San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles: NFC Championship Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 1/29/2023

NFC Championship Game

Time: 3 p.m. ET

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA

Where to watch: FOX

DraftKings: Eagles -2.5; PHI -140, SF +120; O/U 45.5

FanDuel: Eagles -2.5;PHI -146, SF +124; O/U 45.5

BetMGM: Eagles -2.5; PHI -150, SF +125; O/U 45.5

Caesars: Eagles -2.5; PHI -145, SF +122; O/U 45.5

49ers: 13-4 (No. 2 seed)

Eagles: 14-3 (No. 1 seed)

49ers - Eagles preview, analysis and prediction

49ers: won 19-12 vs. Cowboys in Divisional Round

Eagles: won 38-7 vs. Giants in Divisional Round

The NFC Championship game, in all its glory, is the perfect battle. The best defense in football against the offense that hasn’t faced a strong test all season. That’s what we have with the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday afternoon with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line.

 

It was a tale of two games this weekend. The Eagles dominated from the get-go against the fraudulent New York Giants, and the 49ers stifled the fraud that is Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys with that defense. All of that has set the stage for Brock Purdy against Jalen Hurts, that Philadelphia passing game against that San Francisco pass rush.

 

We’ll start with the 49ers, who showed that defense has been incredible all season long. The 49ers picked off Prescott twice, while Purdy didn’t turn it over once, winning 19-12 and advancing to another NFC title game. Purdy went 19 of 29 for 214 yards, the 49ers were held to 3.5 yards per carry on the ground, and San Francisco didn’t get to the endzone via the air.

 

Instead, it was George Kittle making big plays when needed, catching five passes for 95 yards, including the greatest bobbling catch we’ve ever seen. It was the defense that held Prescott to 23 of 37 for 206 yards, held the Cowboys running game to 76 yards on 22 carries, and held that high-scoring offense to 12 points. If not for the Cowboys’ defense coming to play, it would’ve been a horrendous showing and maybe 39-12 instead of that.

 

“Man, we’re just excited that we won,” said Purdy, the 49ers' unbeaten rookie quarterback. “Everyone did their part. It’s playoff football, it’s never easy, but we’re moving on.”

 

It was definitely not the easiest game the 49ers have played since Purdy took over as starting quarterback for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, but the 49ers once again relied on their defense and timely playmaking in order. Since Purdy took over as the starting quarterback, including the win against Miami that he replaced Garoppolo in, the 49ers have won eight in a row and have gone 7-1 against the spread. The only hiccup was that near loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, but even then the defense saved the day.

 

But the fact that Purdy has come in and played well is the real amazing thing. He’s not doing anything crazy, he’s still putting up tremendous numbers, and isn’t turning the ball over.

 

“I’m not shocked anymore,” McCaffrey said. “It’s just who he is now.”

 

But can he do it against the potential MVP and another strong defense staring him in the face? That’s going to be the key, going into Philadelphia and knocking off the best team in the league all year long, no matter how fraudulent I believe them to be.

 

The Eagles are coming off a 38-7 win over the Giants in their divisional round matchup. Hurts didn’t have to do much on this night. He completed just 16 of 24 passes for 154 yards and two touchdowns to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, and the running game ran for three touchdowns and 268 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per touch. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia defense held Daniel Jones to just 135 yards and a pick, and Saquon Barkley had only 11 total touches.

 

But having Hurts back really helped the pace of the offense.

 

“To have him out there, I know this is high praise, it's like having Michael Jordan out there,” coach Nick Sirianni said. “He's your leader. He's your guy. That's the biggest respect I can pay to him.”

 

The Eagles failed to cover in their previous four before covering the -8 against the Giants, so the spread isn’t much of a play anymore. But they’re going into this game favored by 2.5 and I don’t expect the money to change so much that the line changes. Maybe slightly toward San Francisco as the week goes on, but expect Philly to be the favorites via homefield advantage.

 

For all the talk about the differences between Purdy and Garoppolo, this is one of them: If this version of Purdy showed up against Kansas City two years ago and the Rams last year, we might be talking a potential 3-peat. That’s how much stock I’m buying for Purdy and his game management to go into Philadelphia and get back to the Big Game. Buckle up. 49ers 27, Eagles 24

Betting trends

49ers are 18-8 ATS after a win the last 2 seasons.

49ers are 32-23 ATS in all games the last 3 seasons.

49ers are 8-2 ATS after covering in 6 or 7 of the last 8 the last 3 seasons.

Eagles are 16-31 ATS at home where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1992.