by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Sep 26, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Boise State -5.5
FanDuel: Boise State -5.5
BetMGM: Boise State -5.5
Caesars: Boise State -5.5
Season record
San Diego State: 2-2
Boise State: 2-2
What a big week and some fun shake up in the top 25, as we enter Week 5 of the college football campaign. And what a week it was for our own Wayne Root with a 7-1-0 stint to continue what has been a strong start for our champion handicappers through the early stages of this college football season. But now things are going to get interesting with conference play underway and some big-time matchups in the coming weeks. You're going to want to follow our top-notch handicappers if you want to get on this action. Make sure you visit our Best Bets page to find out more.
San Diego State - Boise State preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
San Diego State: won 17-14 vs. Toledo
Boise State: lost 27-10 at UTEP
This year has not gone the way the San Diego State Aztecs hoped. I think – and I could be wrong – but I think the Aztecs went about this season thinking they would completely run over the Mountain West Conference and win a championship and play in a bowl game. You would think that after this team has been a standard bearer for the longest time, but alas, I don’t believe anyone thought that this team would get out to such a horrid 2-2 start and live to tell the tale.
Here’s where we’re at with San Diego State: We know they’re not going to score, and we know they need to rely on its defense to win games. Through this 2-2 start, we’ve understood such things make sense. When they win, the defense is good. They can hold Toledo to 14 points in a win, and hold Idaho State to just 7 and win. But when they lose, the defense is bad and the offense doesn’t have enough to carry them. Look at the 35-7 loss to Utah (no shame in losing to the Utes) and 38-20 to … Arizona? Yeah, I still can’t get over that one to save my life.
But the Aztecs did escape with a 17-14 win over Toledo on Saturday. Because any time your quarterback, Braxton Burmeister, can go 13 of 24 for 65 yards and an interception – and still win – we’re not sure if that says more about Toledo’s ineptitude or it just shows how much the defense has to bail out this bad offense.
Jordan Byrd did run for 115 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries, so at least the tradition of having a decent running game is alive and well. But the fact it took a Byrd touchdown run with 41 seconds left to pull out the win is a huge concern for San Diego State and it’s why they shouldn’t be trusted under any circumstances.
This year has not gone the way the San Diego State Aztecs hoped. I think – and I could be wrong – but I think the Aztecs went about this season thinking they would completely run over the Mountain West Conference and win a championship and play in a bowl game. You would think that after this team has been a standard bearer for the longest time, but alas, I don’t believe anyone thought that this team would get out to such a horrid 2-2 start and live to tell the tale.
Here’s where we’re at with San Diego State: We know they’re not going to score, and we know they need to rely on its defense to win games. Through this 2-2 start, we’ve understood such things make sense. When they win, the defense is good. They can hold Toledo to 14 points in a win, and hold Idaho State to just 7 and win. But when they lose, the defense is bad and the offense doesn’t have enough to carry them. Look at the 35-7 loss to Utah (no shame in losing to the Utes) and 38-20 to … Arizona? Yeah, I still can’t get over that one to save my life.
But the Aztecs did escape with a 17-14 win over Toledo on Saturday. Because any time your quarterback, Braxton Burmeister, can go 13 of 24 for 65 yards and an interception – and still win – we’re not sure if that says more about Toledo’s ineptitude or it just shows how much the defense has to bail out this bad offense.
Jordan Byrd did run for 115 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries, so at least the tradition of having a decent running game is alive and well. But the fact it took a Byrd touchdown run with 41 seconds left to pull out the win is a huge concern for San Diego State and it’s why they shouldn’t be trusted under any circumstances.
Meanwhile, it’s a ho-hum 2-2 start as well for the Boise State Broncos, the ones that used to run this conference with an iron fist. It’s going to be interesting to watch Boise State, knowing that the Mountain West is wide open again and the Broncos have as good of a chance as anyone to win it. But hopefully, for Boise State’s sake, that they’ve figured out how to lose and can rectify the situation next week.
Boise State lost 27-10 to UTEP on the road. Again, no shame for losing to a team on the road last week, but in all honesty, the Broncos can’t afford to slip up after getting humbled by Oregon State back in Week 1. Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier was absolutely horrendous going 13 of 34 for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos offense did not show up to the tune of just 177 total yards. It was an all-around horrific performance by a team that used to win many games by this very logic.
As it turns out, right now, the logic is horrendous that they can’t win games to save their lives. And if anything, it shows us that if Boise State has to play an important game soon, who knows if they’ll for sure show up.
Boise State lost 27-10 to UTEP on the road. Again, no shame for losing to a team on the road last week, but in all honesty, the Broncos can’t afford to slip up after getting humbled by Oregon State back in Week 1. Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier was absolutely horrendous going 13 of 34 for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos offense did not show up to the tune of just 177 total yards. It was an all-around horrific performance by a team that used to win many games by this very logic.
As it turns out, right now, the logic is horrendous that they can’t win games to save their lives. And if anything, it shows us that if Boise State has to play an important game soon, who knows if they’ll for sure show up.
Prediction
Nothing more I can say other than San Diego State is hot garbage and that defense can only hang on for so long. Boise State’s offense may not be any better, but given that they’re at home and they’re not as bad as San Diego State, this feels like one where the Broncos are the right play, especially when 5.5 is a good number to take before it goes higher. Boise State by 17
Betting trends
San Diego State is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a road underdog.
San Diego State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following non-conference games.
The under is 81-43 in San Diego State's road games since 1992.
Boise State is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 home games.
Boise State is 7-10 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite.
Statistical leaders
San Diego State:
Passing: Braxton Burmeister -- 230 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Jordan Byrd -- 224 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Jesse Matthews -- 68 yards
Boise State:
Passing: Hank Bachmeier -- 497 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: George Holani -- 261 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Latrell Caples -- 125 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
