by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Feb 21, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID
Where to watch: CBSSN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Boise State -2
BetMGM: Boise State -2.5
Caesars: Boise State -2
Season record
San Diego State: 17-6 (9-3 MWC)
Boise State: 21-6 (12-2 MWC)
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San Diego State - Boise State preview and analysis
San Diego State analysis
This sounds the potential to be a state game for the San Diego State Aztecs on Tuesday then they face the Boise State Broncos.
San Diego State is only five game winning streak and he's currently making the charge up the Mountain West Conference standings with five games to go in the regular season. The Aztecs were coming off a 17 point victory at Fresno State on Saturday, one of the more sneaky teams in the Mountain West. Chad Baker-Mazara led the way with 20 points off the bench in the victory, giving SDSU 17 on the season.
Keshad Johnson was the only other player to score in double figures with 13 points and five rebounds, but once again the Aztecs defense led the way holding Fresno State to just 34 percent shooting from the floor.
Whenever we talk about San Diego State the one thing that always comes up when evaluating this team and how far away to go, has always been predicated on the defense and we know that San Diego state's defense is going to provide a stifling wing lockdown defense that will give every team it faces fits, including the Mountain West Conference tournament.
San Diego State will always have calling card ready to go to my face with the likes of Boise State, Wyoming, or Colorado State. The thing we need to remember is that there has to be somebody that's willing to score the ball whenever they need a big basket, and at this current point in time it's hard to find a team they had so few chances on offense.
San Diego State cannot figure out a way to score the basketball. And if they can't figure out a way to make it happen, it will not be a fun postseason adventure for the Aztecs this season.
Boise State analysis
The Boise State Broncos have suddenly found themselves with some competition in the top Mountain West Conference. And surprisingly enough, it isn't who we thought it would be. I initially thought that it would be their opponent on Tuesday that would be the tough team to face at the top of the conference.
The Wyoming Cowboys are the team that now or is he savings to worry about going forward. Boise State has lost two of its last six games, with one of them going against Wyoming on February 3rd. Since that time though, Boise State has won four of its next 5 with winds over UNLV, Air Force, and Utah State. If we need to count San Jose State as the other one by default, so be it.
Marcus shaver led the way with 20 points and he also had two assists in Boise state's victory against Utah State on Saturday, their 21st victory of the season. Abu Kigab had 17 points, and Boise shot 52.4 percent from the field and needed only to go 5 of 17 from 3-point range during a comfortable second half.
The thing about Boise State is that the Broncos are very good. They are a deep team with a very solid defense, and have the ability to knock off many teams I need given night. The thing that concerns me about Boise State come on and it was evident against Utah State the other night, is that Boise State has had trouble playing well in the first half. Boise State did outscore Utah State by 12 in the second half, but even going so far back to the UNLV game a couple weeks ago and it’s been a problem for Boise as of late.
You can't expect to not only win a conference championship playing this way but you can also expect to not be in the NCAA tournament as a formidable team if you keep doing this type of performance. And until Boise State gets that under control, then perhaps it is time to anoint Wyoming as the better team in this conference.
Prediction
I bring up the whole situation involving San Diego State defense and Boise state's inability to play well in the first half as a correlation of sorts. When you take both of those factors into account, the one team that it favors the most surprisingly enough, is Boise State. If they are able to turn it up to a second gear when needed most, the Broncos will be able to win this game and cover by the slightest of margins. Boise State is one of the better home teams in the Mountain West and I have no doubt in my mind that they will deliver when need be. Give me the Broncos in what should still be an entertaining game. Boise State by 6
Betting trends
San Diego State is 143-129 ATS on the road since 1997.
The under is 127-86 when San Diego State goes two straight games of giving up nine or fewer offensive rebounds.
Boise State is 33-24 ATS as a favorite in the past three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
San Diego State:
PG: LaMont Butler
SG: Trey Pulliam
SF: Matt Bradley
PF: Keshad Johnson
C: Nathan Mensah
Boise State:
PG: Marcus Shaver Jr.
SG: Max Rice
SF: Abu Kigab
PF: Tyson Degenhart
C: Mladen Armus
Statistical leaders
San Diego State:
Points: Matt Bradley -- 17.0
Rebounds: Nathan Mensah -- 6.7
Assists: Trey Pulliam -- 3.6
Boise State:
Points: Abu Kigab -- 13.8
Rebounds: Mladen Armus -- 8.1
Assists: Emmanuel Akot -- 3.0
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
