by James Q
Monday, Nov 15, 2021San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Rebels Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 11/19/2021
Game Time: 11:30 PM ET, Friday, November, 19th, 2021
Venue: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Where to Watch: CBSSN (CBS Sports Network)
Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Spread: SDSU -11; Over/Under: 41 points
Circa: Spread: SDSU -11; Over/Under: 41 points
Caesars: Spread: SDSU -11; Over/Under: 41 points
Season Record
San Diego State: 5-1 conference record, 9-1 overall (MWC)
UNLV: 2-4 conf, 2-8 overall (Mountain West Conference)
San Diego State has only lost 1 game this season and it was to Fresno State. Since that game they are on a 2-game winning streak, knocking off Hawaii and Nevada. They have earned themselves a #23 ranking in college football. Strength of schedule is a big deal to the committee that picks the top teams and the Mountain West Conference isn’t highly respected… even though 9-1 in the MWC is probably more even than 9-1 in the SEC when SEC teams play the first 4 games of the season against total nobodies to pad the stats.
UNLV’s games have been a tragedy in motion. They are underdogs in this matchup for a good reason. The latest spread of -11 is probably not big enough… but more on that later. UNLV’s last game was a win over Hawaii, but everyone has beaten Hawaii this season. SDSU is 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games in Nevada-Las Vegas.
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San Diego State vs UNLV Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
SDSU is 9-1 on the season, but 5-4 ATS. They have logged 4 Overs and 6 Unders. They are a perfect 4-0 in road games.
UNLV has a pathetic 2-8 record, but a shiny 7-3 ATS. They have notched 5 Overs and 5 Unders. They are a lousy 1-4 at home. The ATs record is good but it is against BIG spreads all season long. San Diego State is the cream of the MWC for a reason.
Offensive Analysis
The SDSU offense is 69th in points with 27.7 per game, 112th in average total yards with 332.3 per game, and 124th in passing yards with 140.8 per. The top line stat.
UNLV stats are not very impressive. They are 114th in points, 119th in yards, and 104th in passing yards…. And 105th in rushing yards. They simply don't have a strength. Their offense is as likely to get turnovers as touchdowns, interceptions as receptions… etc.
Defensive Analysis
San Diego State Aztecs vs UNLV Rebels Prediction
Our prediction for Friday, November 19th is…. SDSU 38 - UNLV 13
SDSU and the Over. Parlay it… both should hit. Of course you may be relying on UNLV to actually hit a FG or two against the San Diego State Defense… but they should be nice and relaxed by the second half.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
SDSU is 4-1 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SDSU is 4-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
UNLV is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
UNLV is 4-2 ATS versus conference opponents this season.
Statistical Leaders
SDSU
Passing Yards: Lucas Johnson 801
Rushing Yards: Greg Bell 847
Sacks: Cameron Thomas 8.5
Interceptions: Trenton Thompson 3
UNLV
Passing Yards: Cameron Friel 1541
Rushing Yards: Charles Williams: 1084
Sacks: Brennan Scott 4
Interceptions: Phillip Hill 3
COACHES
SDSU: Brady Hoke. He is in his second stint with SDSU… In the middle he coached the University of Michigan, and then stopped for some defensive coaching with the NFL’s Carolina Panthers.
UNLV: Marcus Arroyo. He will be building this program for awhile if he is given time. He has a 2-14 record at UNLV so far.
James Q
About the Author:
James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.
