San Diego State Aztecs vs UTSA Roadrunners Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/21/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Wednesday, Dec 08, 2021
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Tuesday, December 21, 2021
Venue:  Toyota Stadium, Frisco, TX
Where to Watch:  ESPN

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SDSU -2.5, UTSA +2.5; Over/Under:  49.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  SDSU -2.5, UTSA +2.5; Over/Under:  50 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SDSU -2.5, UTSA +2.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points
 

Season Record

San Diego State Aztecs:  11-2 (1st place, MW West)
UTSA Roadrunners:  12-1 (1st place, C-USA West)
 
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San Diego State Aztecs vs UTSA Roadrunners Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
San Diego State Aztecs:  lost at home on Dec. 4 against the Utah State Aggies 46-13.
UTSA Roadrunners:  won at home on Dec. 3 against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 49-41.
 
 
 

San Diego State Aztecs Analysis

SDSU is coming into this game after finishing their season off with an 11-2 record overall and they will be playing their first neutral site game of the season in this one. They made it to the Mountain West Conference Championship game but lost to the Utah State Aggies 46-13. They have won 4 of their last 5 games with wins coming against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, the Nevada Wolf Pack, the UNLV Rebels, and the Boise State Broncos while their loss came against USU in their last game in the title match. Jordon Brookshire completed 11/23 passes for 117 yards while Jalen Mayden completed 5/6 passes for 50 yards and 1 touchdown. Greg Bell led the team in rushing with 50 yards on 11 carries. Jesse Matthews led the receivers with 82 yards and 1 touchdown on 8 receptions. CJ Baskerville led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Jonah Tavai and Keshawn Banks both recorded the only sacks for them in that game with 1 each while Patrick McMorris was the only player to come up with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 345 points in their 13 games this season averaging 26.5 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 253 points against them allowing 19.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 333.7 YPG while their defense is allowing 319.7 YPG.
 
 

UTSA Roadrunners Analysis

UTSA is coming into this game after finishing their season with a 12-1 record overall and they will be playing their first neutral site game this season in this game. They only had 1 loss all season and are coming into this one off of a win in their last game after losing to the North Texas Mean Green in their game prior to that one but they won the Conference USA Championship game in their last one 49-41 against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Frank Harris completed 19/28 passes for 218 yards and 2 touchdowns in that one. Sincere McCormick had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 204 yards and 3 touchdowns on 36 carries while Harris and Brenden Brady each ran in 1 TD as well in that one. Zakhari Franklin led the receivers with 67 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while De'Corian Clark was right behind with 59 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions. Rashad Wisdom led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Clarence Hicks led the defense in sacks in that game with 2 while Jahmal Sam and Antonio Parks both came up with 1 interception each for them in that one. They have scored 492 points in their 13 games this season averaging 37.9 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 307 points against them allowing 23.6 PPG. Their offense is averaging 443.2 YPG while their defense is allowing 363.5 YPG.
 

 

San Diego State vs UTSA Prediction

UTSA is coming into this Miami Beach Bowl as a 2.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. They were also an underdog by the same amount in the conference title game and they came out of that one as the conference champions. They have been playing very well all season and they would be an undefeated team if they were not looking ahead to that title game and lost to North Texas. SDSU has played well this season but their strength is with their defense and they really struggled in their title game as they went on to lose to a USU team that was able to score over 40 points on them. SDSU is not built to come back from a large deficit so if they fall behind to a team like this with a very strong offense then they are going to have no chance to win. UTSA has a very potent offense and will find ways to score a lot of points in this game, SDSU will not be able to match on offense. The best bet to place in this game is on UTSA to cover the spread here and on them to win this game straight up on the moneyline. 
 
San Diego State UTSA Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Tuesday, December 21, 2021 (7:30 pm ET start time) is UTSA 45 SDSU 21.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today.  And if you enjoyed this San Diego State Aztecs UTSA Roadrunners prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
 

NCAAF Betting Trends

 
San Diego State Aztecs: 4-7 O/U in a bowl game. 15-31 O/U when the line is +3 to -3. 107-157 O/U in all games. 29-61 O/U when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 5-16 O/U after playing a conference game. 80-122 O/U in games played on a grass field. 25-51 O/U after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. 0-13 O/U off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. 8-24 O/U off an upset loss as a favorite. 46-80 O/U after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
UTSA Roadrunners: 6-13 O/U when the line is +3 to -3. 19-30 O/U as a favorite. 1-5 O/U against Mountain West conference opponents. 1-6 O/U off 3 or more consecutive overs. 9-16 O/U after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. 6-13 O/U off a home win against a conference rival. 14-22 O/U off a win against a conference rival. 6-11 O/U off an upset win as an underdog. 0-8 O/U after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. 3-12 O/U after playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.
 

Key Injuries

 
San Diego State Aztecs:  T. Shavers (WR) Ques Dec 21 - Undisclosed injury. W. Haskell (QB) Ques Dec 21 - Undisclosed injury. L. Johnson (QB) Ques Dec 21 - Knee injury. J. Rudolph (TE) Ques Dec 21 - Undisclosed injury. A. Greene (TE) Ques Dec 21 - Undisclosed injury. D. Bellinger (TE) Ques Dec 21 - Undisclosed injury.
UTSA Roadrunners:  None.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"We didn't accomplish the goals we always set. There's a lot of football teams that would like to be 11-2. We'd like to be 12-1." - Brady Hoke on his team’s loss against USU in the title game.
 
 
"My fellas never disappoint. They didn't disappoint tonight. We're the champs. It's freaking awesome." - Jeff Traylor on his team’s win against WKU in the title game.
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
San Diego State Aztecs
WR Shavers, Tyrell 
WR Jesse Matthews 
WR Busbee, BJ 
TE Daniel Bellinger
TE Rudolph, Jay 
QB Johnson, Lucas 
RB Bell, Greg 
RB Byrd, Jordan 
 
UTSA Roadrunners
WR De'Corian Clark
WR Zakhari Franklin 
WR Joshua Cephus
TE Watson, Leroy 
QB Harris, Frank 
RB McCormick, Sincere 
 

Statistical Leaders

 
San Diego State Aztecs
Passing: L. Johnson (1091)
Rushing: G. Bell (997)
Receiving: J. Matthews (482)
Touchdowns: G. Bell (8)
 
UTSA Roadrunners
Passing: F. Harris (2906)
Rushing: S. McCormick (1479)
Receiving: Z. Franklin (938)
Touchdowns: S. McCormick (15)
 
Coaches:
San Diego State Aztecs: Brady Hoke (2nd season)
UTSA Roadrunners: Jeff Traylor (2nd season)


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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