Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Sunday, July 10th, 2022

Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, California.

Where to Watch: MLBN, MLB.tv

DraftKings: Moneyline:  Padres -110, Giants -110; O/U 7.5

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Giants: 41-41, 3rd place NL West

Padres: 49-36, 2nd place NL West

The Padres are 6 games behind the Dodgers after being virtually tied for quite a while.  The reason was the disastrous last three weeks.  In that time the Dodgers beat up on the Padres head to head… and the Padres did themselves no favors by losing to worse teams after the drubbing.  The Giants meanwhile have just hit .500.  The Giants are 41-41 on the season… after getting 107 wins last season.  The guarantee now is that there will be no 100 win Giants season this year.. Nor a 90 win season.  Heads to Head for these two clubs should favor the Padres… Yet Vegas and your books have dubbed this game (Sunday July 10th) “even”.  And they are right.  Neither of these teams have proved they are all the way good or all the way bad… Either team can have a good outing… or a dull outing.  So we have to look at the pitching matchup before we put down our $$.  

A National League West matchup between the 3rd place NL West team and the 2nd place NL West team.  To be fair it is not close in the standings.  The San Diego Padres have a 4.5 game lead over the San Francisco Giants.  However this Giants team won 107 games last season and have most of the crew still in the fold.  The Padres were neck and neck with the 1st place Dodgers as recently as last week!  Then a head to head matchup and some subsequent games have left the Padres 6 games back in the standings!  The Giants could be poised to move up… or the Padres could be poised to keep the small lead.  The matchup will be all about pitching.  Let’s look at the numbers and win a bet or two or three.

The San Francisco Giants have won only 3 of their last 10 games.  It is the chief reason that they have dropped down the NL West hole into oblivion.  The Giants hitting is mediocre… the pitching is also mediocre.  The numbers keep catching them on the wrong side of the scoreboard.  Above them in the standings the Los Angeles Dodgers are running away and the San Diego Padres are hanging around.  It would be great if the Giants could catch the Padres this summer… but the numbers say they won't.  They went 1-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 0-3 in a SWEEP by the Chicago White Sox, 1-1 against the Detroit Tigers, and 1-1 against the Cincinnati Reds.  The Giants are circling the drain… it would only take a push either way to have a good or terrible season.  The Padres may be that awful push.

The San Diego Padres have won only 2 of their last 10 games.  The disastrous stretch has allowed the Dodgers to pull away in the NL West Standings probably for good.  Still, the Padres are #2 in a good division…  If they can find some wins they can keep the dream of a postseason alive.  They went 0-2 against the Seattle Mariners, 1-3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, 1-1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 0-2 against the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Padres have an average offense and a pretty good pitching rotation.  Ultimately they need health and 1 more power hitter.  If they can find some semblance of that… they can hang… If not?... They will sink.  

 

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SF: 41-39, -1299 ML$, 40-36-4 O/U, 20-19 in road games.

SD: 47-36, 544 ML$, 37-44-2 O/U, 21-18 in home games.

 

The Giants are 4th in scoring with 4.91 runs per game, 17th in batting average with .240, and 5th in OBP with .324.  The bats are scattered throughout the line-up.

 

The Padres are 14th in runs per game with 4.45 per game, 17th in batting average with .241, 15th in OBP with .316.

 

The Giants are 15th in Team ERA with 3.94, 16th in WHIP with 1.26, and the fielders are 15th in errors with 37 on the season so far.  The pitching is what needs the big boost.  The Giants are leaving wins on the table since they are 4th in scoring… but 3rd in their division.  They should leave no rock unturned while looking for a guy who can fill a starter spot.

 

The Padres are 5th in ERA with 3.60, 5th in whip with 1.17, and 2nd in fielding errors with a low, low 32 on the season so far.

 

 

Our prediction for Sunday, July 10th is…  Padres 6 - Giants 3

 

Neither pitcher jumps off the page as the deciding factor.  The one thing that does jump off the page is that Alex Wood is having a terrible season with a horrible ERA… and his WHIP is swelling.  We don’t know if something is specifically wrong with Alex… we do know the numbers are bad and falling.  So the bet HAS TO BE against Smith.  Bet on the Padres to win the even money on the moneyline.  This isn’t a 5 star or 4 star or GOLDEN prediction.  It is simple logic that $500 - $1000 bucks on the Giants will more than likely double against Alex Wood on the mound.

 

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San Diego is 20-15 against San Francisco the last 3 seasons.

San Diego is 4-2 against San Francisco this season.

Giants: SS Brandon Crawford (knee) Out ** CF S. Duggar (oblique) Out ** LF L. Wade Jr (knee) Out 

Padres: SS Fernando Tatis Jr (wrist) Out, 1B Matt Beaty (shoulder) Out indefinitely, LF Will Meyer (knee) Out

 

Giants: LHP Alex Wood, 5-7, 5.03 ERA, 75 strikeouts in 78 innings pitched.  1.33 WHIP.  Starting Alex Wood makes the Giants instantly vulnerable to the Padres long ball abilities.

Padres: LHP MacKenzie Gore, 4-3, 3.18 ERA, 68 strikeouts in 65 innings pitched.  1.35 WHIP.  Big Mac is not necessarily a rookie sensation.  Yet for a 23 year old he is holding his own in the Bigs with lots of room for growth.  His eyebrows must be incredibly distracting to even the heartiest veteran.  

Giants: RF Luis Gonzalez, CF Mike Yastremski, 3B Evan Longoria, LF Joc Pederson, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Thairo Estrada, DH Tommy La Stella, SS Brandon Crawford, C Austin Wynns

 

Padres: LF Jurickson Purifar, 3B Manny Machado, 2B Jake Cronenworth, DH Luke Voit, 1B Eric Hosmer, RF Nomar Mazara, C Austin Nola, CF Trent Grisham, SS CJ Abrams.

 

Giants:  Gabe “yes, I do shape my eyebrows” Kapler

Padres: Bob “we are in the cusp” Melvin

 

Partly Cloudy, 72*, Humidity 75%, Wind 10 mph.