San Diego State Aztecs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/24/2023

by Rod Pearson

Thursday, Mar 23, 2023
Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Friday, March 24, 2023
Venue:  KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
Where to Watch:  TBS


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SDSU +7.5, Alabama -7.5; Over/Under:  137 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  SDSU +7.5, Alabama -7.5; Over/Under:  137 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SDSU +7.5, Alabama -7.5; Over/Under:  137 points

Season Record

San Diego State Aztecs:  29-6 (15-3) (1st place, MWC)
Alabama Crimson Tide:  31-5 (16-2) (1st place, SEC)

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Recent Form
San Diego State Aztecs:  5-0  last 5
Alabama Crimson Tide:  5-0  last 5


San Diego State Aztecs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Analysis


San Diego State is coming into this game with a 29-6 record overall and they are 6-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 6 game winning streak with wins coming against the Wyoming Cowboys, the Colorado State Rams, the San Jose State Spartans, the Utah State Aggies, the College of Charleston Cougars, and the Furman Paladins in their last game. Micah Parrish led the team in points in that game with 16 while Darrion Trammell was next on the team with 13 points. Lamont Butler led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Nathan Mensah led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 50% from the field, 30% from 3-point range, and 78.6% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 71.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 63.1 PPG against them. San Diego State has an ATS record of 17-15-2 this season and their O/U record is 14-20.


Alabama is coming into this game with a 31-5 record overall and they are 7-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 5 game winning streak with wins coming against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the Missouri Tigers, the Texas A&M Aggies, the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders, and the Maryland Terrapins in their last game. Jahvon Quinerly led the team in points in that game with 22 while Brandon Miller was next on the team with 19 points. Mark Sears led the team in assists in that game with 3 while Charles Bediako led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 39.7% from the field, 28.6% from 3-point range, and 75% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 68.2 PPG against them. Alabama has an ATS record of 20-15-1 this season and their O/U record is 16-19-1.



San Diego State vs Alabama Prediction

The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama had a very good season with their 31-5 record overall as they were the best team in the SEC all year and even went on to win the SEC Tournament. They were also really good on neutral sites with their 7-2 record in those games and they have been rolling lately with 5 wins in a row now. They have been great in the NCAA Tournament too with their 1st 2 wins coming by double digits and now they are going to have a very good defensive team on their hands here. San Diego State was also a very good team all season with their 29-6 record overall making them the best team in the Mountain West and the Champions of the Mountain West Tournament too. They were also 6-3 on neutral sites this season and have won 6 games in a row now, but Alabama is easily the best team they have faced in all of those games. San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country but Alabama can really pour on the points and with the more defensive style of San Diego State here, they will have to keep this game close the whole time to have a chance or they won't be able to come back from behind. Alabama looks like the strongest team left in the tournament right now and they are going to continue rolling like they have been in the first 2 rounds. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game. 

San Diego State Alabama Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 24, 2023 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Alabama 84 SDSU 64.
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NCAAB Betting Trends


San Diego State Aztecs: 11-20 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better. 10-19 ATS after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite. 9-2 UNDER as an underdog.
Alabama Crimson Tide: 16-6 ATS after a win by 10 points or more. 29-18 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders. 12-7 UNDER after a game where they covered the spread.

Key Injuries


San Diego State Aztecs:  None.
Alabama Crimson Tide:  B. Miller (F) Prob Fri - Groin.

Notable Quotes


“You should play your best at the end of the season, and we're playing our best basketball at the end of the season. Obviously we hang our hat on defense. That's the one thing that we do every game. Then when we get the opportunity, we start making shots and play good offensively, then we're very good.” - Brian Dutcher after his team’s win against Furman in their last game. 


“It seems the more he goes, the looser it got. He didn’t have the same pop. He was 3 of 11 on 2s. A lot of those were at the rim. His finishing has been really good. He definitely wasn’t 100%. He’s a tough kid. He’s playing through some stuff. He doesn’t let people know he’s hurt.” - Nate Oats after his team’s win against Maryland in their last game. 


Starting Lineups


San Diego State Aztecs
M. Bradley 
L. Butler 
K. Johnson 
N. Mensah 
D. Trammell

Alabama Crimson Tide
C. Bediako 
J. Bradley 
N. Clowney 
B. Miller 
M. Sears

Statistical Leaders


San Diego State Aztecs
PPG: M. Bradley (13)
APG: D. Trammell (3.6)
Reb/G: N. Mensah (5.8)

Alabama Crimson Tide
PPG: B. Miller (19.6)
APG: J. Quinerly (3.7)
Reb/G: N. Clowney (8.2)

Coaches:
San Diego State Aztecs: Brian Dutcher (6th season)
Alabama Crimson Tide: Nate Oats (4th season)


Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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