by Rod Pearson
Friday, Aug 28, 2026
Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, August 29, 2026
Venue: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Where to Watch: MLB TV
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Padres +109, Rays -132; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Padres +110, Rays -130; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Padres +110, Rays -130; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
San Diego Padres: 72-62 (2nd place, NL West)
Tampa Bay Rays: 79-54 (1st place, AL East)
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Recent Form
San Diego Padres: 6-4 last 10
Tampa Bay Rays: 5-5 last 10
San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview and Analysis
The Padres are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 72-62 record overall and have a road record of 31-34. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .703 OPS. Casey Mize is their starting pitcher on Friday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA this season. His team won 7 of their last 8 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 0 SO on 4 hits through 6 IP against the Minnesota Twins.
The Rays are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 79-54 record overall and have a home record of 43-23. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 7th in the MLB with a .731 OPS. Shane McClanahan is their starting pitcher on Friday while Nick Martinez is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 13-4 with a 2.93 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 4 strikeouts on 1 hit through 6 innings pitched against the Baltimore Orioles.
Padres vs Rays Prediction
The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 79-54 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 43-23 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked really good in their games this season with their 72-62 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL West. They haven't been a great road team though with their 31-34 road record this year. The Padres are 6-4 in their last 10 games and have been hot over the last 2 weeks, but they just lost a series at home to the Pirates and are starting to cool off. The Rays are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have looked a lot better in their home games this season and they are going to have the better pitching matchup here. The Rays are going with Martinez in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 13-4 with a 2.93 ERA and he has been one of their best starters all season. He is coming off another great start giving up no runs which has been a common theme for him this year and the team has been having success with him lately, winning 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Padres are going with Buehler in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA and he has been giving up a lot of runs all year. The team has had a ton of success with him lately, winning 7 of their last 8 games with him starting, and he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start too, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the Rays do have the stronger offense to lean on here. Look for the Rays to take advantage of this pitching matchup at home where they have looked so much better this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game.
Padres Rays Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Saturday, August 29, 2026 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 5 Padres 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
San Diego Padres: 261-208 (+30.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 120-114 (+12.4 units) on the moneyline in road games. 99-94 (+30.3 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 16-6 UNDER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5.
Tampa Bay Rays: 93-120 (-20.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 37-35 (-4.8 units) on the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start. 157-160 (-5.7 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 9-3 UNDER against NL West opponents.
Key Injuries
San Diego Padres: J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. M. Andujar (DH) Ten Day IL - Wrist. S. Taylor (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. J. Adam (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. L. Giolito (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Tampa Bay Rays: V. Mesa Jr. (RF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. G. Jax (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. B. Williamson (2B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Fraley (RF) Sixty Day IL - Groin. C. Wilcox (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“The strength of our bullpen is the length of it. Not just the top guys. But everybody in that ‘pen.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s win against the Pirates in their game on Wednesday.
“Encouraged by everything he did. I think he’s built off every outing, but certainly the last two innings in Baltimore [on Friday]. More impressive, and it carried into today’s start. Big, big win and he set the tone early on.” - Kevin Cash on Freddy Peralta after his team’s win against the Tigers in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF
Jake Cronenworth (L) 2B
Manny Machado (R) 3B
Ty France (R) 1B
Jackson Merrill (L) CF
Luis Rengifo (S) LF
Gavin Sheets (L) DH
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Freddy Fermin (R) C
Tampa Bay Rays
Yandy Díaz (R) DH
Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B
Junior Caminero (R) 3B
Liam Hicks (L) C
Chandler Simpson (L) LF
Jonny DeLuca (R) RF
Richie Palacios (L) 2B
Jorge Mateo (R) SS
Cedric Mullins (L) CF
Statistical Leaders
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Gage Workman (.333)
Hits: Fernando Tatis (147)
Home Runs: Manny Machado (24)
RBI: Manny Machado (72)
Stolen Bases: Fernando Tatis (30)
Wins: Randy Vásquez (10)
Saves: Mason Miller (32)
ERA: Mason Miller (0.96)
Tampa Bay Rays
Batting Average: Liam Hicks (.309)
Hits: Yandy Díaz (152)
Home Runs: Junior Caminero (35)
RBI: Junior Caminero (84)
Stolen Bases: Chandler Simpson (35)
Wins: Drew Rasmussen (14)
Saves: Bryan Baker (38)
ERA: Manuel Rodríguez (0.00)
Managers:
San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)
Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
