San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 2/28/2023

Time: 9 p.m. ET

Venue: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID

Where to watch: CBS Sports Network

DraftKings: Boise State -2

FanDuel: Boise State -1.5

BetMGM: Boise State -1.5

Caesars: Boise State -2

No. 18 San Diego State: 23-5 (14-2 Mountain West)

Boise State: 22-7 (12-4 Mountain West)

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Any last-minute chance of the Boise State Broncos securing at least a share of the Mountain West Conference regular season championship hinders on not just beating the San Diego State Aztecs on Tuesday, but another loss for SDSU against Wyoming later in the week. So in short, Boise State still has a chance and is slightly favored in its battle with the No. 18 Aztecs.

 

But as for if this is actually going to come to fruition, I don’t see it happening. San Diego State is coming into this showdown in Boise with a six-game winning streak and is on a defensive-high, meaning they’ve gotten back to doing what’s worked for them. They gave up 71 points to New Mexico, which is a lot, but they scored 73 in the victory on Friday in Albuquerque.

 

Darrion Trammell had 18 points, but the true hero of the night was Lamont Butler hitting a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Aztecs an improbable win over a tough conference foe. Butler finished with 10 points and shot just 4 of 11 from the floor, but who tends to care when you can make shots like that?

 

“I got the ball with around 5 seconds to go,” Butler said. “I got to half court and I fumbled it a little bit. As soon as I looked up, there were 2 seconds left and I knew I had to let it go. I’m just happy the shot went in."

 

San Diego State has responded extremely well since losing 75-66 at Nevada-Reno back on Jan. 31, holding four of their next six opponents to 61 points or less. They’ve also gone 4-1-1 in their last six against the spread. It’s hard to think you can’t trust them right now no matter the game; whether it be a defensive struggle or if you somehow outscore them, you better be solid on defense at your own end.

 

“I was calm,” Butler said. “I knew Dutch (Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher) drew up the play for me, so I knew I had to make a play to win the game. So many hours I put in, I came out today and shot the shot and I’m glad it went in.”

 

Going to Boise and getting a win won’t be easy, especially considering the Broncos gave up a gigantic opportunity in their 74-68 overtime loss at San Jose State last Friday. Chibuzo Agbo scored 17 points, and four starters scored in double figures, but the biggest loser here? Max Rice going 4 of 18 from the floor and finishing with 12 points. If he doesn’t take that many shots, maybe there’s a win there. But alas, the Spartans pulled off the upset and now San Diego State is in the driver’s seat.

 

The Broncos have also been abysmal on the books as of late, failing to cover in seven straight (0-6-1). They are also going to be favored for the sixth straight game, so none of this is a good sign.

 

Boise State got ran out of Viejas Arena back on Feb. 3 by 20 points. I don’t think it’ll be that extreme this time, but Boise State has been keeping games too close for my liking. San Diego State wins another conference title, as the basketball gods have foretold. San Diego State 75, Boise State 67

San Diego State is 6-4 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

San Diego State is 1-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

Boise State is 7-12 ATS as a favorite this season.

Boise State is 0-6 ATS in February this month.

PG: Darrion Trammell

SG: LaMont Butler

SF: Matt Bradley

PF: Keshad Johnson

C: Nathan Mensah

PG: Marcus Shaver Jr.

SG: Max Rice

SF: Naje Smith

PF: Chibuzo Agbo

C: Tyson Degenhart