by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Dec 28, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 31, 2023
Venue: FedEx Field, North Englewood, MD
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: 49ers -12.5, Commanders +12.5; Over/Under: 50 points
Bet365: Point Spread: 49ers -13, Commanders +13; Over/Under: 49.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: 49ers -13, Commanders +13; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
San Francisco 49ers: 11-4 (1st place, NFC West)
Washington Commanders: 4-11 (4th place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
San Francisco 49ers: lost their last game at home against the Baltimore Ravens 33-19.
Washington Commanders: lost their last game on the road against the New York Jets 30-28.
San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders Preview and Analysis
The 49ers are entering this game with an 11-4 record overall and they have a 5-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-2 in their home games, 6-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 33-19. Brock Purdy was the starting QB and he completed 18/32 passes for 255 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions before getting replaced by Sam Darnold who completed 8/14 passes for 81 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Christian McCaffrey led the team in rushing yards with 103 and 1 TD. George Kittle led the receivers with 126 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Tashaun Gipson Sr. led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Javon Hargrave led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Commanders are entering this game with a 4-11 record overall and they have a 0-5 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-5 in their home games, 3-6 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the New York Jets 30-28. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 6/22 passes for 56 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions before getting replaced by Jacoby Brissett who completed 10/13 passes for 100 yards and 1 TD. Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 58 and 2 TDs. Terry McLaurin led the receivers with 50 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Khaleke Hudson led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. Cody Barton came away with the only interception for them in that game.
49ers vs Commanders Prediction
The current betting odds have the 49ers listed as a 12.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The 49ers have looked really good in their games this season with their 11-4 record overall. They just lost a big game against the Ravens last week as that was a battle between 2 of the best teams in the NFL which the Ravens came away with, but the 49ers will be looking to bounce back now after losing at home in that game. They were embarrassed in that game as they lost at home by double digits, but they have still been rolling every bad team they face and that is exactly what they are getting here with the Commanders. The Commanders have looked terrible in their games this season with their 4-11 record overall and they have already been eliminated from playoff contention so they have nothing to play for here either. They just lost to the Jets last week and are now on the road for a 2nd straight week, but this time they are against one of the best teams in the NFL who will be angry and looking to take out their frustrations in this game. The season is over for the Commanders while the season is just getting started for the 49ers with playoffs around the corner and they are going to use this home game against a bad team as a get right spot to get back on track. The best way to place a bet here is on the 49ers to cover the spread in this game.
49ers Commanders Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 31, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is 49ers 42 Commanders 10.
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NFL Betting Trends
San Francisco 49ers: 33-21 ATS in all games. 27-18 ATS as a favorite. 7-1 ATS against NFC East division opponents. 13-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 9-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 9-3 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite.
Washington Commanders: 7-14 ATS in home games. 5-12 ATS after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 10-4 UNDER as a home underdog. 15-8 UNDER in home games. 8-4 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.
Key Injuries
San Francisco 49ers: D. Samuel (WR) Ques Sun - Neck. E. Mitchell (RB) Prob Sun - Knee. A. Armstead (DL) Ques Sun - Foot. R. Dwelley (TE) Ques Sun - Ankle. O. Burks (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Jennings (WR) Ques Sun - Concussion. B. Purdy (QB) Ques Sun - Stinger. J. Moore (OL) Ques Sun - Head. T. Williams (OT) Ques Sun - Groin. K. Davis (DL) Out indefinitely - Ankle. R. McCloud III (WR) Out indefinitely - Ribs. G. Odum (S) I-R - Bicep. T. Hufanga (S) I-R - Knee. N. Zakelj (OL) I-R - Bicep. D. Jackson (DL) Out indefinitely - Knee. D. Gray (WR) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. C. Latu (TE) I-R - Knee.
Washington Commanders: C. Rodriguez Jr. (RB) I-R - Ankle. D. Mayo (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. J. Ridgeway (DT) Ques Sun - Foot. D. Harris (LB) Ques Sun - Quadricep. B. Robinson (RB) Ques Sun - Hamstring. C. Leno Jr. (OT) Ques Sun - Calf. T. Larsen (C) Ques Sun - Knee. P. Butler (S) Ques Sun - Wrist. B. St-Juste (CB) Ques Sun - Concussion. A. Wylie (G) Ques Sun - Elbow. C. Hodges (TE) I-R - Back. J. Davis (LB) I-R - Shoulder. E. Obada (DE) Out indefinitely - Leg. R. Stromberg (C) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Reaves (S) I-R - Knee. D. Forrest (S) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“I didn’t mind his demeanor. He stayed in there and kept battling. Our whole team struggled there in the second half, so it wasn’t just him.” - Kyle Shanahan on Brock Purdy after his team’s loss against the Ravens in their last game.
“We didn’t help him early. We dropped a couple of balls that we probably should have caught. Your confidence sometimes can get shaken. That’s what I started to feel in the second half and I was really concerned. That’s why I made the decision that I did.” - Ron Rivera on Sam Howell after his team’s loss against the Jets in their last game.
Starting Lineups
San Francisco 49ers
WR Aiyuk, Brandon
WR Samuel, Deebo
WR Jennings, Jauan
TE Kittle, George
QB Purdy, Brock
RB McCaffrey, Christian
FB Juszczyk, Kyle
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Samuel, Curtis
TE Thomas, Logan
QB Brissett, Jacoby
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
FB Armah, Alex
Statistical Leaders
San Francisco 49ers
Passing: B. Purdy (4050)
Rushing: C. McCaffrey (1395)
Receiving: B. Aiyuk (1203)
Touchdowns: C. McCaffrey (21)
Washington Commanders
Passing: S. Howell (3624)
Rushing: B. Robinson (664)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (885)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (8)
Coaches:
San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Shanahan (7th season)
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
