by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024
Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Sunday, February 11, 2024
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: 49ers -1.5, Chiefs +1.5; Over/Under: 47 points
Bet365: Point Spread: 49ers -1.5, Chiefs +1.5; Over/Under: 47 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: 49ers -1.5, Chiefs +1.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
San Francisco 49ers: 12-5 (1st place, NFC West)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-6 (1st place, AFC West)
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Recent Form
San Francisco 49ers: won their last game at home against the Detroit Lions 34-31.
Kansas City Chiefs: won their last game on the road against the Baltimore Ravens 17-10.
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Analysis
The 49ers are entering this game with a 12-5 record overall and they have a 5-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 7-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this Super Bowl game. They won their last game against the Detroit Lions 34-31 in the NFC Championship Round of the NFL playoffs. Brock Purdy was the starting QB and he completed 20/31 passes for 267 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Christian McCaffrey led the team in rushing yards with 90 and 2 TDs. Deebo Samuel led the receivers with 89 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Fred Warner led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Nick Bosa led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Chiefs are entering this game with an 11-6 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-4 in their home games, 6-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this Super Bowl game. They won their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship Round of the NFL playoffs. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 30/39 passes for 241 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing yards with 68 and 1 TD. Travis Kelce led the receivers with 116 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 1 TD. Drue Tranquill led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while George Karlaftis, Justin Reid, Tershawn Wharton, and Charles Omenihu each led the defense in sacks with 1. Deon Bush came away with the only interception for them in that game.
49ers vs Chiefs Prediction
The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs have looked great in their games this season with their 11-6 record overall which won the AFC West and they have looked really impressive in the playoffs too. The Chiefs started their 1st playoff game at home but then had to go on the road and play in what was Patrick Mahomes' first 2 road playoff games of his career. Not only did they pull off the upset win in Buffalo, but they also went into Baltimore last week and beat the number 1 seed in the AFC as underdogs in both games. Meanwhile, the 49ers have also looked great in their games this season with their 12-5 record overall which won the NFC West and was also the number 1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers looked like one of the best teams in the NFL all season with the way they were blowing teams out week after week, but they haven't had the same luck in the playoffs. In both of their playoff games this season they were down early and had to play from behind despite being at home in both games. Now they are a slight favorite in this game on a neutral site when Mahomes and the Chiefs have done nothing but prove the defending Super Bowl champions should not be disrespected as an underdog. The 49ers have a really good team but they looked a lot more shaky in their 2 playoff games compared to the way the Chiefs played in their 3 games. The value here is with Mahomes and the Chiefs as an underdog in the playoffs yet again. The best way to place a bet here is on the 49ers to cover the spread in this game.
49ers Chiefs Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, February 11, 2024 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 27 49ers 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
San Francisco 49ers: 12-20 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. 16-22 ATS against AFC West division opponents. 11-5 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 11-4 UNDER after 2 straight wins by 6 or less points. 6-3 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game.
Kansas City Chiefs: 13-5 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 26-10 ATS against NFC West division opponents. 12-5 ATS off 2 consecutive road wins. 14-6 UNDER in all games. 6-1 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 12-7 UNDER off a road win.
Key Injuries
San Francisco 49ers: K. Davis (DL) Ques Feb 11 - Ankle. C. Ferrell (DL) I-R - Knee. D. Gray (WR) I-R - Shoulder. R. Dwelley (TE) I-R - Ankle. T. Hufanga (S) I-R - Knee. N. Zakelj (OL) I-R - Bicep. D. Jackson (DL) Out indefinitely - Knee. C. Latu (TE) I-R - Knee.
Kansas City Chiefs: C. Omenihu (DE) out for season - Knee. P. Wanogho (OT) Ques Feb 11 - Quadricep. S. Moore (WR) Ques Feb 11 - Knee. W. Gay (LB) Ques Feb 11 - Neck. J. Thuney (G) Ques Feb 11 - Pectoral. K. Toney (WR) Out indefinitely - Hip. D. Nnadi (DT) I-R - Tricep. C. Jones (LB) I-R - Chest. N. Remigio (WR) Out indefinitely - Foot. J. McKinnon (RB) Out indefinitely - Groin. B. Cook (S) Out indefinitely - Ankle. B. Thompson (DE) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Fortson (TE) I-R - Shoulder. N. Johnson (S) I-R - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“We’re not going out like this. Guys didn't want today to be the last day. We put ourselves in a hole. They played like it in the second half and we were able to get the ball to bounce the right way and we made up for what we did in the first half.” - Kyle Shanahan after his team’s win against the Lions in their last game.
“I've never doubted, no. That's not how we roll.” - Andy Reid after his team’s win against the Ravens in their last game.
Starting Lineups
San Francisco 49ers
WR Aiyuk, Brandon
WR Samuel, Deebo
WR Jennings, Jauan
TE Kittle, George
QB Purdy, Brock
RB McCaffrey, Christian
FB Juszczyk, Kyle
Kansas City Chiefs
WR Watson, Justin
WR Valdes-Scantling, Marquez
WR Rice, Rashee
TE Kelce, Travis
QB Mahomes, Patrick
RB Pacheco, Isiah
Statistical Leaders
San Francisco 49ers
Passing: B. Purdy (4280)
Rushing: C. McCaffrey (1459)
Receiving: B. Aiyuk (1342)
Touchdowns: C. McCaffrey (21)
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing: P. Mahomes (4183)
Rushing: I. Pacheco (935)
Receiving: T. Kelce (984)
Touchdowns: I. Pacheco (9)
Coaches:
San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Shanahan (7th season)
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (11th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
