by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, May 29, 2022
Time: 11:35 a.m. ET
Venue: Great American Ballpark, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Ohio
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Giants -145, Reds +125
BetMGM: Giants -155, Reds +125
Caesars: Giants -145, Reds +125
Season record
Giants: 24-21
Reds: 16-30
This has been a weird season to this point as we get through the second month of baseball season. The last 30 days, we've seen Jim Feist rack up plenty of good wins going 48-42-4 over the last 30 days. It's been an unpredictable season so far, but our champion handicappers have been doing well all season. Get on board and join the ride. Catch Jim's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Giants - Reds preview and analysis
Well, I don't think this deserved to be on the Bingo card this week, but the Cincinnati Reds taking two of three over the San Francisco Giants in Ohio this weekend is not something I even remotely expected at this time.
But alas, we are here, and the Reds might not be as bad as we think they are, or the Giants may not be as good as we thought? One of those statements is true and the argument can be made that either one of them are fully factual. But with the Reds coming off a 3-2 victory on Saturday in which they scored all their runs in the first inning, it might be that the Giants could not capitalize off the high they got from taking out the New York Mets for two of three in San Francisco this past week.
All three runs came on a Kyle Farmer three-run home run in the bottom of the first inning, and Vladimir Gutierrez won his first game of the season with five solid innings of allowing just one run and striking out four. He did allow six hits, and the bullpen didn't make it any easier on themselves with sixth hits allowed in the final four innings. The Giants just couldn't get anything going.
“We've been working so hard this year to get some good results, and sure enough, everything that we've done in the bullpen this past week, locating pitches, using all my pitches that I know I have a lot of confidence in … they all came true today,” Gutierrez said following the game through his translator.
The Reds have gotten a lot of slander, and rightfully so, this season with their inability to actually play decent baseball. But one thing we've learned about this group over the past month or so is the ability to play above the competition. Cincinnati may not be as exciting as last season, but they've proven they can start winning games and keep it at least competitive.
“I just couldn't lose focus right there with anything that was going on in the game,” Gutierrez said. “I wasn't going to let anything else from my previous starts affect what I was going to do today. So, I just told myself, ‘Let's go, Gutierrez. We got this.’”
Joc Pederson continued his hot stretch for the Giants with another RBI, but the Giants' bats couldn't bring any runs home. San Francisco totaled 12 hits and left 21 runners on base. They just couldn't do a lot with two strikes. Darin Ruf struck out three times, and Tommy La Stella struck out twice from the leadoff spot.
This is a bad stretch for the Giants to be in, and it's very surprising that they haven't been able to capitalize off the inferior pitching. Alex Wood pitched an otherwise decent game with 5.2 innings and six strikeouts, but that homer to Farmer was just too much for the rest of his teammates to overcome.
And honestly, I'm not sure that's something that can be fixed right away.
But alas, we are here, and the Reds might not be as bad as we think they are, or the Giants may not be as good as we thought? One of those statements is true and the argument can be made that either one of them are fully factual. But with the Reds coming off a 3-2 victory on Saturday in which they scored all their runs in the first inning, it might be that the Giants could not capitalize off the high they got from taking out the New York Mets for two of three in San Francisco this past week.
All three runs came on a Kyle Farmer three-run home run in the bottom of the first inning, and Vladimir Gutierrez won his first game of the season with five solid innings of allowing just one run and striking out four. He did allow six hits, and the bullpen didn't make it any easier on themselves with sixth hits allowed in the final four innings. The Giants just couldn't get anything going.
“We've been working so hard this year to get some good results, and sure enough, everything that we've done in the bullpen this past week, locating pitches, using all my pitches that I know I have a lot of confidence in … they all came true today,” Gutierrez said following the game through his translator.
The Reds have gotten a lot of slander, and rightfully so, this season with their inability to actually play decent baseball. But one thing we've learned about this group over the past month or so is the ability to play above the competition. Cincinnati may not be as exciting as last season, but they've proven they can start winning games and keep it at least competitive.
“I just couldn't lose focus right there with anything that was going on in the game,” Gutierrez said. “I wasn't going to let anything else from my previous starts affect what I was going to do today. So, I just told myself, ‘Let's go, Gutierrez. We got this.’”
Joc Pederson continued his hot stretch for the Giants with another RBI, but the Giants' bats couldn't bring any runs home. San Francisco totaled 12 hits and left 21 runners on base. They just couldn't do a lot with two strikes. Darin Ruf struck out three times, and Tommy La Stella struck out twice from the leadoff spot.
This is a bad stretch for the Giants to be in, and it's very surprising that they haven't been able to capitalize off the inferior pitching. Alex Wood pitched an otherwise decent game with 5.2 innings and six strikeouts, but that homer to Farmer was just too much for the rest of his teammates to overcome.
And honestly, I'm not sure that's something that can be fixed right away.
Prediction
There's no way this ends in a sweep. If the Giants get swept by this Reds team, we need to have some serious discussions about where this group is just days after wining against the Mets. This is a talented team that's going through a slight transition phase, but man, this should not be an issue. Giants win 6-4
Betting trends
Giants are 23-6 the past three seasons as a road favorite between -125 and -175.
Giants are 77-56 on the road the past three seasons.
Reds are 2-13 against NL West teams this season.
Reds are 10-18 the past three seasons as a home underdog.
Projected lineup
Giants:
Darin Ruf (R) DH
Wilmer Flores (R) 1B
Mike Yastrzemski (L) RF
Evan Longoria (R) 3B
Thairo Estrada (R) 2B
Joc Pederson (L) LF
Stuart Fairchild (R) CF
Joey Bart (R) C
Donovan Walton (L) SS
Logan Webb - SP
Darin Ruf (R) DH
Wilmer Flores (R) 1B
Mike Yastrzemski (L) RF
Evan Longoria (R) 3B
Thairo Estrada (R) 2B
Joc Pederson (L) LF
Stuart Fairchild (R) CF
Joey Bart (R) C
Donovan Walton (L) SS
Logan Webb - SP
Reds:
Nick Senzel (R) CF
Brandon Drury (R) 3B
Tommy Pham (R) DH
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Aristides Aquino (R) RF
Albert Almora Jr. (R) LF
Matt Reynolds (R) 2B
Tyler Mahle -- SP
Nick Senzel (R) CF
Brandon Drury (R) 3B
Tommy Pham (R) DH
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Aristides Aquino (R) RF
Albert Almora Jr. (R) LF
Matt Reynolds (R) 2B
Tyler Mahle -- SP
Statistical leaders
Giants:
Batting average: Thairo Estrada -- .273
Hits: Thairo Estrada -- 42
Home runs: Joc Pederson -- 11
RBI: Wilmer Flores -- 25
Wins: Logan Webb -- 5
Saves: Camilo Doval -- 7
ERA: Carlos Rodon -- 3.43
Reds:
Batting average: Tyler Naquin -- .258
Hits: Tommy Phan -- 35
Home runs: Brandon Drury -- 7
RBI: Brandon Drury -- 25
Wins: Four tied -- 2
Saves: Two tied -- 2
ERA: Tyler Mahle -- 6.32
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
