by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 10, 2023
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 15, 2023
Venue: Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: 49ers -5, Browns +5; Over/Under: 38.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: 49ers -5, Browns +5; Over/Under: 38 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: 49ers -5.5, Browns +5.5; Over/Under: 38.5 points
Season Record
San Francisco 49ers: 5-0 (1st place, NFC West)
Cleveland Browns: 2-2 (3rd place, AFC North)
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Recent Form
San Francisco 49ers: won their last game at home against the Dallas Cowboys 42-10.
Cleveland Browns: lost their last game at home against the Baltimore Ravens 28-3.
San Francisco 49ers vs Cleveland Browns Preview and Analysis
The 49ers are entering this game with a 5-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Dallas Cowboys 42-10. Brock Purdy was the starting QB and he completed 17/24 passes for 252 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jordan Mason led the team in rushing yards with 69 and 1 TD. George Kittle led the receivers with 67 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 3 TDs. Fred Warner led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, and Kevin Givens each led the defense in sacks with 1. Fred Warner, Oren Burks, and Tashaun Gipson Sr. each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
The Browns are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 28-3. Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the starting QB and he completed 19/36 passes for 121 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Pierre Strong Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 49. David Njoku led the receivers with 46 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Myles Garrett each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
49ers vs Browns Prediction
The current betting odds have the 49ers listed as a 5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The 49ers just smoked the Cowboys in prime time on Sunday night and they are now just 1 of 2 undefeated teams left in the NFL. The Browns are only 2-2 and they will be at home for this game coming off their bye too but even with Watson back under center, the Browns don't have the talent to stop this 49ers offense. The Browns are really good at stopping the run but the 49ers have so many creative ways to run the ball along with a lot of weapons in their receiving corps that can attack this Browns defense in many different ways. The 49ers also have one of the best defenses in the NFL that hasn't been giving up many points in their games and now that the Cleveland run game has taken a hit with the loss of Chubb, they are going to be a really 1-dimensional team here. The 49ers are going to continue to roll here as the Browns are not a team that can challenge them right now. The best way to place a bet here is on the 49ers to cover the spread in this game.
49ers Browns Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 15, 2023 (1:00 pm ET start time) is 49ers 27 Browns 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
San Francisco 49ers: 29-15 ATS in all games. 23-12 ATS as a favorite. 10-3 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more. 9-4 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 14-8 UNDER in road games. 21-14 UNDER against AFC North division opponents.
Cleveland Browns: 7-13 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders. 2-7 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game. 7-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 8-2 UNDER in non-conference games. 16-3 UNDER off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more.
Key Injuries
San Francisco 49ers: E. Mitchell (RB) day-to-day - Knee. S. Womack III (CB) Out indefinitely - Knee. R. Beal Jr. (DL) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. D. Gray (WR) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Luter Jr. (CB) Out indefinitely - Knee. C. Latu (TE) I-R - Knee.
Cleveland Browns: S. Ika (DT) Ques Sun - Foot. D. Watson (QB) Prob Sun - Shoulder. N. Chubb (RB) I-R - Knee. J. Conklin (OT) I-R - Knee. J. Kunaszyk (LB) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Woods II (WR) Out indefinitely - Achilles. D. Forbes (G) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Grant Sr. (WR) I-R - Knee. J. Phillips (LB) I-R - Pectoral. D. Deaton (G) I-R - Knee. T. Graham Jr. (CB) I-R - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“I knew it was our biggest game so far this year as far as nationally and just media wise and the hype. Sometimes you worry your team can get too up for stuff. ... They were so locked in all week. They didn’t make too big a deal of this game and were ready to go.” - Kyle Shanahan after his team’s win against the Cowboys in their last game.
“He wanted to go badly, but he just did not feel that he could go. He pushed himself. He tried. He did everything in his power to get ready, but just did not feel comfortable earlier this morning and didn’t feel like we could put him out there.” - Kevin Stefanski on the injury to Deshaun Watson after his team’s loss against the Ravens in their last game.
Starting Lineups
San Francisco 49ers
WR Aiyuk, Brandon
WR Samuel, Deebo
WR Jennings, Jauan
TE Kittle, George
QB Purdy, Brock
RB McCaffrey, Christian
FB JUSZCZYK, KYLE
Cleveland Browns
WR Cooper, Amari
WR Peoples-Jones, Donovan
WR Moore, Elijah
TE Njoku, David
QB Watson, Deshaun
RB Ford, Jerome
Statistical Leaders
San Francisco 49ers
Passing: B. Purdy (1271)
Rushing: C. McCaffrey (510)
Receiving: B. Aiyuk (378)
Touchdowns: C. McCaffrey (8)
Cleveland Browns
Passing: D. Watson (678)
Rushing: J. Ford (186)
Receiving: A. Cooper (259)
Touchdowns: J. Ford (3)
Coaches:
San Francisco 49ers: Kyle Shanahan (7th season)
Cleveland Browns: Kevin Stefanski (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
