoying." - Kris Bryant on their slim lead in the NL West.
"Looking back, maybe you'd take the out at second. He came in ready to make a play in case they were tagging there, so that's where his mindset was, to catch and go home. After the ball went on the ground, he just went with those instincts." - Jayce Tingler on a brutal error by Tatis in the game.

Starting Lineups

San Francisco Giants
D. Ruf LF
A. Slater CF
K. Bryant RF
E. Longoria 3B
B. Posey C
B. Crawford SS
W. Flores 1B
D. Solano 2B
A. DeSclafani P
San Diego Padres
F. Tatis Jr. CF
J. Cronenworth SS
M. Machado 3B
T. Pham LF
A. Nola C
E. Hosmer 1B
W. Myers RF
A. Frazier 2B
J. Arrieta P

Statistics (Stats) Leaders

San Francisco Giants
Batting Average:  B. Crawford (.299)
Hits:  B. Crawford (131)
Home Runs:  B. Belt (26)
RBI:  B. Crawford (81)
Stolen Bases:  A. Slater (15)
Wins:  K. Gausman (14)
Saves:  J. McGee (31)
ERA:  D. Leone (1.72)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average:  A. Frazier (.307)
Hits:  A. Frazier (165)
Home Runs:  F. Tatis Jr. (39)
RBI:  M. Machado (93)
Stolen Bases:  F. Tatis Jr. (25)
Wins:  J. Musgrove (11)
Saves:  M. Melancon (37)
ERA:  D. Pomeranz (1.75)
San Francisco Giants: Gabe Kapler (2nd season)
San Diego Padres: Jayce Tingler (2nd season)

Weather Forecast

75 degrees F sunny, 61% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 6 mph wind speeds SE.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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